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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Baker's Dozen of Draft Donuts
kccrow 11:18 PM 03-27-2014
This started out as a bulleted list of things I think about in addressing the draft. I ended up with 13 bullets that reminded me of donuts. Maybe I've had a few too many brews... Feel free to argue with them or add to them.

Rule 1: If you need a starting QB, draft him in round 1.
Don't expect to get one anywhere else. If a QB doesn't have a first round grade, then he isn't likely going to become a starter. The odds go from bad to almost impossible once you get outside the top half of round 2. If you get one outside of round 1, consider yourself extremely fortunate, nearly to the point of you've won the lotto lucky.

Rule 2: Don't draft a backup QB in any round higher than round 4.
Why waste a premium pick on a backup at any position unless he's going to take over for an incumbent starter within two years? With that said, spending a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a QB seldom results in a starting caliber QB. Don't waste the pick.

Rule 3: Never draft an OL in the top 15 picks.
If you're drafting in the top 15, you need skill players that can make an impact for your football team. Get those guys and a serviceable offensive line. The Pittsburgh Steelers are time-tested proof that you don't have to go get lineman really early. Its a myth in the NFL that you need an All-Pro left tackle. It is nice, but far from necessary. Don't go chasing fool's gold. The best teams normally have average tackles, and you can get those types in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Guards can be had in every draft in the 3rd through 5th rounds. Unless he's a plug-and-play immediate starter, don't go chasing after guards early either. I played a long time as a lineman, and I struggle with this one.

Rule 4: Never draft a RB in the first 2 rounds.
There are always a plethora of serviceable backs available in the 3rd round or later of every draft. Additionally, backs have a short shelf life. Don't spend premium picks on a position you have to fill regularly and don't need a super star at to win games in the NFL. Remember, the NFL is a passing league, and passing effectively is the most critical statistic in correlation with win percentage.

Rule 5: Always draft production over potential in Round 1.
The NFL is a win now league, not a wait and see league. The guys that produce generally continue to produce. While you can catch lightning in a bottle, the sure thing is always the best thing. It is critical that round 1 yields a starter, don't waste the pick. Take your chances later. Watch tape, not stop watches.

Rule 6: Don't draft special teams players in the first 3 rounds.
Most of the time, you have 7 picks so why waste the ones you want to try and get starters out of on special teamers? You can fill your roster and get great kickers in round 4-7. Teams that forget this fact hurt their team's growth more often than not.

Rule 7: Draft for Scheme, not for Skills.
You're running a football team that must gel as a single unit. Draft players that fit what you're trying to do as a football team. If you draft players that don't fit because of measurable attributes and then try to adapt to them, you're going to fail.

Rule 8: Always draft to throw the ball or stop the pass first.
If you're a bad team, chances are you can't do either of these effectively. The only way to improve is to do this. Don't adhere to the philosophy that you need to run the ball and stop the run, it's been proven to be false in the NFL for over 25 years. That means you need a QB, WRs, and Pass Rushers before all else.

Rule 9: Draft WRs that run good routes and catch with their hands.
It doesn't really matter how fast they run (to an extent), how high they jump, nor any other metric, what matters most is that they can create separation and catch the ball. Drafting based primarily on speed more often hurts than helps. If in doubt, drafting for size is better.

Rule 10: Draft BPA at a Position of Need.
Never adhere to the philosophy that you draft the best player available, because that simply is not and should not be the case. If you do not have an immediate or near future need for a position, you shouldn't make a pick that won't improve your football team. If you're confident, a trade down attempt should be made. If that fails, improve your team. Remember though, look about 2 years into the future when projecting need. Remember, a player is only a reach in the eyes of pundits. If you need him, he's up on your board, and he fits your scheme, draft him.

Rule 11: Draft DL and OL that get off the snap quickly.
Nothing is more important than how quickly a player can release off the snap of the ball, and these two areas are most critical. To win at the point, you have to be the first to the point. Dumb it way down and think about who wins an arm wrestling match. Gaining initial leverage is everything.

Rule 12: Never draft a LB that can't cover.
No matter the scheme, you give away your defensive tendencies easily by not having LBs that can cover. If you run a 4-3 and you have a thumper at ILB, I'm going to execute the middle zone with crosses and inside hitches all day long. If you have a 3-4 and you rush an OLB most of the time because he is a liability in coverage, I'm going to swing to that flat more often. When you overcompensate to take those things away with other players, it leaves their responsibilities open and I adjust. LBs are undervalued, because they can dictate much of what the defense is able to do.

Rule 13: Draft physical, confident players.
All the athleticism or size in the world matters little if that player's demeanor is wrong. You have to draft physical, confident football players. Physical players show up on tape. If a corner won't stick his nose into a pile and try to take down a running back, don't draft him. I could go on, just make sure the player wants it.
[Reply]
O.city 12:32 PM 03-28-2014
Rephrased, I don't think it's very high on te list for the most part nor is it necessarily predictive of success at the next level
[Reply]
BlackHelicopters 12:36 PM 03-28-2014
Play good football
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Halfcan 01:06 PM 03-28-2014
KCCROW- early frontrunner for Noob of the year!
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htismaqe 01:10 PM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by Halfcan:
KCCROW- early frontrunner for Noob of the year!
ABSOLUTELY.
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Saccopoo 08:42 PM 03-28-2014
Offensive tackle is a skill position.

Second most important position on a football team.

I'd consider that a viable top 15 level pick.
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BryanBusby 08:54 PM 03-28-2014
You're fucking high if you think OT is a skill position
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kccrow 09:11 PM 03-28-2014
I'm liking the comments so far and don't take offense to any of them. Keep them coming.

On the left tackle issue... I said see Pittsburgh because they are a team that has won despite rarely ever taking an OT in round 1, more or less in the top 15. They have picked on offensive tackle in the top 15 of the draft a whopping 2 times since the 1966 merger and an OG 1 time. When they draft lineman in round 1, they are usually interior lineman.

OL Picks in the top 15 - Pittsburgh Steelers since inception
1955 - Frank Verrichione - OT (#6)
1968 - Mike Taylor - OT (#10)
1986 - John Rienstra - OG (#9)
1992 - Leon Searcy - OT (#11)

Now granted, they didn't draft a lot in the top 15... which means they won a lot of games.

What did the draft most often? A quick glance looks like DE, LB, WR, DB, OG. Pass rush, pass receive, pass defend, stop the interior rush from getting to your QB. Sounds like a stellar formula for success if you were to ask me.
[Reply]
kccrow 09:12 PM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by Halfcan:
KCCROW- early frontrunner for Noob of the year!
I have no idea what this is, but I like shiny objects!
[Reply]
Saccopoo 09:18 PM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by BryanBusby:
You're ****ing high if you think OT is a skill position
You are fucking high and stupid if you don't.

You do know what an offensive tackle does, what he defends against, and the skill set he needs to possess to effectively play at the NFL level right?

Tell me, other than the QB, what position requires/needs more from to be effective than the offensive tackle?
[Reply]
Saccopoo 09:19 PM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I'm liking the comments so far and don't take offense to any of them. Keep them coming.

On the left tackle issue... I said see Pittsburgh because they are a team that has won despite rarely ever taking an OT in round 1, more or less in the top 15. They have picked on offensive tackle in the top 15 of the draft a whopping 2 times since the 1966 merger and an OG 1 time. When they draft lineman in round 1, they are usually interior lineman.

OL Picks in the top 15 - Pittsburgh Steelers since inception
1955 - Frank Verrichione - OT (#6)
1968 - Mike Taylor - OT (#10)
1986 - John Rienstra - OG (#9)
1992 - Leon Searcy - OT (#11)

Now granted, they didn't draft a lot in the top 15... which means they won a lot of games.

What did the draft most often? A quick glance looks like DE, LB, WR, DB, OG. Pass rush, pass receive, pass defend, stop the interior rush from getting to your QB. Sounds like a stellar formula for success if you were to ask me.
One team?

That's what you are going off of?

Really?
[Reply]
kccrow 09:33 PM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by Saccopoo:
One team?

That's what you are going off of?

Really?
How about the Packers?
1989 - Tony Mandarich - OT (#2)
1985 - Ken Ruiettgers - OT (#7)
1967 - Bob Hyland - OG (#9)
1966 - Gale Gillingham - OG (#13)
1954 - Art Hunter - OT (#3)
1951 - Bob Gain - OT (#5)


Patriots?

1992 - Eugene Chung - OT (#13)
1991 - Pat Harlow - OT (#11)
1976 - Pete Brock - OC (#12)
1973 - John Hannah - OG (#4)


The Broncos drafted Clady at #12 in 2008, but before that hadn't drafted an OL in the top 15 since Chris Hinton at Guard in 1983.

The good teams in the last 20 years haven't really needed to draft outstanding tackles.

How many Super Bowl winning teams in the last 25 years can you recall having a great tackle, drafted in the top 15? I don't recall many. I'm going to go off and look that up just for shits and giggles.
[Reply]
Saccopoo 09:40 PM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by kccrow:
How many Super Bowl winning teams in the last 25 years can you recall having a great tackle, drafted in the top 15? I don't recall many. I'm going to go off and look that up just for shits and giggles.

[Reply]
kccrow 09:42 PM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by Saccopoo:
That was the easy one. Go back farther, tell me what you find. I'm not sure, but it might be Pace? I'm curious to know how many haha.
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Saccopoo 09:44 PM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Rule 1: If you need a starting QB, draft him in round 1.

[Reply]
Saccopoo 09:46 PM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Rule 2: Don't draft a backup QB in any round higher than round 4.

[Reply]
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