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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Mock 1/8
kccrow 08:37 PM 01-08-2019
I present to you my latest drivel...

The Chiefs fire Bob Sutton in the offseason and hire Steve Spagnuolo, a former Reid assistant and Jim Johnson protege, as defensive coordinator.

Chiefs beginning cap space of $42,967,636 using estimate of $190,000,000 salary cap per OTC (NFL stated range of $187.0 to 191.1 million).

Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill: It's imperative to lock up the team's most dynamic player long-term and give Mahomes a weapon for the foreseeable future. Hill must be retained and he won't get cheaper.
5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.13 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00
Notes: Hill will earn the NFL Proven Performance Escalator for the last year of his rookie deal which means his base salary will increase to the Right of First Refusal tender amount. That amount was $1.907 million in 2018 and increases by the percentage the cap increases with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 10%. The NFL has stated a cap range between $187.0 and $191.1 million, which means Tyreek's 2019 salary will be between $2.012 and $2.056 million. I will err on the high side at 2.056 for tenders and PPEs.

DL Chris Jones: I've been preaching the same thing Andy Reid mentioned not too long ago: the quickest route to the QB is a straight line and having defensive lineman that can get after them up the middle is better than good edge rushers in today's NFL that sees QBs get the ball out quicker than ever. Jones has stepped up his game considerably and we should project that to continue.
5 years, $81.0m contract extension with $40.0m guaranteed at signing including $20.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.98 2020: 13.00 2021: 15.00 2022: 16.00 2023: 17.00 2024: 16.00

Note: These moves and Tyreek's performance escalator reduce 2019 cap space by $9.336m. Both extensions done after June 1 (noted later).

Tags/Tenders
FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.05m (Hoping KC reaches an extension agreement to lower the hit)
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus


Cuts

SS Eric Berry: Eric Berry, despite his leadership, has been available far less than a player making his salary should be. It's time to move on and get guys in here that are available. The move is a June 1st designation which frees up an additional $9.55m in 2019 after June 1 and $5.50m in 2020 with dead money of $6.95m in 2019 and $8.00m in 2020. This cap space used to sign extensions noted above.

SS Daniel Sorensen: Sorensen hasn't been much of an asset since signing his extension, routinely missing tackles and being subpar in coverage assignments. The Chiefs ailments in the back end are extensive and require re-tooling. The move frees up an additional $2.693m in cap space in 2019 and $4.75m in 2020 with dead money of $2.0m in 2019.

FA Acquisitions

DL Rodney Gunter (ARZ): Gunter has started to look like a good football player in 2018 and seems to have the work ethic to continue ascending. The Cardinals are in a huge state of flux with coaching changes coming and it will be interesting to see who they try to retain. While Gunter should be on that list, I've also seen alot of players hit the market during such situations that I didn't expect to. Gunter is a big guy at 6'5" 305 and he's got good quickness off the snap and speed to close. I have him valued similarly to Abry Jones(4-yrs/15.5m) and Justin Ellis (3-yrs/13.5m)
[I]4 years, $17.75m with $4.00m signing bonus and $6.75m fully guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 4.00 2020 4.25 2021 4.75 2022 4.75

CB Ronald Darby (PHI)
Darby is a bit of a gamble coming off an ACL injury, but if he's on track in March he could still see a pay day similar to Allen Robinson. I'm going to go all out here and sign him to a lucrative deal that has some protections in it should the Chiefs need to release him after one season. He's a far better corner than anyone on the Chiefs roster.
5 years/$65.5m with $16.5m guaranteed, a $10.5m signing bonus, and $14.25m in potential additional guarantees including roster bonuses of $3.0m in 2020 and $4.0m in 2021 as well as a salary guarantee of $7.25m in 2020 if he's on the roster the 5th day of those respective league years. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 12.50 2021: 13.75 2022: 14.75 2023: 16.25

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): Williams has had alot of injuries throughout his career but he's still extremely young and has flashed what made him a high round pick. He'd make an excellent number two type with solid hands, route running, and blocking ability.
3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75


Re-signings

OLB Dee Ford: Ford has developed into one of the premier edge rushers in the NFL, so letting him go would be a tough pill to swallow. Ford will fit perfectly in Richard's defense That said, re-signing him with the extensions of Hill and Jones will force the Chiefs' hand in the handling of the future salary cap.
5 years/$86.00m with 41.00m guaranteed at signing including a 20.00m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 13.00 2020: 16.00 2021: 17.00 2022: 20.00 2023 20.00

FB Anthony Sherman: Sherman is one of the better fullbacks in the league and is excellent on special teams. His volume of usage offensively gives me pause, but if there's space to sign him then I'd undoubtedly do so.
4 years/$8.4m with $5.0m guaranteed and $2.4m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.00 2021: 2.20 2022: 2.30

All PS on Minimal Deals that likely don't affect Top-51.

Let Walk

DE Allen Bailey, CB Orlando Scandrick, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Spencer Ware, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Steven Nelson, ILB Terrence Smith, WR Chris Conley

Players Already Signed Notes & Guesstimates
Damien Williams: I'm guessing that the Chiefs structured William's extension almost identically to that of the Redskins' Chris Thompson who signed a 2 year extension worth 7 million with 1.1 million in incentives. Based on that, I'd estimate Williams to have potential cap hits of 3.55 and 4.55 million in 2019 and 2020 if he hits incentives and 3.05 and 4.05 respectively as a baseline since I'm guessing 0.1 million is something like workout bonuses likely to be earned and the other portion is 500k per year in performance incentives.

Austin Reiter: The extension for Reiter was released a couple weeks back and for all intensive purposes has cap hits of 1.46 and 2.76 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Cap Estimate Net of Transactions: 3.98m pre-June 1 / 5.53m post-June 1

Draft

Chiefs have a projected 6th round compensatory selection for Bennie Logan.

1. CB Trayvon Mullen, Clemson (6'1" 190)
2. SS Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Florida (6'0" 208)
2. RB Alexander Mattison, Boise State (5'11" 215)
3. LB Ryan Connelly, Wisconsin (6'3" 237)
5. OG/RT Zach Bailey, South Carolina (6'5" 315)
6. CB/FS Kareem Orr, Chattanooga (5'11" 195)
6. TE Kahale Warring, San Diego State (6'5" 250)
7. RB/WR Tony Brooks-James, Oregon (5'9" 180) [f/SF]

Not going to get into to many specifics on the draft because you all research the prospects too but I'm going to say Mullen really impressed me in the national championship game. Kareem Orr was a stud at FS for Arizona State before he transferred to Chattanooga and moved to CB. He could be a forgotten gem.


Roster (Not representative of 53)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Damien Williams, Alexander Mattison, Darrel Williams
FB: Anthony Sherman
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Kahale Warring
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, Tony Brooks-James, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Dieter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Andrew Wylie
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Cameron Erving, Zach Bailey, Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie
OC: Austin Reiter, Jimmy Murray
DE: Chris Jones, Rodney Gunter, Joey Ivie
NT: Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams, Justin Hamilton
OLB: Justin Houston, Dee Ford, Breeland Speaks, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Rob McCray
ILB: Anthony Hitchens, Dorian O'Daniel, Ryan Connelly, Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland
CB: Ronald Darby, Kendall Fuller, Trayvon Mullen, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
FS: Eric Murray, Kareem Orr
SS: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Armani Watts, Jordan Lucas
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester
[Reply]
TambaBerry 09:25 PM 01-08-2019
Ronald fucking Darby for that much?
[Reply]
The Pest 09:40 PM 01-08-2019
A TE that I would look at on a cheap one year deal? Tyler Eifert.
[Reply]
CoMoChief 10:24 PM 01-08-2019
Horrible draft
[Reply]
Chargem 01:38 AM 01-09-2019
Originally Posted by TambaBerry:
Ronald fucking Darby for that much?
He's probably the stand out corner in the FA market, even with the injury. He's going to get paid. Plus, Malcolm Butler got $61m/5 last year.

It's not a bad pick up if the Chiefs do it but the thought of overpaying makes me balk..

Originally Posted by CoMoChief:
Horrible draft
Why? I don't love it, but it seems decent. Add a little on the offense but mainly focusing on the D, my only concern would be safeties.
[Reply]
Cave Johnson 06:55 AM 01-09-2019
Originally Posted by Chargem:
He's probably the stand out corner in the FA market, even with the injury. He's going to get paid. Plus, Malcolm Butler got $61m/5 last year.

It's not a bad pick up if the Chiefs do it but the thought of overpaying makes me balk..



Why? I don't love it, but it seems decent. Add a little on the offense but mainly focusing on the D, my only concern would be safeties.
Butler was a jamoke for the Titans this year.
[Reply]
O.city 08:36 AM 01-09-2019
I would much rather trade picks for a corner than I would sign Darby. I just am not a fan.
[Reply]
Mr_Tomahawk 09:09 AM 01-09-2019
Eh...

...You've done better.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 10:58 AM 01-09-2019
I actually really like the top of the draft. Mullen is my favorite CB target where we'll likely be taking given his size/athleticism and Gardner-Johnson presents a potential steal (provided you can keep his head on straight; some weird history there).

Not at all a fan of the Mattison pick, though. I have to believe there will be better RBs on the board if you're committed to that position and much better players to be found elsewhere. I'm not wholly opposed to RB there depending on how the board falls but I don't like Mattison specifically. Ryan Connelly...exists. I have nothing to really say about him. I'd probably prefer we look at interior OL with that pick if he's the best of the edge defenders still sitting around at that spot. He just doesn't seem to have a true fit anywhere. Seems more of a SAM in a 4-3 than someone with a home in a 3-4. I guess they could view him as a long-term hybrid LB/SS but that's kinda what O'Daniel is for. I dunno - can't see a role I really like for him on this squad.
[Reply]
Chargem 03:08 PM 01-09-2019
Originally Posted by Cave Johnson:
Butler was a jamoke for the Titans this year.
I had to google jamoke, but I think I agree with you about Butler. Darby is definitely a much better player in my opinion, which is why I think he probably gets a better deal.
[Reply]
kccrow 08:35 AM 01-10-2019
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Ryan Connelly...exists. I have nothing to really say about him. I'd probably prefer we look at interior OL with that pick if he's the best of the edge defenders still sitting around at that spot. He just doesn't seem to have a true fit anywhere. Seems more of a SAM in a 4-3 than someone with a home in a 3-4. I guess they could view him as a long-term hybrid LB/SS but that's kinda what O'Daniel is for. I dunno - can't see a role I really like for him on this squad.
Connelly, to me, is the better pro prospect at LB coming out of Wisconsin. All the hype goes to T.J. Edwards but he's slow. Connelly is a really good player in all facets. He's not the jump off your screen guy, he's just the guy always getting the job done doing a lot of dirty work. Sticks his nose into the gap to close things off. Even if he can't make the tackle he's forcing a guy to make a decision and flow to others. I love his game much more than guys like Pratt, Dye, and so on who don't take on blocks. I think he fits perfectly on the inside in a 3-4.

And thanks for a thought out response. I'm not sure what to make of most of the posts in this thread because there isn't much I can do with "this sucks" and so on. What sucks? Why does it suck? I will say that my original rendition of this had Deiter from Wisconsin as the 2nd rounder over Mattison and then Armstead at RB in the 5th. That's the only change I made last minute.
[Reply]
Buehler445 10:43 AM 01-10-2019
You think Sherman will command that much? I mean, that's a pretty small number to bitch about, but I'd try and get the guy on a ST type contract.

I don't disagree that cutting Berry is the right call - I honestly have no idea WTF is going on there. However, I think it is unlikely they cut him. I'm guessing he has the surgery and we try to get him recovered for 19.

I'm still holding out hope he is just saving everything for this 3 game run, then has the surgery, and we get some semblance of Eric Berry back. At this point, It's about as likely as me landing the Bezos divorce settlement, but that's what I'm hoping.

Anyway, I bet he has the surgery because I doubt he could get an injury settlement without it.
[Reply]
Buehler445 10:45 AM 01-10-2019
Originally Posted by TambaBerry:
Ronald fucking Darby for that much?
Dudes are getting paid. Check this out. There are some garbage guys making bank.

https://overthecap.com/position/cornerback/
[Reply]
TambaBerry 12:08 PM 01-10-2019
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
Dudes are getting paid. Check this out. There are some garbage guys making bank.

https://overthecap.com/position/cornerback/
there are some shit corners making a ton of money
[Reply]
O.city 12:10 PM 01-10-2019
Yeah, that's why I'm just not sure about Darby.

Unless you can get him on a better deal because of the ACL tear, i'm just not a fan.

I'd rather send a 2nd to Arizona for Peterson or something.
[Reply]
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