It's "pretty much" 0-0 in post season. Chiefs, Browns, Bills, Ravens...should chill. Just get in it
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I mean, the Chiefs aren’t going 17-0, but the line at 12.5 and he’s taking the under??

Like, outside of catastrophic injuries, there’s NO WAY this team loses 5 games in the regular season. They lost one last year (not counting the last game since they rested their starters) and they are arguably a more complete team this year. We lost Watkins at #2 WR (but he didn’t play half the year anyway due to injury), so a little downgrade there. But every other position group we should be stronger at.
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If we were 15-1 it’s pretty hard not to regress record wise. Even though I expect we will be a better team.
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That’s the going thing now from the experts. The Chiefs are going to regress.
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And Mahomes won't be elite because of the turf toe injury
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Simms is all in on Buffalo because Allen did well against Packer 2nd string in a preseason game.

He must have missed Spags has his number.
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He is probably looking at the schedule and playing the numbers. Probably thinking we split with the Chargers and Raiders. That would be 2 right there. Then 7 opponents that could potentially cause some issues. 4-3/3-4 is where I am thinking he is leaning there.

Wk 1 vs. Cleve
Wk 2 @ Balt.
Wk 3 vs. Chargers - div. game
Wk 5 vs. Buff.
Wk 6 @ Wash. - great DEF
Wk 7 @ Tenn.
Wk 9 vs. GB

then in a span of 4 games play the Chargers the 2nd time and the Raiders twice.

Wk 16 vs. Squeelers.

Front end of the schedule is a motherfucker this year.
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Let me start by saying my gut completely and totally agree with you. I believe that the Chiefs will win more than 12 games.

However, when you look at the schedule, there's an argument that KC wins just 12 games. It's a tough schedule. The Chiefs will face potentially 6 playoff teams in the first 11 weeks. And in the final 6 games there are two potential playoff teams. And 3 out of the final four games are away. So there is an argument that the Chiefs could win just 12 games in 2021.

Not that it matters. I already bet $100 that KC would win 14.
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Actually he doesn't. Read the chart. The line on Buffalo is 11 wins, and Sims took the over.

The Chiefs line is 12.5 wins and he took the under, so he has Buffalo ahead of the Chiefs.
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KC has previously manhandled every team on that list except the Chargers...and were competitive vs. GB with Moore at QB.

They whipped Buffalo twice and steamrolled the Ravens...were up 19-3 on the Browns before PM went down.

Trying to see where 4 more losses stem from...are the Chiefs 25% worse this season with an improved OL?

My guess is 3 losses all year...if Mahomes stays healthy.
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Kelce is the straw that stirs the drink. he has been incredibly healthy during is career. interesting to see how they look if he misses some time he will be 32 this year
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Don’t care.

Just go 3-0 or 4-0 in the playoffs.
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Not necessarily. I didn’t click the link but if we’re going just off the chart, all he’s saying is he believes the Bills win more than 11 games and the Chiefs win less than 13. Since he doesn’t specify (at least on the chart) how many wins for each team, it’s likely he has them both at 12 wins.

Like any number oddsmakers set, you’d (people in general) be shocked at how close to accurate team total numbers end up by the end of the year. This is off the Simms deal, but basically the .5 attached to the 12 for the Chiefs indicates Vegas is squarely torn between 12 or 13 wins for the Chiefs, while agreeing that the most likely scenario for the Bills is 10, 11, or 12 wins. So, by that nature, Vegas has the Chiefs ranked ahead of Buffalo, even if Chris Simms does not.
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Hill presents the most challenges for a defense and creates the most "space" for everyone else, because he forces teams to keep at least one and usually two safeties deep... and forces them to work to disguise it.

So I would argue he's the biggest piece they can't do without.

Kelce's importance is obvious, though with an improved OL/run game AND an improved TE room behind him (Noah Gray, Jody Fortson, and even Blake Bell all offer much more than the 2nd TE could last year) the Chiefs may reduce some of his importance to being functional offensively.

Drafting Gray, keeping Fortson... both are moves made with the idea of providing some Kelce relief.
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Never heard of Chris Sims.
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