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The Lounge>Chiefs open as 4.5 point favorites vs the Colts
TLO 08:06 PM 01-05-2019
Line has already moved to -5 in some spots.
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Chiefnj2 11:02 AM 01-07-2019
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Everyone needs to chill the **** out, if you really think the Chiefs don't win this game with the damn MVP QB you are honestly just an abused fan. You're like a dog that flinches anytime someone reaches for it.
Said all Chief fans before the last Chargers game.
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Mecca 11:04 AM 01-07-2019
Originally Posted by Chiefnj2:
Said all Chief fans before the last Chargers game.
If you really think they'll lose playoff games "just because" why are you watching?

That sounds like an exercise in frustration.
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TEX 11:07 AM 01-07-2019
Originally Posted by Mecca:
It's literally nothing more than history, the colts were a 1-5 team, the 6 seed coming to the 1 seeds house.

Look at their schedule they beat a bunch of power puffs, they had I believe the easiest schedule in the league and the one team they played that had a good record was Houston..and their schedule was 29th.

I'm not gonna crown them when they've really done nothing but beat shit holes.
All true friend... But I see Luck, Hilton, Mack, Ebron, and the best OL in the NFL that is capable of imposing their will on our DeTards. I get your point, that Mahomes & Co will light them up too, BUT I see their semi decent defense as being the ones who get the needed one or two stops here and there to put them in position to win this game.
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DJ's left nut 11:11 AM 01-07-2019
Originally Posted by deadman:
False, uneducated statement. They weren't stomping the Saints, Rams, Patriots but they blanked the Cowboys and embarrassed the Texans and Titans. That's something.

The Colts haven't played many nationally televised games so it not likely that you know much about them other than seeing highlights. Andrew Luck IS playing the best football of his career and we have a dominant O-Line that is opening big holes in the running game and keeping Andrew clean in the pocket. The D is opportunistic and will force your O to dink and dunk down the field with the hope that more plays = more opportunities to create a turnover.

The Chiefs are fun to watch and Mahomes has been playing great for sure. Colts will look to control the clock with a solid run game. I do not anticipate a 40+ scoring game but somewhere in the 20s.
That 'opportunistic d' isn't as good as a handful of defenses the Chiefs have faced this year and KC hasn't been below 26 at all this season.

The Colts are such a similar team to the Chiefs. The Colts run a somewhat passive scheme because apart from Leonard they're a team of JAGs. I mean am I really going to act like Kenny Moore is a shutdown DB? Desir and Walker are...fine. Autry came out of nowhere this year and had a very good year, but he's still a guy that didn't stick with Oakland and got 7 of his 9 sacks against Houston and Jax. I dunno...not gonna lose sleep there. I like Sheard; very underrated player but still someone who I'd say is merely good.

They aren't a dynamite defense; but rather a couple of good players and a bunch of complementary pieces that look to avoid collapsing around them. The Chiefs are the same animal on defense IF they can get representative play from Lucas and Ward (thank God the Parker era is over...).

They play a Cover 2 shell to keep plays in front of them and wait for the QB to make a mistake. And that's not a bad plan with their personnel but it's not a plan that's going to shut down what the Chiefs do. Mahomes at home should be able to avoid the kind of braindead crap that Watson pulled; he's simply an entirely different animal. And frankly, Travis Kelce should be able to go for 8/135 and a score fairly easily against them. I don't see them having the athleticism in the back end to be able to do any kind of Cover 1 looks with Hill out there so Kelce's just gonna be a brutal matchup for them. If they try to bracket him, I could see Williams being huge out of the backfield but not just on swings - they'll have him out there on wheel routes, etc... and attack the intermediate zones with him.

Offensively they're also very similar to KC but I simply like our guys a little more. Kelce's better than Ebron, Hill's better than Hilton and I'd take Mahomes over Luck (though Luck's played incredibly well this year). Their interior OL is better than ours but I like our tackles better and I think our edge rushers can do some work there, especially with Nelson likely having his hands full with Jones.

My biggest worry, both ways, is going to be 3rd downs. The Colts, when they're going well, are seeing a lot of 3rd and shorts and Luck is a surgeon there. He's like Brady - on 3rd and 5 or fewer, he's not going to get sacked and he's probably not going to miss. So you just have to hold on and pray that a DB makes a play - never a great place to be in for this team. On offense the Chiefs have been in more 3rd and longer situations than I like to see of late. That's when that Cover 2 shell can really shine for the Colts. So if this game goes Indy's way, it will likely turn on 2nd down - can the Chiefs do well enough defensively on 2nd to force 3rd and 7s or longer and can the Chiefs do well enough offensively to keep those 3rd downs shorter for them and force the Colts into more aggressive decisions on defense that I don't think they have the overall personnel to handle well.

We shall see, but I like our chances.
[Reply]
chiefzilla1501 11:15 AM 01-07-2019
Originally Posted by deadman:
False, uneducated statement. They weren't stomping the Saints, Rams, Patriots but they blanked the Cowboys and embarrassed the Texans and Titans. That's something.

The Colts haven't played many nationally televised games so it not likely that you know much about them other than seeing highlights. Andrew Luck IS playing the best football of his career and we have a dominant O-Line that is opening big holes in the running game and keeping Andrew clean in the pocket. The D is opportunistic and will force your O to dink and dunk down the field with the hope that more plays = more opportunities to create a turnover.

The Chiefs are fun to watch and Mahomes has been playing great for sure. Colts will look to control the clock with a solid run game. I do not anticipate a 40+ scoring game but somewhere in the 20s.
They went 1-1 vs the titans. Both games started by Gabbert. Titans had a handful of Gabbert games and somehow indy got 2 of them. Wouldn't rack that up as an accomplishment.

I think it will be a shootout. Indy will establish the run. But chiefs will go up tempo and score in a hurry. If the Colts go cover 2, the Chiefs will attack the zone, not dink and dunk.
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DJ's left nut 11:20 AM 01-07-2019
Originally Posted by TEX:
All true friend... But I see Luck, Hilton, Mack, Ebron, and the best OL in the NFL that is capable of imposing their will on our DeTards. I get your point, that Mahomes & Co will light them up too, BUT I see their semi decent defense as being the ones who get the needed one or two stops here and there to put them in position to win this game.
I just cannot forget the Anthony Castonzo that spent 3/4 of his career getting his QB blasted. He looked like he'd figured something out in '14 but from 15-17 he stalled and/or regressed. Maybe he found it again this year but I can't get there. And I liked Braden Smith coming out but and he's had a nice year but he's still ideally a guard. I think he's going to be just a tick overmatched by Ford's speed especially with Ford making major strides in technique that will be able to punish Smith if he tries to cheat.

I like that interior line, don't get me wrong. And they play extremely well as a unit. But Jones and Bailey are just so physically imposing that they're pretty tough to handle straight up so I don't see the Ts getting a lot of help in this game. That's where the Chiefs will have to do their damage. And Mack is an efficient running between the tackles (better vision than I'd expected) but he's not an incredibly powerful guy there so if Jones, Nnadi and Bailey can muck that up in there, they can get him turning sideways and slow him up...I hope.
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Chiefnj2 11:36 AM 01-07-2019
Originally Posted by Mecca:
If you really think they'll lose playoff games "just because" why are you watching?

That sounds like an exercise in frustration.
Being a fan of the Chiefs is the definition of an exercise in frustration.

KC should win. They have better offensive weapons with a QB playing better than Luck. But, you can't ignore how bad the defense is and Andy Reid's history of being out-coached in the 2nd half of big games. And, ever since the loss of Hunt, loss of Watkins and Hill's foot injury the offense hasn't been as potent as early in the season.

One thing you see time and time again in the playoffs (and not just from the Chiefs) is that the problems you have in the regular season are magnified in the postseason. An unreliable kicker, a player who fumbles, etc. You saw it yesterday.

I was extremely jealous watching the Chargers yesterday because Gus Bradley showed the ability to adapt and gameplan better than anything Sutton has been able to do in his tenure in KC.

I don't know what the Texans did exactly in the second half of their game, but whatever it is I'm hoping Sutton picked up on it and the players can half-way execute it.
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chiefzilla1501 11:46 AM 01-07-2019
Originally Posted by Chiefnj2:
Being a fan of the Chiefs is the definition of an exercise in frustration.

KC should win. They have better offensive weapons with a QB playing better than Luck. But, you can't ignore how bad the defense is and Andy Reid's history of being out-coached in the 2nd half of big games. And, ever since the loss of Hunt, loss of Watkins and Hill's foot injury the offense hasn't been as potent as early in the season.

One thing you see time and time again in the playoffs (and not just from the Chiefs) is that the problems you have in the regular season are magnified in the postseason. An unreliable kicker, a player who fumbles, etc. You saw it yesterday.

I was extremely jealous watching the Chargers yesterday because Gus Bradley showed the ability to adapt and gameplan better than anything Sutton has been able to do in his tenure in KC.

I don't know what the Texans did exactly in the second half of their game, but whatever it is I'm hoping Sutton picked up on it and the players can half-way execute it.
I'm a big critic of Andy Reid game managing.

But this game feels different. It reminds me of the Houston win where we walked in with every built in nervous tick but we flat out rolled them. I've been skeptical of every chiefs playoff game in decades. I'm not nervous about this one. We'll take care of business and we'll roll them. Our defense might surprise with some recent adjustments. But it doesn't matter... Because our offense will roll no matter what Sutton does.
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BWillie 12:02 PM 01-07-2019
Originally Posted by TEX:
You're wrong about Andrew Luck. There is nothing overrated about him. He is very good. Dude can beat you with his arm and legs. He'd be in the MVP conversation if it were not for Mahomes.

Do not underestimate the Colts. They are good. Can the Chiefs beat them? Yes. However, 'Hamas' said it best when he said, "The Colts do everything that a team needs to do, in order to beat the Chiefs." And Andrew Luck is a huge part of what the Colts do well.
Then how come he throws more garbage time TDs than anyone else?
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TEX 12:11 PM 01-07-2019
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Then how come he throws more garbage time TDs than anyone else?
I don't know that he does. You seem to though, so I'll take you for your word on that one...However, this is what I do know - This season he is playing the best football of his career. He is legit, is very good and very smart.

If I didn't have Mahomes as my QB, I'd want Luck over anyone else in the league. I bet most would agree with that also. I'd just pray that he shaves his neck beard. That really grosses me out!
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TEX 12:14 PM 01-07-2019
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I just cannot forget the Anthony Castonzo that spent 3/4 of his career getting his QB blasted. He looked like he'd figured something out in '14 but from 15-17 he stalled and/or regressed. Maybe he found it again this year but I can't get there. And I liked Braden Smith coming out but and he's had a nice year but he's still ideally a guard. I think he's going to be just a tick overmatched by Ford's speed especially with Ford making major strides in technique that will be able to punish Smith if he tries to cheat.

I like that interior line, don't get me wrong. And they play extremely well as a unit. But Jones and Bailey are just so physically imposing that they're pretty tough to handle straight up so I don't see the Ts getting a lot of help in this game. That's where the Chiefs will have to do their damage. And Mack is an efficient running between the tackles (better vision than I'd expected) but he's not an incredibly powerful guy there so if Jones, Nnadi and Bailey can muck that up in there, they can get him turning sideways and slow him up...I hope.
Hope you're right! I just know the Texans have a pretty darn good D-line and front 7, and they didn't come close to Luck all day. But you are right in that the Guards did cheat and help the Tackles defend Watt and Clowney. Maybe they can't do it as much against Jones & Co. Well see....
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ptlyon 12:51 PM 01-07-2019
Up to 5 according to The Score
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deadman 01:14 PM 01-07-2019
Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501:
They went 1-1 vs the titans. Both games started by Gabbert. Titans had a handful of Gabbert games and somehow indy got 2 of them. Wouldn't rack that up as an accomplishment.

I think it will be a shootout. Indy will establish the run. But chiefs will go up tempo and score in a hurry. If the Colts go cover 2, the Chiefs will attack the zone, not dink and dunk.
False again. Colts beat the Titans both times 38-10 and then 33-17. The first game was started by Mariota but he got hurt midway.
[Reply]
deadman 01:17 PM 01-07-2019
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Then how come he throws more garbage time TDs than anyone else?
Garbage time TDs? As in, the Colts are winning and still scoring points? Not sure the Colts have had much garbage time this year getting blown out.
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notorious 01:27 PM 01-07-2019
Deadman has been polite and talking football instead of a toolshed douche.

I hope you weather the storm. We have fans from all over the league, and if you get through the hazing you might just find a place here.
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