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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Chief Pagan 01:43 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
The report, issued Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, found that — as in other countries — the oldest patients had the greatest likelihood of dying and of being hospitalized. But of the 508 patients known to have been hospitalized, 38 percent were notably younger — between 20 and 54. And nearly half of the 121 patients who were admitted to intensive care units were adults under 65, the C.D.C. reported.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6912e2_w
Thanks.

I've been looking for data on this from a reasonable source.
[Reply]
Fat Elvis 01:44 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
I hope that argument is correct but if it is that means close to a million people have the virus so its not even remotely as lethal as we think.

No matter how you slice it it looks like shutting the country down is very questionable when compared to H1N1.
You "shut the country down" not because you will have 100% compliance, but because if you can get even 25% compliance (oftentimes by eliminating typical points of congregation) you significantly slow the transfer of the virus. It was the right move.
[Reply]
BigRedChief 01:44 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Yeah, I'm not generally a 'pile on' sort as I like to tell people they're idiots in my own special way.

But c'mon - if you don't realize the impact of the restaurant and hotel industry on our economy and how devastating it will be to America when we shut those down, I think you can probably bow out of the 'WE HAVE TO SHUT IT DOWN!!!' conversation.

These are EXACTLY the concerns that so many people are trying to raise and being shouted down over.

And it's only the tip of the iceberg if we cannot find a path forward.
I was trying to find exact data on the number of employees more than the general “a lot”. Trying to find reputable numbers beyond the industry numbers. CNN said 7 million jobs lost. Pardon me for trying to find the correct number and not just accepting what the industry or CNN says.
[Reply]
Donger 01:45 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Did you read what we were discussing?
Yes. Testing.
[Reply]
BigRedChief 01:45 PM 03-19-2020

Imagine spending your entire life raising a kid and this is how they turn out. https://t.co/SyKI5SvEcp

— Chelsea Handler (@chelseahandler) March 19, 2020

[Reply]
Marcellus 01:46 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis:
You "shut the country down" not because you will have 100% compliance, but because if you can get even 25% compliance (oftentimes by eliminating typical points of congregation) you significantly slow the transfer of the virus. It was the right move.
If we had 1MM cases of H1N1 on day 72 of the outbreak and we didn't shut the country down, and you are saying the only reason we don't have that many positives right now in the US is because of testing, how do you justify the difference?

If we have 1MM current cases then the mortality rate is in alignment with H1N1.
[Reply]
Marcellus 01:48 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Yes. Testing.
So how many current cases do you think exist we don't know about?
[Reply]
Chief Pagan 01:49 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Some may disagree with these numbers but that's your choice...

We are currently running at a 1.45ish% death rate which as sad as it is, is actually better than it was last week by a full 1% and is eeking downwards.

And just to clarify this is based on the total number of deaths divided by total cases, active and closed.

By contrast, using the same process, Italy is running at an 8.3% rate
Yes. And as long as our hospitals don't get overwhelmed we can keep it there.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 01:49 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
I was trying to find exact data on the number of employees more than the general “a lot”.
Okay but ultimately "a whole fuckin' lot" is probably sufficient for the purposes of the conversation when the thesis is "why haven't we just closed every restaurant and bar already?!?!?!"

Even if you don't know the exact numbers, if you aren't aware of the massive scope in SOME capacity then it's a real hard conversation to meaningfully involve yourself in.

At that point you're just dogmatically espousing a position rather than actually analyzing anybody's.
[Reply]
Chief Pagan 01:50 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Italy has now surpassed China in deaths. There is something wrong going on over there.
Its almost as if they didn't take it seriously enough and their hospitals got overwhelmed and their death rate shot up.
[Reply]
Donger 01:51 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
So how many current cases do you think exist we don't know about?
I have no idea, but I'd guess in between 5 and 10,000. We'll never really know for certain.
[Reply]
DaneMcCloud 01:51 PM 03-19-2020
There is absolutely no doubt that the Federal government will need to enact a "Freeze" on mortgages, rent, utilities and loans.

Otherwise, we're going to see a massive amount of civil unreset, which may lead to far more deaths than a "contained" virus.
[Reply]
loochy 01:51 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
So how many current cases do you think exist we don't know about?
500k to 1 mil
[Reply]
Marcellus 01:53 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
I have no idea, but I'd guess in between 5 and 10,000. We'll never really know for certain.
10,000 max? I mean if that's the case the shutdown is a huge mistake.

I honestly cant come up with a justification for this craziness when you look at how fast H1N1 spread and we didn't come close to doing this to our country.
[Reply]
Marcellus 01:53 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by loochy:
500k to 1 mil
Then its not that dangerous of a bug.
[Reply]
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