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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Stock market on pace for worst December since Great Depression
Lex Luthor 03:25 PM 12-18-2018
Originally Posted by :
The stock market is on pace for its worst December since the Great Depression

Two benchmark U.S. stock indexes are careening toward a historically bad December.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are on pace for their worst December performance since 1931, when stocks were battered during the Great Depression. The Dow and S&P 500 closed Monday down 7.6 percent and 7.8 percent this month, respectively.

December is typically a very positive month for markets. The Dow has only fallen during 25 Decembers going back to 1931.

The S&P 500 averages a 1.6 percent gain for December, making it typically the best month for the market, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

While the S&P 500 began dissemination in 1950, the performance data was backtested through 1928. It’s worth noting that historically, the second half of December tends to see gains.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/wors...r&par=sharebar



"The worst December since the Great Depression". "Market down over 1,000 points since the GOP tax plan was passed".

Wow.
:-) Are the Trump supporters getting tired of all this winning yet?

To be fair, you can't really blame the plunging Dow on the tax cut. Although it can be argued that adding $2 Trillion to the debt can't be good for the stock market, most analysts agree that it's more likely that Trump's idiotic trade war is the cause.

The recent performance of the Dow does show us two things:
  1. Trump is an idiot. Trade wars are NOT good, and they are NOT easy to win.
  2. The tax cut is not the magic cure-all that the GOP believes it to be. All it did was add $2 Trillion to the debt.

I'm just glad I pulled my 401-K funds OUT of the stock market when I did. I'm not putting them back in until after Trump leaves office. Of course, the way things are looking, that will probably be Q2 of 2019.
[Reply]
Lex Luthor 08:48 AM 12-19-2018
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
Obama has ONE rate hike in 8 years

Trump has had SEVEN rate hikes in two years....

You have to look at multiple factors to determine if a economy is good or bad. Considering Obama had only ONE rate hike and the economy only got over 3% for 1-3 quarters during his presidency is pathetic.

If Trump has less rate hikes the economy would look amazing when it comes to the DOW. The fact the FED is hiking rates is another indication of a strong economy .


No one can factually argue Trumps economy isn’t amazing.

Employment UP
Wages UP
Manufacturing jobs UP
Dude, Obama inherited an economy that was in deep recession. The Fed doesn't hike interest rates during a recovery from a recession. That's basic Econ 101. Do you honestly not remember that?

Here's the thing. I voted for Bush. I voted for McCain. I voted for Romney. I voted AGAINST Obama BOTH TIMES he ran for President.

The difference you and me is that I'm willing to look at historical results and change my position because I have more information now than I had back then. Obama inherited a disastrous economy from Bush. During his tenure the economy turned completely around. Trump inherited a great economy from Obama. If you refuse to accept that, you are being blinded by your extreme partisan beliefs.

Originally Posted by :
Fact check: Did Trump pull off an 'economic turnaround?'

"The Economy is soooo good, perhaps the best in our country’s history," Trump said on Twitter on Monday.

Two presidents boasted about the strength of the American economy this weekend, each claiming credit for the steady growth and declining unemployment as President Donald Trump seeks to parlay the nation's economic success into a winning midterm message for his embattled party — and former President Barack Obama reminds voters just when the boom began.

"When you hear how great the economy's doing right now, let's just remember when this recovery started,” Obama said on Friday in a speech that marked his first foray into the upcoming elections. "I mean, I'm glad it's continued, but when you hear about this economic miracle that's been going on, when the job numbers come out, monthly job numbers, suddenly Republicans are saying it's a miracle. I have to kind of remind them, actually, those job numbers are the same as they were in 2015 and 2016."

Trump disparaged the speech, at one point saying he fell asleep during it.

“If the Democrats got in with their agenda in November of almost two years ago, instead of having 4.2 up, I believe honestly you'd have 4.2 down,” Trump said Friday night, speaking of GDP growth. “It was the weakest recovery in the history of our country since, I guess, to be totally specific, because I'm not sure they've gone any further, since the Great Depression.”

“The Economy is soooo good, perhaps the best in our country’s history,” Trump wrote on Twitter on Monday.

Earlier this summer, he stood on the South Lawn of the White House and boasted about achieving a "turnaround of historic proportions" — an "economic miracle."

The economy's success or failure depends on much more than who sits in the Oval Office, but let's take a look at the facts here.

WAS THE ECONOMY STRUGGLING WHEN TRUMP TOOK OFFICE?

Absolutely not. Trump inherited a booming economy with low unemployment and steady job growth — an easy win on day one — and he quickly claimed credit. Early in his presidency, Trump boasted about job gains starting from his election onward, crediting Obama's final months as his own.

It is extremely unlikely that the GDP could ever have been negative 4.2 percent no matter who was elected in 2016. At the height of the 2009 recession, GDP was at -2.5 percent. It has not been at or above -4.2 percent in 86 years.

The economy was, however, struggling when Obama took office in 2009. He inherited a dismal economy in the middle of a recession that lasted 18 months, facing what many feared would be a depression, and was able to turn it around in the first years of his presidency. The U.S. is now its 10th year of economic growth, and in its longest period of growth with 95 straight months of job creation. The bulk of that decade of growth was under Obama’s presidency, and can fairly be credited to him.

Still, as Trump accurately points out, the recovery under Obama was marked by a slower rate of growth than what followed previous recessions, such as the recovery under President Ronald Reagan in 1983 and 1984.

BUT, WHAT ABOUT THE TRUMP EFFECT?

Trump's supporters say he's supercharged the economy. Now in the second year of his presidency, he has passed a major tax bill and rolled back a significant number of regulations, giving the economy another injection of capital — though economists disagree on the how much the tax cuts will really benefit the larger economy and whether it will have lasting effects to the economy.

Trump has surely seen some impressive data points in his first term: GDP growth has reached 4.2 percent, unemployment has reached its lowest point in half a century, and the stock market has reached new heights.

The president and his administration have been eager to tout the numbers. Kevin Hassett, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, kicked off the White House press briefing on Monday with a slew of charts. He said the growth is not an extension of a trend, but rather a "clear upward trajectory, way above the trend."

Economists aren't buying it: While the tax cuts probably helped inject some cash into the economy — particularly the stock market — the country has largely maintained the growth it saw under Obama.

The numbers Hassett touted, economists said, were cherrypicked to show a trend that economists say they're just not seeing.

"The entire story of claiming some major change in economic activity doesn’t ring true," said Harvard economist Benjamin Friedman. "I think there’s really very little to point to, and you’d have tell some story based on stock market. Any time the story hinges on the stock market, that means an economist is going to be very much on weak ground."

Hassett did correct Trump, who tweeted Monday morning that "the GDP Rate (4.2%) is higher than the Unemployment Rate (3.9%) for the first time in over 100 years!"

Multiple news organizations had fact checked the president's statement earlier in the day, and found "100 years" to be false. This type of relationship between the GDP and the unemployment rate had not happened in 10 years, Hassett confirmed in response to a question from a reporter.

"You'd have to talk to the president about where the number came from, but the correct number is 10 years," Hassett said. Trump has yet to correct his tweet.

Still, it's impossible to tease out Trump's economy from Obama's this early in the former's presidency. GDP last reached 4.2 percent during Obama's second term. And where workers are concerned, Trump's gains do not yet match his predecessor's. Since Trump took office, the country has added 3.58 million jobs, short of the 3.96 million jobs that were added in the final 19 months of Obama's presidency.

Economies do not grow overnight, or turn on a hair with a new presidency. While Obama can look back on his eight years and see his leadership play out, Trump's effect is still not yet known.

"In my view, the [Trump] effects are going to be much longer term — we shouldn't be looking at these indicators right now, which is just kind of a continuation," Harvard economist Marc Melitz said, citing tariffs and renegotiated trade deals as a top concern down the line. "It’s going to generate a lot of instability. Already you can see some of it in terms of higher prices for a lot of materials in the U.S."

Trump has previously said that the U.S. is enjoying the best economy in America’s history — a claim other fact checkers have ruled to be false.

But it certainly is one of the best, as Trump tweeted today — thanks in large part to Obama.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...-obama-n908286
[Reply]
Loneiguana 09:12 AM 12-19-2018
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
The market has been hovering around 23-25k all year, once a deal is made with China and Trumps Tax returns are felt this year watch 1st Qaurter (if china deal gets done) hit 3%+
You've made this predication every quarter (using a different "excuse") for over a year now.
[Reply]
Jim Hammer 09:30 AM 12-19-2018
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Are you denying what is printed on this chart?


Care to respond to this?
Lex answered your questions, now you need to answer his:

Originally Posted by Lex Luthor:
Serious questions:
  1. How do feed yourself?
  2. How do you dress yourself?
Inquiring minds want to know.
[Reply]
AllInThaGame 09:40 AM 12-19-2018
In this thread: a bunch of Trumpsters who have never cracked an Econ 101 book.
[Reply]
Eleazar 09:47 AM 12-19-2018
Through all the bumbling and stumbling, Trumpsters have been hanging their hat on the stock market, against all warnings that they would live to regret it.
[Reply]
stevieray 10:00 AM 12-19-2018
Originally Posted by tatorhog:
It makes me sad that Lex changed his avi from Belushi. I liked to think of him as a short, pudgy guy with pit stains bitching about everything people like.

the new avatar just feels dirty next to his name.
liberal genius?

Insecure.
[Reply]
Lex Luthor 10:03 AM 12-19-2018
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
Dunno. Prob about the same time he humiliated himself by calling Avenatri a “superstar”
What would be truly humiliating would be to send $100 a billionaire. You know all about that, don’t you?
[Reply]
Pogue 10:05 AM 12-19-2018
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor:
What would be truly humiliating would be to send $100 a billionaire. You know all about that, don’t you?
Why is that humiliating? Trump defeated Killary substantially in the EC.
[Reply]
stevieray 10:13 AM 12-19-2018
Originally Posted by Pogue:
Why is that humiliating? Trump defeated Killary substantially in the EC.
Lex is a liberal "now", he has to shame everyone to feel superior.
[Reply]
vailpass 10:16 AM 12-19-2018
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor:
The market isn't tanking because of the Fed doing its job. The market is tanking because of the global instability, uncertainty and fear that is caused by having a moron in the White House who thinks "trade wars are good and easy to win".



.
You don't know a whole lot about this Lex. You see this as a chance to paint Trump in a negative light and that's about as much as you know.

The longest we have ever gone without a recession is 10 years. How long has it been since the last recession? About 10 years.
Market correction is a necessity; it's what makes a market a market. Multiple factors feed in to market performance with interest rates both real and predicted being a very large factor.
[Reply]
Iowanian 10:16 AM 12-19-2018
It's odd to see Liberals actively cheering bad news for American investors.


You're outhouse rats chewing on peanuts.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 10:20 AM 12-19-2018
Gonna be hilarious when the market goes back up.

It always does.
[Reply]
Iowanian 10:22 AM 12-19-2018
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Gonna be hilarious when the market goes back up.

It always does.
I only have 1 stock down today(-4.x) while the rest are up a range of 1-8%.

Should have bought more yesterday.
[Reply]
patteeu 10:42 AM 12-19-2018
Sad man back. How’s it going, Lex?
[Reply]
patteeu 10:45 AM 12-19-2018
Originally Posted by tatorhog:
It makes me sad that Lex changed his avi from Belushi. I liked to think of him as a short, pudgy guy with pit stains bitching about everything people like.

the new avatar just feels dirty next to his name.
He was apparently going for the “lost his mind” connection he has with Schotenheimer.
[Reply]
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