Chiefs Offseason Notes This mock assumes and predicts a Super Bowl victory! I'm giving OBJ 1 more year on the tag and then replacing him with our 1st next year to save $ against the cap. I'm extending Chris Jones and inviting JuJu to return at approx $15m per year, and making a big trade in the draft! I think McKinnon finds a better offer elsewhere, I'm also bringing back Thornhill and some other supporting cast players like Saunders and Allegretti. This one might require Mahomes to make a slight contract adjustment, plus EB gets a HC job and we receive a 3rd RD Comp Pick.
Key Signings, Tags, Extensions: OT Franchise Tag Orlando Brown Jr
QB Pat Mahomes Contract Adjustment
DT Chris Jones extension
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
OG Nick Allegretti
DT Khalen Saunders
FS Juan Thornhill
Key Releases: DE Frank Clark
OT Andrew Wylie
DE Carlos Dunlap
DT Derrick Nnadi
WR Mecole Hardman
WR MVS
RB Ronald Jones II
RB Jerrick McKinnon
***2023 Draft*** With this draft I'm looking to lean into our strengths and take this team over the top for the next several seasons! Primarily, I want to continue to lead the league in sacks and passing yards. Dream Big!
RD 1 - DT Bryan Breese, Clemson 6-5 310 lbs
So this mock draft is dependent upon the rare scenario in which Breese falls all the way to us at 32. "But he's a top 10 pick!" Probably! But several sites have him slipping recently, including ESPN and NFL.com who both have him going in the 2nd. Breese and Jones would be crazy disruptive, creating an Elite interior DL that puts fear in our opponents. Breese's explosiveness, speed, and high twitch motor really stand out on tape for a guy his size! He made Bruce Feldman's Freak's List - ranked #14. He wrote "The former five-star was a third-team All-ACC selection (15 tackles, three TFLs) despite being limited to four games due to a torn ACL in late September. Bresee benched 435 pounds, power-cleaned 330, and deadlifted 585. He has vertical-jumped 30 inches, but the most impressive number is him clocking in the high 4.7s in the 40." Check him out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cG-xYVkvtM
RD 2 - DE Zach Harrison, Ohio State, 6-6 285 lbs
Harrison has the size AND the speed, fasted projected 40 by a DE on NFLdraftbuzz.com, he just didn't have crazy production at the college level. Bottom of the 2nd is probably his floor, I've seen him at the bottom of the first pretty frequently. I'm hoping he's the new Karlaftis on the opposite side. Here's some notes I liked about him "Harrison offers an impressive blend of size, length, and explosiveness... He has ridiculous athletic skills runs 4.5 at 268lbs can overwhelm opponents and fly past bigger tackles in a blink of an eye...Looks the part. Possesses a long, athletic build with room for additional muscle mass. Flashes a burst off the snap, good enough to cross the face of collegiate tackles and put him in position to make big plays behind the line of scrimmage...Fast in a straight line. Excellent wide and bull rushes when he's first off the snap...Plays fast with good initial quickness and closing speed to create havoc in the backfield."
Ok...Ok...I already know half you guys hate this one, but I'm not worried about Hopkins age and he'd be far and away the best WR on this team! This is the kind of move that could really take us over the top IMO. His contract is reasonable for the next two years, he's still one of the best WRs in the league, and I'd bet he wants to win a Super Bowl! I can't justify giving up a 2nd and it seems like star players always go for less than you'd think, so if they'll accept a 3rd + 6th I'm willing to make that trade. In reality that 6th is probably a conditional 2024 pick, either way, back-to-back Super Bowl Wins!
RD 3 - RT Zion Nelson 6-5 315 lbs, 0-Sacks in 2022
Earlier in the season he was considered a late 1st rounder, but now I'm seeing him slip to as late as the 4th. "Nelson posses very quick feet and excellent speed. May run as quick a high 4.9s. Very technical pass blocker who has graded very well for the past two years. Rarely is beaten by speed rushers on the edge. Nice long arms - enables him to get into defenders and keep them at a distance. Gets out of stance super quick so you rarely see him beaten off the line. Awareness is above-average. Sells trap block and can turn to seal. Fluid getting to and adjusting at the second level. Really good lateral agility with nice change of direction skills as a pass protector. Has the feet to adjust when he anticipates what's coming. Effective trapping and bends at the knees with adequate core strength to absorb the bull rush. Can clear a path at the second level if he hits the target.Versatile - skills translate so will likely be equally accomplished as a right or left tackle in the NFL. Above-average football smarts and general intelligence. Solid character and work ethic. Has good footwork and technique. Balanced and agile pass protection set with excellent hand placement." ...Sounds like an Andy Reid lineman to me.
RD 4 - WR Andrei Iosivas, Princeton, 6-3 215lbs, 4.2 40, 943 yrds in 2022
Rated in the 90s for short, intermediate, and deep routes (97%) on NFLdraftbuzz.com. He's got the size, speed, and intangibles. The only knock I read on this guy is that he's hasn't run a full route tree in college. "Shows suddenness off the line of scrimmage and accelerates quickly, and his top-end speed is among the best in this draft. Shows good sense as a route runner and provides an enormous catch radius over the middle of the field. He has soft hands and uses his frame effectively to shield defenders, making him a major threat in the red zone. He made Bruce Feldman's Freak's List - ranked #15. He wrote "In track, he finished fourth in the country in the heptathlon and ran the fastest 60 in NCAA heptathlon history (6.71). Iosivas bench pressed 370 pounds this month and has vertical-jumped 39 inches. His 60-yard dash time would, by his own estimation, translate into a 4.2-something 40, but he points out that it was also out of the blocks and on a track, so maybe not. His position coach, Brian Flinn, predicts when Iosivas goes through the draft process and performs those tests he will “destroy them all." He has reliable hands and shows the willingness to make catches in traffic over the middle. A fluid mover capable of creating some separation over the middle of the field, Iosivas has the long arms and soft hands to provide a sizable catch radius. Iosivas plays with a smoothness and balance, and he shows a knack for setting up defensive backs. Strong runner with the ball with enough agility to make defenders miss in the open field. Has a tall frame and long arms, plus strong hands, giving him a huge catch radius." Hard for me to understand why he's not a 2nd or 3rd round guy, most have him going in the 4th or 5th.
"Diaby is a high-motor pass rusher who shows a good feel for countering, and Diaby has the functional strength to bounce off tackles and close on the quarterback with second effort. He made Bruce Feldman's Freak's List - ranked #85. He wrote, "The 6-5, 280-pound senior with the 8-1 wingspan can really move for a big man, topping out at 20.8 mph on the GPS. His vertical jump is in the mid-30s and he broad-jumps 9-11. His bench press also is up to 385 pounds." Plays with exceptional balance and body control, showing off a nasty spin move to counter his speed, with the natural instincts to know when to use it. Diaby explodes off the line with a quick first step, with agile feet to counter inside and closing burst to finish plays. Combines excellent power with initial quickness, but one of his best attributes are his violent hands, which he uses with impressive precision. His long limbs and strong core strength allow him to power through blockers, and he has the flexibility to loop inside and get home on twists." He's a little undersized for a DT, but versatile enough to rotate inside or out.
RD 5 - DE Thomas Incoom, Central Michigan, 6-4 265 lbs, 11.5 Sacks
He's got the size, 4.69 speed, and the production tied for 3rd in sacks, but I guess he's not getting any love at Central Michigan? I've seen him as an UDFA (No clue?) but he's get more recognition recently as high as the 4th. "Naturally explosive player with decent get-off speed. Balanced through contact and stout against double-teams. Tackles through the ball. Versatile and has the body type to play many roles. He’s best right now against the run, playing with a low pad level despite his relatively tall frame, and Incoom has the violent hands to win at the point of attack.He’s quick to react and locate the ball, and he shows enough speed to succeed in backside pursuit. Incoom plays with excellent balance and a strong, flexible core, rarely ending up on the ground. Possesses the length and power to ward off offensive tackles. A savvy, versatile and instinctive edge rusher who did a little bit of everything, he was especially effective getting to the quarterback."
He's a tall WR that's not afraid to go over the middle, put up 800+ yards for Chip Kelly this last season, he's just not the fastest guy on the field. "Has the strong hands any NFL wide receiver coach and quarterback would covet. Tracks the deep ball over either shoulder and brings in passes fluidly without breaking stride downfield. He’s a fluid athlete with excellent short-area quickness; Bobo should be able to create separation, and he has the straight-line speed to threaten down the seam." Maybe he will learn a thing or two from Kelce!?
RD 7 - OT Luke Haggard, Indiana, 6’7 305
Grabbing another OL here to play backup and replace Wylie. I've seen his name pop up a couple time here on CP and on a Chiefs Youtube channel, but he needs some work in the weight room apparently. "He’s a coordinated athlete who can win at the point of attack in the run game, and Haggard can also move to consistently land blocks at the second level. Carries his weight naturally, wide-framed with low body fat, along with long arms and large, powerful hands. Haggard moves naturally, with agile feet and the natural balance to mirror in pass protection. Consistently lands blocks at the second level, and he finishes strong. As a pass protector, he has violent, heavy hands. Along with a strong initial punch, he has the hand strength to grip and redirect pass rushers. In the run game, he explodes off the line of scrimmage and consistently gets out to the second level to do damage. Is effective when asked to pull, showing the agility, speed, and overall range to get out as a lead blocker, where he locates defenders and shows the ability to adjust and land blocks against linebackers. He’s especially light on his feet considering his size, a fluid mover who has natural balance as he kick-slides and sets. Haggard has the long arms to ward off pass rushers and send them flying past the pocket."
RD 7 - HB Hunter Luepke, North Dakota State, 6-0, 235 lbs, 13 TDS in 2022
This guy's my favorite late RD gem, currently. He's built like a Fullback, he runs downhill like Mike Alstott, especially good for short yardage which is an area our RB room is lacking, he blocks really well too, but man he is a really surprising pass catcher. Remember those wheel routes Kareem Hunt used to run? Yeah, this guys just as good at them and far less suspecting. Watch his tape and tell me Andy doesn't absolutely love this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fy5hTiEnZCU&t=80s
RD 7 - S Jason Taylor ll, OSU, 6-0, 208 lbs 4.5 Speed, 6 INTs & QB Rating of 54.7% when targeted 2022
Tied for 3rd with the most INTs in the nation, but projected to go undrafted? I don't understand how there are so many DBs available these days at 6 ft+ & 200+ lbs with sub 4.5 speed? Seems like those guys were all going in the 3rd a few years ago and now they're a dime a dozen. Kids a ballhawk! "Is an explosive mover with quickness and speed. He’s at his best attacking downhill, shooting gaps in run support, and disrupting the backfield. Has a solid frame with a strong lower body and much improved bulk. Fluid and rangy with the coordination and loose hips to quickly change directions. Has quick feet and excellent change-of-direction ability, capable of mirroring quickness underneath. Strong hands to make plays on the ball, effective blitzer who shows well-coached technique and awareness.Great on route recognition and has click-and-close ability. Taylor tracks the ball well and does a nice job of getting his head around in plenty of time to avoid flags."
QB: P. Mahomes II, C. Henne, S. Buechele,
RB: I. Pacheco, H. Luepke, C. Edwards Hilaire
FB: M. Burton
TE: T. Kelce, N. Gray, J. Fortson
WR: D. Hopkins, J. Smith-Schuster, K. Toney, S. Moore, J. Ross, A. Iosivas, J. Bobo
OT: O. Brown Jr, Z. Nelson, L. Haggard, L. Nang
IL: J. Thuney, C. Humphrey, T. Smith, N. Allegretti, D. Kinnard
ED: G. Karlaftis, Z. Harrison, M. Danna, T. Incoon, J. Kaindoh
DT: C. Jones, B. Breese, K. Saunders, Y. Diaby
LB: N. Bolton, W. Gay, L. Chenal,J. Cochrane
CB: T. McDuffie, J. Williams, L. Sneed, J. Watson
DB: J. Reid, B. Cook, J. Thornhill, J. Taylor
Favorite Sources:
1) NFLdraftbuzz.com & ESPN.com/NFL/draft/bestavailable, I really love their scoring systems and positional lists
2) Thedraftnetwork.com, SI.com, and especially NFLmockdraftdatabase.com for their player projections per round
3) Bruce Feldman's annual Freaks List and Youtube for player analysis
4) PFN.com, PFF.com, Fanspeak.com for Mock NFL Draft Simulators [Reply]
Overall, I would be a bit concerned with this draft, if I'm being honest about it. That said there are some spots I think you'd have some incredible wins. My comments below.
RD 1 - DT Bryan Breese, Clemson 6-5 310 lbs
I see Breese slipping too, but not to 31. He's still a good player when he's been on the field. I think he goes somewhere in the early 20's. I think the top-10 talk is overstating his ability and his value. I would not be disappointed if he ended up there to us but I'd call it wishful thinking.
RD 2 - DE Zach Harrison, Ohio State, 6-6 285 lbs
Harrison has been a classic underachiever and a large part of that is that he's an extremely linear athlete despite some eye-popping "traits." His lateral agility and bend leave something to be desired. When he wins, it's largely with power and hand usage. He's a guy that I think can be a nice piece for an NFL team, even a starting SDE. What he is not is the bendy, twitchy, WDE that the Chiefs need opposite Karlaftis. He's a guy that if he fell to the 3rd, I'd strongly consider him as a rotational piece. I just don't think he falls that far, and I think the team that gets him early might be a bit disappointed.
You already know how I feel about this. I think Hopkins is starting that decline versus his salary. I would not do this.
RD 3 - RT Zion Nelson 6-5 315 lbs, 0-Sacks in 2022
I really like Zion as a developmental LT. He's the type of guy I'd absolutely target at this point if the Chiefs simply tag OBj again. That said, I worry about projections to RT from LT without seeing how that player performs in that transition. Case-in-point for this year for me has been Jaelyn Duncan. He played LT his entire career and they tried to work him in at RT at the Senior Bowl to somewhat disastrous results. I think back to Eric Fisher when he was drafted too and that worked out terribly. So, until I can see it, I can't get on board with it. Now, put Wanya Morris here and I'm 100% on board.
Here's what I can say for sure, Iosivas doens't run a 4.2 in pads. In fact, I'd put him in the 4.45 to 4.50 range. He simply does not display track speed. Corners hung with him easily in the Ivy League. Call me not as impressed as some. I'm not against drafting him, especially here, I'd just temper my expectations that he's going to be an NFL deep threat. I don't think he is.
I really like Diaby the same way I like Zach Harrison. My concern with Diaby is that so many of his wins in the pass rush department came from the interior. I think he's a nice day 3 rotational player, but I would probably have him in the 5th.
RD 5 - DE Thomas Incoom, Central Michigan, 6-4 265 lbs, 11.5 Sacks
I said in my opinion of him elsewhere that I felt like I was watching Matt Judon all over again when Judon came out and I still feel that way. I think Incoom is going to be one of those guys who far exceeds his draft stock. He's got some bend, he's got some speed, he makes a lot of plays, and he did pretty well for himself during the Senior Bowl week. I'm not sure where he'll end up but I'd be most comfortable in the 4th round, maybe even the end of the 3rd.
I can't be disappointed with a WR like Bobo this late but he's a convincingly difficult evaluation. UCLA used him like a split tight end a lot and that's what makes it so tough. If he were a little heavier, I'd lobby for his conversion to TE. He's definitely not quick or fast and he runs like a 4.70 tight end. He finds holes in zones and makes some tough grabs over the middle. He's just not a guy like a Mike Williams to me, where he has enough athleticism to be an NFL WR. I just don't think he's that guy. I'd still consider him a TE conversion project in the mold of Jody Fortson.
RD 7 - OT Luke Haggard, Indiana, 6’7 305
You know my love for Haggard so I can't fathom him dropping to the 7th round. After much thought, I'd say 5th round is likely where his floor is. He's at least a Josh Ball type as a potential reserve tackle in the NFL and he went in the 4th round with a pretty shady history.
RD 7 - HB Hunter Luepke, North Dakota State, 6-0, 235 lbs, 13 TDS in 2022
This draft is loaded with talent at RB so I have a bit of a difficult time championing a /FB type of pick. I see more value with a player like him than with any FB Reid has employed of late though, so you have that going for you. As a 7th rounder, I wouldn't complain in real time.
RD 7 - S Jason Taylor ll, OSU, 6-0, 208 lbs 4.5 Speed, 6 INTs & QB Rating of 54.7% when targeted 2022
The knocks on Taylor are legit, missed tackles and being a grabby defender, so despite showing some other really good traits he's going to naturally slide down draft boards. He has quickness, speed, size, and ball skills. Someone will take the chance to coach him up on the other stuff. I'd venture the 6th round seems like a logical spot for him to go. [Reply]
Awesome! Thanks for the feedback! ...Mock draft season is my favorite time of year.
I agree that Breese would likely require a trade up in the first, originally I had us giving up a pick to get him but recent pro mocks had me feeling like we might have a chance at 32. Karlaftis fell to us.
Harrison I could see not working out, kind of a Kaindoh pick, phycially gifted but just not a productive DE, but the rest of that line's talent would hopefully dampen any major deficiencies and we could rotate in Danna, Incoom, and Diaby as well. He only needs to reproduce Clark's regular season production, at like $20m less, to be effective. If he's not the guy, we take another swing next year.
Zion played some RT this last season, apparently, but I have no clue how he will translate there just that his profile sounds like the kind of OL Andy really loves.
At WR I think Hopkins gives you everything that MVS and Hardman did, accept Hardman's jet sweeps which we'd happily give to Toney. If Iosovos can find a way to contribute in a similar fashion to Hardman or MVS, hopefully behind an emerging Sky Moore & Justyn Ross, that'd be about all we'd really need. Maybe he can handle return duties for us to keep Toney healthy as our dynamic #3 in his rookie year and grow into one of those roles in the future.
Hard for me to choose where Diaby and Incoom would go, could easily swap them here. Along with Harrison, I'm hoping these two could be coached up into a nice DL rotation.
Bobo could make for an interesting red zone target, like you said he's sort of a TE/WR tweaner which brings something different to our WR room.
I love Hunter Luepke's tape! Andy would find a bunch of fun ways to get this guy the rock in the redzone! [Reply]
First of all, terrific offseason blue print. I like what you did in the trenches specifically.
The only nitpick I would have is that you allocated a lot of resources to marginally improve the WR room. Post-PED Hopkins is an improvement over MVS in the short run but resource intensive over the long term, especially if he wants a fresh deal. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Nightfyre:
First of all, terrific offseason blue print. I like what you did in the trenches specifically.
The only nitpick I would have is that you allocated a lot of resources to marginally improve the WR room. Post-PED Hopkins is an improvement over MVS in the short run but resource intensive over the long term, especially if he wants a fresh deal.
Thanks man! Much appreciated! It's all in fun but here I'm imagining that I can bring him in to play-out the rest of his current contract setting him up for one last decent sized deal after 2 years with Mahomes and 1 or 2 SB rings. I'm offering JuJu a 3 year deal. In the meantime, I would continue to stock pile rookie WR contracts and have those guys compete to fill the other WR roles bc I just don't think that Hardman or MVS really bring anything special. With Hopkins in-house you'd be expecting a min 1k yards from him, something close to 1k yards from JuJu, so having several guys on rookie deals that are capable in their own right would be a luxury. Toney is a talent, and really makes this WR pop imo, he could be next in line to step up in a couple years when Hopkins' contract is up. I'm also still hoping that Justyn Ross can get healthy and is a darkhorse to flash in this offense! [Reply]
Originally Posted by Couch-Potato:
Awesome! Thanks for the feedback! ...Mock draft season is my favorite time of year.
I agree that Breese would likely require a trade up in the first, originally I had us giving up a pick to get him but recent pro mocks had me feeling like we might have a chance at 32. Karlaftis fell to us.
Harrison I could see not working out, kind of a Kaindoh pick, phycially gifted but just not a productive DE, but the rest of that line's talent would hopefully dampen any major deficiencies and we could rotate in Danna, Incoom, and Diaby as well. If he's not the guy, we take another swing next year.
Zion played some RT this last season, apparently, but I have no clue how he will translate there just that his profile sounds like the kind of OL Andy really loves.
At WR I think Hopkins gives you everything that MVS and Hardman did, accept Hardman's jet sweeps which we'd happily give to Toney. If Iosovos can find a way to contribute in a similar fashion to Hardman or MVS, hopefully behind an emerging Sky Moore & Justyn Ross, that'd be about all we'd really need. Maybe he can handle return duties for us to keep Toney healthy as our dynamic #3 in his rookie year and grow into one of those roles in the future.
Hard for me to choose where Diaby and Incoom would go, could easily swap them here. Along with Harrison, I'm hoping these two could be coached up into a nice DL rotation.
I love Hunter Luepke's tape! Andy would find a bunch of fun ways to get this guy in the endzone!
To me Hopkins would be more of a JuJu type to placement. I would keep MVS and let JuJu walk if we traded for Hopkins [Reply]
Originally Posted by Palangi:
To me Hopkins would be more of a JuJu type to placement. I would keep MVS and let JuJu walk if we traded for Hopkins
I'd prefer Hopkins over JuJu as well, especially in a vacuum scenario where he doesn't cost you a draft pick(s). I see him as a significant talent upgrade over our current WRs, but man they'd be great together IMO! My ONLY concern with Hopkins is that I saw him jawing with Kyler Murray on the sideline, does he want to win? or does he want to be the man? If he can comfortably accept fitting into a prominent, yet lesser role than he's used to in order to win than I'd invite him with open arms.
Kelce - Goat TE
Hopkins - Star Deep Threat
JuJu - Big Stalwart Slot
Toney - X-Factor Gadget
+
Moore - Expected to grow into a reliable slot
Ross - Has the talent to be a star outside
Iosivas - All-around WR talent with deep threat potential
Bobo - Tall red-zone target
+
Mix in a couple more rookies to compete over the next couple years. [Reply]
I like it but will echo the concerns at WR. Subtracting Hardman AND Valdes-Scantling removes an awful lot of speed from the equation, and I don't think KC wants that.
Smith-Schuster and Hopkins are duplicative.
I also don't believe Hopkins will play out on his last two years of the current deal. You're signing him to a new, huge deal if you add him. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
I like it but will echo the concerns at WR. Subtracting Hardman AND Valdes-Scantling removes an awful lot of speed from the equation, and I don't think KC wants that.
Smith-Schuster and Hopkins are duplicative.
I also don't believe Hopkins will play out on his last two years of the current deal. You're signing him to a new, huge deal if you add him.
I don't like removing MVS and Hardman for Hopkins at all.
You've got all these guys now in their second year with Mahomes in this offense and you want to start over?
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
I don't like removing MVS and Hardman for Hopkins at all.
You've got all these guys now in their second year with Mahomes in this offense and you want to start over?
I'd rather not.
That thinking might apply to MVS and Mecole, who are lesser WRs, but Hopkins is a star. How difficult can it be for him to learn the offense, pair a star WR with the Goat QB and let them do their thing! See JuJu as an example. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Couch-Potato:
That thinking might apply to MVS and Mecole, who are lesser WRs, but Hopkins is a star. How difficult can it be for him to learn the offense, pair a star WR with the Goat QB and let them do their thing! See JuJu as an example.
Not at what it's going to cost.
We'll be right back where we were in 2021, when all we had was Hill at WR. Three GOOD players are better than one GREAT player at any position except QB, in my opinion.
Can't see any way they cut MVS, especially after last week. Let's see what he does in the SB. The cap implications must be minor if people are actually suggesting it? [Reply]