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The Lounge>How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?
MMXcalibur 07:21 PM 11-21-2021
Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

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Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 12:26 PM 12-06-2021
Originally Posted by davewan:
Chiefs are on the losing end of several tie breakers. Right at this moment, the Pats, Titans and Ravens all have the tie breaker advantage on the Chiefs. If the Chiefs, Chargers and Bills all had identical records right now, the Chargers and Bills would have tie breaker advantages as well. A lot would have to fall just right for the Chiefs to end up as the 1 seed. The odds have to be pretty steep against that happening.
Bills fan?

I think Allen chokes tonight Da Quix.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 12:27 PM 12-06-2021
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey (shoulder) likely out for season

Ravens aren't beating us without Humphrey.
Yeah this was another major development for us.

Baltimore is pretty well fucked at this point given their schedule.

Tennessee is trash and has no prayer.

We only really need to worry about Buffalo and New England, and the play each other twice.

It's really set up well for KC right now IF they take care of bidness.
[Reply]
Spott 12:28 PM 12-06-2021
Originally Posted by BWillie:
We want New England to win tonight right? Buffalo has tie breaker on us as they beat us head to head.
At bare minimum, we want them to split the series. If NE wins tonight, it would be much easier for them to sweep Buffalo since the next game will be in Foxboro.
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 12:30 PM 12-06-2021
Originally Posted by Spott:
At bare minimum, we want them to split the series. If NE wins tonight, it would be much easier for them to sweep Buffalo since the next game will be in Foxboro.
It's pretty evenly matched. Supposedly weather will be a factor.

Bills fans insist Allen can't play well if there is a slight wind.

That tips this into NE's favor since their OL and Defense are better.
[Reply]
Mama Hip Rockets 12:37 PM 12-06-2021
Originally Posted by Mama Hip Rockets:
Gained on Bengals, Raiders, and Ravens today. Will gain on Broncos tonight and Patriots or Bills tomorrow.
Forgot that the Chiefs also gained 1/2 game on the Titans, who had a bye week.
[Reply]
DaFace 12:43 PM 12-06-2021
For what it's worth, 538's current model says:

27% Titans
25% Patriots
14% Chiefs
12% Bills
11% Ravens
8% Chargers
2% Bengals

I'd guess the Titans are a little high since the model doesn't know how to account for a missing all-star RB, but otherwise I think it's reasonable.

We want the Bills to win tonight, but honestly it really just comes down to the Chiefs winning out vs. not. The rest of it will wash out.
[Reply]
tyecopeland 01:11 PM 12-06-2021
Originally Posted by arrwheader:
So I think a Bills win tonight and loss later this week (to bucs), followed with a Chiefs win and a balt loss would put Chiefs up to 2 seed. If Tenn lost to jags again we would be the 1 seed in that scenerio.
I dont mind rooting for the bills. But I don't like having to root for the bucs in a week.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 01:16 PM 12-06-2021
I feel like the fans of every other AFC team are going to be so big mad at us in a few weeks.

In no way are we going to deserve that #1 seed :-)
[Reply]
KC_Connection 01:34 PM 12-06-2021
Originally Posted by DaFace:
For what it's worth, 538's current model says:

27% Titans
25% Patriots
14% Chiefs
12% Bills
11% Ravens
8% Chargers
2% Bengals

I'd guess the Titans are a little high since the model doesn't know how to account for a missing all-star RB, but otherwise I think it's reasonable.

We want the Bills to win tonight, but honestly it really just comes down to the Chiefs winning out vs. not. The rest of it will wash out.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...l/playoff-odds

Football Outsiders has it as 41.1% Patriots, 15.7% Bills, 14.3% Chiefs, 12.1% Titans, Ravens 7.2%, and Chargers 7.2%. It also thinks if the Chiefs win 4/5 they probably do it.

Although their system clearly thinks the Patriots are the best team in the AFC, which I'm less sure about yet.
[Reply]
loochy 01:55 PM 12-06-2021
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
I feel like the fans of every other AFC team are going to be so big mad at us in a few weeks.

In no way are we going to deserve that #1 seed :-)

The Chiefs would (theoretically) deserve it no less than any of the other teams.


There has been a lot of craptacular effort across the AFC this year. Maybe NOBODY should get the #1 seed (how would that work?).
[Reply]
tyecopeland 01:56 PM 12-06-2021
Originally Posted by loochy:
The Chiefs would (theoretically) deserve it no less than any of the other teams.


There has been a lot of craptacular effort across the AFC this year. Maybe NOBODY should get the #1 seed (how would that work?).
Allow an 8th afc team and make the 1 seed play them. :-)
[Reply]
JakeF 02:56 PM 12-06-2021
Much better now, things are dropping just right.

Still have 2 teams we've lost to with the same record as us. Our schedule isn't easy. We kinda need to win out. The Patriots look like a pita.

@Rams, @Cincy, @Denver
Steelers, Raiders

Our QB tends to play better on the road, so that helps.
[Reply]
JakeF 02:58 PM 12-06-2021
Originally Posted by BWillie:
We want New England to win tonight right? Buffalo has tie breaker on us as they beat us head to head.
I dunno. I think the Patriots are the better team now.
[Reply]
O.city 03:28 PM 12-06-2021
So we just need the Bills and Pats to split and the Bills to lose to the Bucs and the Chiefs just have to win out.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 03:30 PM 12-06-2021
Originally Posted by O.city:
So we just need the Bills and Pats to split and the Bills to lose to the Bucs and the Chiefs just have to win out.
Need TEN and BAL to drop one.
[Reply]
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