Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
At the same time, if you think Rice is 'a great fit and will work out' then does it really matter if you take him at 31 when he was the 45th player on your board?
When you're talking similarly ranked players (and as many of us have said over and over again, 20-60 in this draft seems awfully similar), does it really matter much if you 'reach' by 10-15 picks if you're not going to get the guy at 63?
It was Pioli's biggest weakness as a GM, IMO -- he didn't try to game the draft any. He took the guy at the top of his board and then again when the next pick came up. I think that approach is just too simplistic. If you can look at various levels of player, see that you have a guy you might like more but who seems more likely to fall and who has better replacements around him if he doesn't, then you deviate a bit from your pure rank order.
That was something I really liked when I heard Veach talk about the Cook pick. They wanted him at 53 according to Veach. But when the WR room cleared out, they went ahead and took Moore figuring that Cook would continue to slide to their pick at the back of 2. It was straight up gaming the draft by Veach and it worked out.
That's really the only scenario where I can see Rice being the pick. They OTs are cleared out, DE looks relatively fungible and Rice is their favorite WR option on the board. So they take Rice thinking that a similar level of DE will still be there at 63.
Maybe it works and maybe it blows up in their face, but over large numbers (and with a GM that has a good feel for the draft) it's going to work more often than it doesn't.
With the tiers, yes I think that's how you've gotta do it.
My thing is I can't see a situation where Rice is at that point when 31 comes up in terms of what's left on the board, paired with the rest of the WRs that will be there.
Now the issue is they get cleared out by the time 63 rolls around and we're in trouble. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
With the tiers, yes I think that's how you've gotta do it.
My thing is I can't see a situation where Rice is at that point when 31 comes up in terms of what's left on the board, paired with the rest of the WRs that will be there.
Now the issue is they get cleared out by the time 63 rolls around and we're in trouble.
But if you scout the guy and think "That's Brandon Aiyuk" it sure is difficult to say "yeah, but he's not worth 31..."
Now you're just getting into player evaluation. If the Chiefs take Rice at 31, its gonna be because they see him as an Aiyuk kind of player. We know this because we KNOW that Veach will game a draft. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
But if you scout the guy and think "That's Brandon Aiyuk" it sure is difficult to say "yeah, but he's not worth 31..."
Now you're just getting into player evaluation. If the Chiefs take Rice at 31, its gonna be because they see him as an Aiyuk kind of player. We know this because we KNOW that Veach will game a draft.
Absolutely.
My issue would again be, there may be a rusher there who they think higher of or a OT there etc.
There's a way the board could fall that this is the ideal scenario and hell, maybe they do just rate him that high. [Reply]
We should remember too that when Aiyuk was drafted @ 25 there were a lot of people who thought he was a reach. People expected guys like Tee Higgins and Chase Claypool etc to go well before him. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
We should remember too that when Aiyuk was drafted @ 25 there were a lot of people who thought he was a reach. People expected buys like Tee Higgins and Chase Claypool etc to go well before him.
This is kind of a reason I'm skeptical of Ross.
The NFL has a place for those big body contested catch guys. I'm not reallllly sure the Chiefs with Mahomes do. [Reply]
My issue would again be, there may be a rusher there who they think higher of or a OT there etc.
There's a way the board could fall that this is the ideal scenario and hell, maybe they do just rate him that high.
Then that's who they'll take.
I don't dislike the idea of using a 3rd to move up in 2 and grab Rice, but man that 3rd round pick is right in the meat of the depth of this draft.
But lets say you come out of this thing with McDonald/Murphy/Wright and Rice as your haul over the first two days. And you have a lot of firepower to take flyers on day 3.
You'd have to be happy with that, right? Even if it's just two players? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
We should remember too that when Aiyuk was drafted @ 25 there were a lot of people who thought he was a reach. People expected guys like Tee Higgins and Chase Claypool etc to go well before him.
Yeah, the story feels real simliar; it's the irony of the Aiyuk comparisons for me.
Because Aiyuk was absolutely my guy in the 2nd. And it seemed like he might get there. I wanted him real bad with that 2nd so when he went in the first I was like "Dafuq? Y'all are dicks..."
Something very similar could happen with Rice. And with Aiyuk, by the time the draft rolled around I'd talked myself into him being a reasonable pick in the 1st round. It might end up playing out the same way here. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Then that's who they'll take.
I don't dislike the idea of using a 3rd to move up in 2 and grab Rice, but man that 3rd round pick is right in the meat of the depth of this draft.
But lets say you come out of this thing with McDonald/Murphy/Wright and Rice as your haul over the first two days. And you have a lot of firepower to take flyers on day 3.
You'd have to be happy with that, right? Even if it's just two players?
Absolutely. I'm good with that.
I'd be better with trading down 10 spots, getting an extra 3rd and taking Rice there, then whoever pass rusher you like but I digress. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Then that's who they'll take.
I don't dislike the idea of using a 3rd to move up in 2 and grab Rice, but man that 3rd round pick is right in the meat of the depth of this draft.
But lets say you come out of this thing with McDonald/Murphy/Wright and Rice as your haul over the first two days. And you have a lot of firepower to take flyers on day 3.
You'd have to be happy with that, right? Even if it's just two players?
Absolutely, and 2 4ths make it a lot easier to swallow trading that 3rd. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Absolutely. I'm good with that.
I'd be better with trading down 10 spots, getting an extra 3rd and taking Rice there, then whoever pass rusher you like but I digress.
If I can get Wright and a 5th year option, I'm taking that plus giving my 3rd to move up for Rice.
I mean it's an intriguing thought, but you've effectively gone from:
Wright (w/ an option)
Rice
to:
Rice
2nd
A pair of 3rds.
Don't you trade a 2nd and a pair of 3rd for a 5-year starting RT 10 times out of 10?
EDIT: Just playing with the draft boards and using the transitive property, the 31 overall pick is worth about 63, 75 and 95.
So if the 3rd you'd get in the trade back is in the middle of the 3rd, the 'draft value' is roughly similar. I just think I'd rather have the closer dart throw, to use your analogy. And the 5th year option for a high value position group is just a cherry on top. [Reply]
Counterpoint: Our 3rd only moves us from about 63 to maybe 50. I'd say your target is actually going to be Miami at 51 given their relative lack of picks. There's a real chance Rice doesn't make it that far.
Meanwhile if you're skittish about him falling that far maybe you can get LV to move from 38 to 31 and give you 100 in the exchange? Or Carolina gives you 39 and 93? Though they've given up so much draft capital that seems unlikely. That would seem to lock you into Plan B but lordy that could blow up on you.
You give up 31, 63 and 95 for 42, 43 and 112 from the Jets?
At that point you're just kind fucking around, though. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
If I can get Wright and a 5th year option, I'm taking that plus giving my 3rd to move up for Rice.
I mean it's an intriguing thought, but you've effectively gone from:
Wright (w/ an option)
Rice
to:
Rice
2nd
A pair of 3rds.
Don't you trade a 2nd and a pair of 3rd for a 5-year starting RT 10 times out of 10?
EDIT: Just playing with the draft boards and using the transitive property, the 31 overall pick is worth about 63, 75 and 95.
So if the 3rd you'd get in the trade back is in the middle of the 3rd, the 'draft value' is roughly similar. I just think I'd rather have the closer dart throw, to use your analogy. And the 5th year option for a high value position group is just a cherry on top.
I'm doing all that under the assumption that Wright isn't there at 31. If he is, this is all moot and I'd take him.
The issue is who are they gonna come up to want to draft enough to trade up with me for vs me thinking "shit I like that guy to" and just taking him.
In your scenario, yeah, I'm taking the RT and moving on.
In my scenario, it's a bevy of pass rushers that I think are all about the same and Rice, then yeah, I'd just take him and move on.
The more we've talked thru it, I don't think trading down makes sense. [Reply]
Alot of this is gonna come down to some things we can't really know. Do they like where Niang is? Do they trust him to play RT this season and or get a cheap vet to do that?
That would essentially take alot of these tackles off the board unless you think they can be a LT and move your new LT back to RT. [Reply]