Just a rundown of some players I like. I'll use the OP as a collection of the posts I've made on them. (Strikethrough means they are returning to school.)
Originally Posted by Direckshun: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
There is an alternate universe where RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire became the back for us that he was for LSU. He offers some fundamentally sound running between the tackles, but is the third down back for eternity, whipping wheel routes and juking angle routes, creating separation in short yardage and chunking off 8 yard gains in near-unstoppable chemistry with Mahomes. Naturally, that never came to fruition, as (I'm guessing) his pass protection was so poor they never put him in obvious pass situations, and his between the tackles running, while initially exceptional, collapsed almost entirely after his injury his rookie year.
But we can rebuild him. We have the technology. And his reborn form would be Jahmyr Gibbs. A fundamentally sound running of a somewhat slight frame to allow him to get in and out of jukes in a hurry, Gibbs' primary talent comes from being effective in the passing game. He seems to have the route-running ability of a slot receiver sometimes, with far more speed upside than Edwards-Helaire had. He has great hands, good feel for zones, and far too much quickness for even the average NFL linebacker. He may be a more slight, but faster version of RB Joseph Addai.
I'm warning you: don't underestimate this as a future Chiefs pick. The Chiefs clearly value this type of running back (some might argue over-value). The Chiefs clearly believe they need this player. McKinnon is the closest we have, and he's entering the offseason as an oft-injured, 30 year old free agent. Edwards-Helaire is literally on the roster now but he's likely to be traded. And the Chiefs clearly value the position so much they were willing to spend a 1st round pick on it in 2020. Now, I don't value this type of RB as much as the Chiefs do, but I'm just a guy in a chair. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs make a move in the 2nd round, though, if he's still on the board.
I like him more than most but a more favorable draft value might just be Kenny McIntosh from Georgia. They are very similar and I bet McIntosh is a 3rd while Gibbs is probably a very high 2nd. I'd 100% support KC moving up in 4 for McIntosh if he slips. He's a McKinnon replacement for sure and could be electric in this offense. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun: DT Keeanu Benton, Wisconsin
In the NBA, there was an era with Shaq, with Dwight Howard, and even Tim Duncan, where teams just felt at the mercy of big centers chopping them down in the paint. So teams would go out and try to find big dudes to clog the lane, and sometimes over-invest, just anything to force these teams with powerful centers to beat them any other way. I wonder sometimes if the NFL may end up with the same reckoning as defenses become more athletic to try to take away more active passing games, and offenses inevitably counter with power. How much is taking the run game away worth it?
Your answer to that question is the answer to how valuable you think Benton is. Benton is the answer to "how do I clog up the line of scrimmage." You can run wide to get away from him. You can run sweeps to avoid him. You can pass over him. But you cannot run through him. Long arms, brute force, and absolute technically sound menace over the center, demanding double teams every time an offense thinks they have what it takes to enforce their will and run between the tackles. That's what Benton does, that's what he's good at, and he'll never make a single Pro Bowl ever. But you won't be able to run on him.
The value in that is unmistakable, and as a result, I think he's going to be more attractive to 3-4 teams than he will be to the Chiefs. But I think he has more value than some may give him credit for: the Chiefs have very good linebackers to cover off tackle runs. They have a growing, young secondary that will only get better. By far the weakest spot on the defense by the end of the year was up the gut, to the point where they had to bring in DT Brandon Williams to shore it up. If you can have that brick wall in the middle of your line all year on first- and second-downs, what would you spend to build it? I'd spend a second and sleep easy.
I really like Benton. He was a fantastic wrestler as well. I think in 50 matches he lost two. That gives him some real advantages with leverage, hand usage and stamina, just like Creed. [Reply]
Originally Posted by raybec 4:
I really like Benton. He was a fantastic wrestler as well. I think in 50 matches he lost two. That gives him some real advantages with leverage, hand usage and stamina, just like Creed.
I don't know if I could choose between him and Mazi Smith. There's a lot of mock drafts I've done where I've ended up snagging Benton if he's available in 2/3 rounds. I would not hate it at all if we grab either of them. I think Mazi Smith is stronger, more of a freak athlete, but I think Benton's wrestling background gives him an edge to his game. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kozzman555:
I don't know if I could choose between him and Mazi Smith. There's a lot of mock drafts I've done where I've ended up snagging Benton if he's available in 2/3 rounds. I would not hate it at all if we grab either of them. I think Mazi Smith is stronger, more of a freak athlete, but I think Benton's wrestling background gives him an edge to his game.
Id go with Smith, I think he has the higher ceiling and is the most likely to be an all round DT. But he probably goes between our 1st and 2nd picks [Reply]
Despite my recent anxieties over the state of the Chiefs salary cap in the wake of their Super Bowl win, there's probably no GM you can trust more in the NFL to work the cap better than GM Brett Veach. He has tough cap decisions to make this year, and my guess is after he extends LT Orlando Brown, Jr.., and DT Chris Jones (and S L'Jarius Sneed!?), he may have tough cap decisions to make next year. One of those will be a choice over retaining the physically gifted LB Willie Gay, Jr. There is a non-zero chance the Chiefs cannot retain him, and surely Veach knows that sooner than later.
There's no obvious replacement for Gay's skillset on this team right now -- nobody has his size/speed combination. But Henry To'o To'o (confusingly pronounced TOE-oh TOE-oh -- it's rural juror all over again) may fill the role and then some. He does lack Gay's size, but I think he gets great depth on his drops and can play the run better than any LB that is currently on our roster. Like LB Nick Bolton, he is always around the ball and racks up tackles as a result. Those stat sheets this season have been beautiful with the #1 and #2 tacklers most games being Bolton/Gay. Drafting To'o To'o keeps that going, and more consistently.
The thing you lose the most with a Gay-to-To'o To'o transition is the violence Gay plays with at the line of scrimmage. To'o To'o is a bobber and weaver, and that's a big area over his rookie season -- effectively a red shirt season -- where he can up his technique. Under Spags, the Chiefs have prioritized talent at the LB position, however, and if you're looking for the smoothest possible transition at the WLB position, To'o To'o makes more than enough sense if he's there in the 3rd round. [Reply]
The bottom of the WR depth chart has rarely looked better than it does in Kansas City right now, with maybe the best 4th/5th WR they've ever had in WR Justin Watson looking primed as a lay-up re-sign, with the promise of WR Justyn Ross and another GM Brett Veach reclamation project in WR John Ross. Who knows who can stick, but we know the Chiefs are drafting receiver, so we might as well expand our horizons at the position while we're examining prospects. One that may fly under the radar, since he flew under America's radar this past year, would be Cedric Tillman.
You've seen Tillman if you catch highlights of Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker, as Tillman is a favorite target. He also plays a style of offense that translates to solid success in the NFL. Here's the elevator pitch: Tillman is a big, fairly physical receiver who has fantastic deep speed but isn't particularly quick. He is going to a year or two of redshirting under Reid, since the Volunteers don't run a particularly complicated offense, but he is a reliable X receiver that, like WR Marques Valdez-Scantlin, teams will have to account for if they don't have their ducks in a row on the back line of the defense.
He's just not particularly dynamic, although I'll be fascinated by what his Combine says. He's a faster-then-quick guy who is fairly one-dimensional stylistically. But the things he can do, he looks really solid at them. If he can prove he has a bigger route tree ahead of him than what he's shown, I think he makes sense at the beginning of Day 3. For now, I might now ring that bell until the 6th comes along and you're just looking for contributors with upside. [Reply]
Easily one of the most polarizing players in this entire draft class, the team that selects Jaxon Smith Njigba early in the draft is the team that is betting entirely on its draft room prognostication. Because while Smith-Njigba has a lot of things going for him, he is a very difficult player to project. On top of how well he's going to perform in the NFL, the Chiefs will also have to ask themselves to what degree will he fit in their scheme. And all of this is going to raise a lot of question marks that, put simply, Smith-Njigba is going to have to answer at the Combine, at his Pro Day, in interview rooms, and at any Top 30 visits. Because he is as pure a question mark as you can get.
On the one hand, you want to project him as the next WR Keenan Allen. He's not particularly big, he's not particularly fast. But he's an acute route-runner and possesses excellent instincts against zones. He has a fantastic catch radius for a six-foot-zero WR, and by all accounts he possesses high football IQ. But he's a one-year wonder; he missed virtually all of 2022 with a hamstring injury. He was only productive in 2021, when he was flanked by two of the best WRs in the nation at the time, who both went on to set the NFL on fire their rookie seasons this past year. He played almost entirely out of the slot with clean releases, and it's just not clear what kind of player you're going to get if he becomes the focal point of the defense.
I see him and I think a role player. He's really good in the slot, where he can create short-area separation and pile up receptions, a poor man's Keenan Allen. But the Chiefs already have that guy twice over, with the same limitations in size and long speed, in WR Skyy Moore and WR Kadarious Toney. And Toney even shares Smith-Njigba's hamstring issues. This is a team that needs a true Z to blast open defenses with elite speed, or a true X to challenge over the middle if they don't bring back WR Juju Smith-Schuster. Smith-Njigba doesn't offer either of those skillsets, so he's simply not as valuable to the Chiefs as he will be elsewhere. I don't even know if he makes sense for this team in the first two rounds. [Reply]
Knowing what you know now, with the full power of hindsight behind you: where would you have taken DE Tanoh Kpassagnon if you had to do it all over again? Again, you have to draft him -- so what round would you have taken him. And my guess is almost none of us would have spent a 2nd rounder on him. We did win a Super Bowl with him, but he's just kind of a body that played the position not-horrifically, and that's someone you'd rather drop a midrounder on than a premier pick.
Enter: Zach Harrison. He is absurdly long and large for a pretty athletic passrusher, but he's close to being the exact same prospect. He was underproductive in college, however, when he's already faster and more powerful than most of his opponents. I don't know how that's going to translate when that advantage is largely reduced against NFL tackles. Kpassagnon was a virtual Greek god at the Combine, too, an absolute athletic freak. Harrison is freaky as well, but he's not on K-pass's level. He's long and strong, and is going to be able to get some push, and maybe refine some technique to leverage his way to the QB a few times a year. But the Chiefs already have a nicer version of that in DE George Karlaftis, and it's just not obvious to me that you want two of those guys starting as bookends.
He does play the run with nasty aggression, so his Venn diagram is a lot closer to being a circle with Karlaftis than it is with Kpassagnon. And with both DE Frank Clark and DE Joshua Kaindoh on the verge of being cut, the Chiefs may have to return to the passrusher well a few times, including in the middle rounds, where I think Harrison makes the most sense. I just don't think he offers the upside you like, but maybe in the midrounds they're just looking for a reliable body who can hold the fort down when called upon. [Reply]
Maaaaaaan, I feel like I like Xavier Hutchinson more than I should, but let me make my case. First, it seems increasingly clear to me that the cap is going to crunch the team a bit more this offseason than most, and I don't think they can go back to the well of simply restructuring QB Patrick Mahomes. They don't want a year where they're forced into paying Mahomes $70m against the cap because they kept restructuring, because he is only going to get better and they really don't want a year in there where they can't surround him with talent. So tough decisions are on the horizon, and I'm increasingly convinced that WR Juju Smith-Schuster is a really good player who the Chiefs won't retain.
That's a problem, too, because he was a target in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl that this team needed more than anything. So you need yourself someone with the upside to replicate that, which is what Hutchinson can deliver. He is one of the most statistically accomplished, consistent, game-tape-proven receivers in America. For a team that will ask receivers to do everything under the sun, Hutchinson has three years of game tape proving he can excel. He can create separation, he can block, he can win jump balls, he can play the boundary. I'm not a Bengals fan, but with them getting ready to let WR Tee Higgins go, Hutchinson feels to me like a guy with his exact skillset. He screams "Bengals receiver": He's big, he's got great hands, and he can win the YOLO balls.
As a bigger X-receiver, he lacks a lot of the dynamism that HC Andy Reid craves, and therefore may not make as much sense for the Chiefs tendencies as, say, WR Zay Flowers or WR Tyler Scott. But man, what if there's a run on receivers in the 1st and 2nd? You're sitting there in the 2nd round, maybe you spent a 1st on passrusher, and you're needing a weapon who is reliable enough to get the tough yards and earned catches in the 4th quarter of a future Super Bowl? Xavier Hutchinson makes sense to me. I don't see anybody listing this guy as a 2nd round prospect, so I know I'm an outlier here, but I really like this guy. [Reply]
For the record, C Austin Reiter has a futures contract signed with the Chiefs as of this week, and should he remain on the roster, he will be entering his eighth year in the NFL. So let us not underrate the value of offensive lineman who do their jobs, provide their teams the depth they so badly need, and somehow remain in the league past any reasonability in a vacuum. And that's likely the career Jarrett Patterson has ahead of him.
He has starter upside, as a smart lineman who has center experience calling out blocking assignments. A true "team protector," he has the profile of a guy who is going to have problems in one-on-one drills but when utilizing the chemistry of his teammates will be able to do his job competently. He's essentially NFL ready right now, and other than some strength & conditioning, I think he'd be the Chiefs' top interior lineman if they let OG/C Nick Allegretti and OT/G Andrew Wylie go.
And honestly, Allegretti is not a terrible comparison for him. He lacks a lot of Allegretti's nasty in the run game, but he is no finesse player himself. You can ask him to pull, you can ask him to combo block downhill, just don't ask him to do either for 17-games and expect a Pro Bowl performance. Backup lineman make their dime in this league by plugging the holes in the veritable dam without becoming a blatant liability. The Chiefs are set along their interior for at least the next two years, and have no need for starters. But there's always room for a Patterson in this league, and if he's still on the board, make him a pick in the 6th. [Reply]
At the end of the day, the Chiefs need to simply make the smartest draft picks for the best possible values. I personally believe the biggest need the Chiefs have at this time is at edge rusher, but if the best value with their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks are at some combination of WR, OT, and S, I can't complain. And if that's the case, hell even if they pick a DE early, it's not often you see a DE with third-day credentials who, I think boasts the upside of a starter in the NFL. But I think Isaiah McGuire fits that mold.
He's not a first- or second-day pick, probably, because he seems to lack the athletic profile and some of the technique that those earlier picks demand, so the Combine will be critical for him if he wants to sneak into the second day. But he's no slouch: he is 6'4", 270, and plays as ferociously as you like from an edgerusher who may be backing up DE George Karlaftis. Like Karlaftis, McGuire's effort on every single play is off the charts, and his good size makes him a particularly difficult end to move in the run game.
His play has ascended every year he's been at Mizzou, suggesting he's superbly coachable. Combining this guy with DL coach Joe Cullen and maybe under DE Frank Clark's tutelage suggests he has as much of a chance to reach his upside in KC as anywhere else. He is only going to get stronger, which he needs to do, and he's only going to further clean up his technique. This is another guy who could be primed for a late-rookie-season production explosion, and I think he has a fair chance to become a starter down the line. That is fantastic value in the 4th. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun: DE Zach Harrison, Ohio State
Knowing what you know now, with the full power of hindsight behind you: where would you have taken DE Tanoh Kpassagnon if you had to do it all over again? Again, you have to draft him -- so what round would you have taken him. And my guess is almost none of us would have spent a 2nd rounder on him. We did win a Super Bowl with him, but he's just kind of a body that played the position not-horrifically, and that's someone you'd rather drop a midrounder on than a premier pick.
Enter: Zach Harrison. He is absurdly long and large for a pretty athletic passrusher, but he's close to being the exact same prospect. He was underproductive in college, however, when he's already faster and more powerful than most of his opponents. I don't know how that's going to translate when that advantage is largely reduced against NFL tackles. Kpassagnon was a virtual Greek god at the Combine, too, an absolute athletic freak. Harrison is freaky as well, but he's not on K-pass's level. He's long and strong, and is going to be able to get some push, and maybe refine some technique to leverage his way to the QB a few times a year. But the Chiefs already have a nicer version of that in DE George Karlaftis, and it's just not obvious to me that you want two of those guys starting as bookends.
He does play the run with nasty aggression, so his Venn diagram is a lot closer to being a circle with Karlaftis than it is with Kpassagnon. And with both DE Frank Clark and DE Joshua Kaindoh on the verge of being cut, the Chiefs may have to return to the passrusher well a few times, including in the middle rounds, where I think Harrison makes the most sense. I just don't think he offers the upside you like, but maybe in the midrounds they're just looking for a reliable body who can hold the fort down when called upon.
He's very rigid, I think 4-5th round is right, though I expect he goes a little earlier. If we got a guy with a bit more bend earlier on I wouldn't mind double-dipping for Harrison later on. But that's probably the only scenario I can get behind it, and even then there's probably other positions I'd want to round out first [Reply]
Cedric Tillman is widely regarded as a 2nd or 3rd round prospect by almost everyone. Day 3 seems like a bit of wanting him to fall. I like him a lot more than you do and have him firmly in round 2. I see him in every way you don't and don't see him in any way you do. He doesn't have great downfield speed but he's a fantastic route runner that's quick off the snap and gets in and out of breaks with quickness to create his separation. He is fearless in traffic and makes some really tough catches. He's agile enough to make YAC. I watched Florida and Alabama games from 2021 and came away impressed with him even if he didn't have the best games (I think he had a couple of catches against Florida and a couple of bad false start penalties against Alabama). A lot of issues were some not-so-great QB play by Hooker last year and a scripted offense. He's a 50/50 blocker for me. Sometimes he's great other times he's not so great. He also needs to work 100% of the time when he knows the ball isn't coming his way, which he doesn't do all the time. He's a guy that I could definitely see in a JuJu role though and he's better than stats might suggest.
I really do like Xavier Hutchinson a bunch. I had him in mocks last year before he decided to stay another year. He's solidly a 3rd round player for me.
Like you, I'm not high on Harrison. I'm much higher on McGuire, who you mention. There's a lot to be said about measurements versus football players. McGuire is a a fucking good football player. Harrison is measurements that never amounted to a good football player. I'd take McGuire on day 2 and not even blink. If he's there in the 4th I'd be all fucking over it. I think of McGuire like Bolton. Sometimes a guy is just fucking good at his job.
Jarrett Patterson is widely thought of as a 3rd round pick. I see no conceivable way he's even remotely near the 6th round unless there is some medical I don't know about. He's far too good to fall that far. He might go 2nd round. He might go 4th round. But he sure as shit aint going in the 6th.
Smith-Njigba, for as good as much talent as was at Ohio State, was the best WR on the field in 2021. Maybe I'm just a homer, but he's insane. That said, his hamstring issue is a MAJOR concern, not his ability on the field. Sure, he lined up off the line primarily but he has lined up everywhere. The guy is a near-impossible cover. He's a more refined Kadarius Toney coming out. It's not his ability that is a concern because his ability is a top-20 draft pick. No doubts from me. [Reply]
Based off your description, I will absolutely give Tillman another look.
We are completely on the same page with Harrison & McGuire. I think McGuire has Tamba Hali upside — there’s got to be a better comparison. Hali was not gifted but he was ferocious and won with technique. McGuire is already ferocious, and I think he’s insanely coachable.
Glad someone else is high on Hutchinson — I am higher than everyone, so feel free to regard me as an outlier.
Patterson is probably worth more to others than us because we have an entire interior line established for the next 2-6 years. Keep in mind, this entire thread is through my eyes as a Chiefs fan, and I don’t like the Chiefs taking interior line until the third day.
Let me ask you this about Smith-Njigba: even if he’s as good as you say, do you not have hesitations regarding the fact that he’s a version of Toney/Moore, which we already have? The Chiefs need an X (assuming we don’t bring back Juju) and a Z (assuming we don’t bring back Hardman). [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Based off your description, I will absolutely give Tillman another look.
We are completely on the same page with Harrison & McGuire. I think McGuire has Tamba Hali upside — there’s got to be a better comparison. Hali was not gifted but he was ferocious and won with technique. McGuire is already ferocious, and I think he’s insanely coachable.
Glad someone else is high on Hutchinson — I am higher than everyone, so feel free to regard me as an outlier.
Patterson is probably worth more to others than us because we have an entire interior line established for the next 2-6 years. Keep in mind, this entire thread is through my eyes as a Chiefs fan, and I don’t like the Chiefs taking interior line until the third day.
Let me ask you this about Smith-Njigba: even if he’s as good as you say, do you not have hesitations regarding the fact that he’s a version of Toney/Moore, which we already have? The Chiefs need an X (assuming we don’t bring back Juju) and a Z (assuming we don’t bring back Hardman).
Re: Patterson. I don't think you can come out and say you'd spend a 6th on him when a 6th is completely unreasonable. If you don't want to spend a day 2 pick on him, say that but don't give the impression that's where you're grading him. We all know he won't be there in the 6th or anywhere near it. Maybe scout a different player like Spencer Anderson who might be there in the 6th and offer him up as a suggestion.
As for Smith-Njigba... I really don't think Reid cares about what we see as a "traditional" X, Z, slot, etc. He and Veach have repeatedly said that they look for speed, but most importantly guys that can play multiple spots. Does Smith-Njigba check those boxes? Oh, yeah, I think so. He isn't slow. He's not a 4.3 guy but he might be 4.40. He can line up anywhere and win matchups. This is where I think this focus that a number of fans have on a big-bodied WR that can win as a pure X are getting Reid entirely wrong. He's rarely had those guys. 6'0" 190 is probably an ideal Reid body type but most importantly the ability to line up at all 3 spots and play with speed and quickness. [Reply]