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The Lounge>How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?
MMXcalibur 07:21 PM 11-21-2021
Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

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Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%
[Reply]
htismaqe 09:51 AM 12-08-2021
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
I'm referring to Football Outsiders. That place has usually been rock solid with these types of rankings because they are not as subjective.
Does FO have New England more than twice as likely to win it all as everybody else? Because that's absurd.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 09:53 AM 12-08-2021
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
Does FO have New England more than twice as likely to win it all as everybody else? Because that's absurd.
Yes. If you don't like math take it up with the universe. :-)
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 09:54 AM 12-08-2021
I expect NE to lose to Indy.
[Reply]
htismaqe 09:55 AM 12-08-2021
Originally Posted by wachashi:
The pure math systems really like the Patriots as well. DVOA has NE as the #11 offense, the #2 defense, and the #4 special teams, good for #2 overall on the year.

Looking at the last 10 games, the Patriots are far and away the best team using DVOA.

Not saying I agree that's the case in reality, but the numbers like the Pats, especially right now.
For sure, the numbers should favor them, especially DVOA.

That being said, does that give them more than double the chance of winning a championship as the Packers, Cards, Chiefs, Ravens, or any other team out there?

Fuck no. That's just dumb.
[Reply]
htismaqe 09:56 AM 12-08-2021
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Yes. If you don't like math take it up with the universe. :-)
There's things the "math" doesn't take into account. Like the fact that the Patriots have a rookie QB who has never taken a snap in the NFL playoffs.
[Reply]
htismaqe 09:57 AM 12-08-2021
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
I expect NE to lose to Indy.
And then Indy will get a 35% chance to win it all. :-)
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 09:57 AM 12-08-2021
NE is a good story for the media but I'm not buying it.
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 09:58 AM 12-08-2021
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
And then Indy will get a 35% chance to win it all. :-)
As I said earlier, Indy is a far scarier add if they get in then NE.
[Reply]
htismaqe 10:00 AM 12-08-2021
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
As I said earlier, Indy is a far scarier add if they get in then NE.
They still have Carson Wentz at QB. You never know which guy is going to show up any given week. Their running game is formidable but that alone isn't going to propel them to a SB anymore than it will NE.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 10:01 AM 12-08-2021
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
There's things the "math" doesn't take into account. Like the fact that the Patriots have a rookie QB who has never taken a snap in the NFL playoffs.
I think it does, though. Mac is 15th in DYAR and DVOA for QBs.

That means the rest of the team is so strong they can overcome a mediocre QB.
[Reply]
htismaqe 10:02 AM 12-08-2021
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
I think it does, though. Mac is 15th in DYAR and DVOA for QBs.

That means the rest of the team is so strong they can overcome a mediocre QB.
Possibly but I have to see it happen first before I'm gonna crown him. The playoffs are an entirely different animal and running game + defense has definite shortcomings, as Chiefs fans well know.
[Reply]
tredadda 10:04 AM 12-08-2021
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
I expect NE to lose to Indy.
And Buffalo the second time they play. I fully expected them and Buffalo to split their games.
[Reply]
O.city 10:05 AM 12-08-2021
A strong team with a QB that has to be carried by said team.

I can't quite put my finger on it, but I do believe I've watched that movie before.

Didn't care for the end.
[Reply]
htismaqe 10:05 AM 12-08-2021
I mean part of the reason Jones is sitting at about the league average in terms of analytics is because he hasn't turned the ball over a lot, which stands to reason because he hasn't been given a ton of opportunities to do so.

That is likely to change in the playoffs, when they'll have to be more diversified on offense, thus increasing his chances of making a rookie mistake or two.
[Reply]
tredadda 10:06 AM 12-08-2021
Originally Posted by comochiefsfan:
Jones won't beat Mahomes. But Belichick might.
No he won't. He never has. The two times KC lost to NE in the Mahomes era was because the KC defense played like garbage. Belichick has never been able to shut down Mahomes for an entire game.
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