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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Baker's Dozen of Draft Donuts
kccrow 11:18 PM 03-27-2014
This started out as a bulleted list of things I think about in addressing the draft. I ended up with 13 bullets that reminded me of donuts. Maybe I've had a few too many brews... Feel free to argue with them or add to them.

Rule 1: If you need a starting QB, draft him in round 1.
Don't expect to get one anywhere else. If a QB doesn't have a first round grade, then he isn't likely going to become a starter. The odds go from bad to almost impossible once you get outside the top half of round 2. If you get one outside of round 1, consider yourself extremely fortunate, nearly to the point of you've won the lotto lucky.

Rule 2: Don't draft a backup QB in any round higher than round 4.
Why waste a premium pick on a backup at any position unless he's going to take over for an incumbent starter within two years? With that said, spending a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a QB seldom results in a starting caliber QB. Don't waste the pick.

Rule 3: Never draft an OL in the top 15 picks.
If you're drafting in the top 15, you need skill players that can make an impact for your football team. Get those guys and a serviceable offensive line. The Pittsburgh Steelers are time-tested proof that you don't have to go get lineman really early. Its a myth in the NFL that you need an All-Pro left tackle. It is nice, but far from necessary. Don't go chasing fool's gold. The best teams normally have average tackles, and you can get those types in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Guards can be had in every draft in the 3rd through 5th rounds. Unless he's a plug-and-play immediate starter, don't go chasing after guards early either. I played a long time as a lineman, and I struggle with this one.

Rule 4: Never draft a RB in the first 2 rounds.
There are always a plethora of serviceable backs available in the 3rd round or later of every draft. Additionally, backs have a short shelf life. Don't spend premium picks on a position you have to fill regularly and don't need a super star at to win games in the NFL. Remember, the NFL is a passing league, and passing effectively is the most critical statistic in correlation with win percentage.

Rule 5: Always draft production over potential in Round 1.
The NFL is a win now league, not a wait and see league. The guys that produce generally continue to produce. While you can catch lightning in a bottle, the sure thing is always the best thing. It is critical that round 1 yields a starter, don't waste the pick. Take your chances later. Watch tape, not stop watches.

Rule 6: Don't draft special teams players in the first 3 rounds.
Most of the time, you have 7 picks so why waste the ones you want to try and get starters out of on special teamers? You can fill your roster and get great kickers in round 4-7. Teams that forget this fact hurt their team's growth more often than not.

Rule 7: Draft for Scheme, not for Skills.
You're running a football team that must gel as a single unit. Draft players that fit what you're trying to do as a football team. If you draft players that don't fit because of measurable attributes and then try to adapt to them, you're going to fail.

Rule 8: Always draft to throw the ball or stop the pass first.
If you're a bad team, chances are you can't do either of these effectively. The only way to improve is to do this. Don't adhere to the philosophy that you need to run the ball and stop the run, it's been proven to be false in the NFL for over 25 years. That means you need a QB, WRs, and Pass Rushers before all else.

Rule 9: Draft WRs that run good routes and catch with their hands.
It doesn't really matter how fast they run (to an extent), how high they jump, nor any other metric, what matters most is that they can create separation and catch the ball. Drafting based primarily on speed more often hurts than helps. If in doubt, drafting for size is better.

Rule 10: Draft BPA at a Position of Need.
Never adhere to the philosophy that you draft the best player available, because that simply is not and should not be the case. If you do not have an immediate or near future need for a position, you shouldn't make a pick that won't improve your football team. If you're confident, a trade down attempt should be made. If that fails, improve your team. Remember though, look about 2 years into the future when projecting need. Remember, a player is only a reach in the eyes of pundits. If you need him, he's up on your board, and he fits your scheme, draft him.

Rule 11: Draft DL and OL that get off the snap quickly.
Nothing is more important than how quickly a player can release off the snap of the ball, and these two areas are most critical. To win at the point, you have to be the first to the point. Dumb it way down and think about who wins an arm wrestling match. Gaining initial leverage is everything.

Rule 12: Never draft a LB that can't cover.
No matter the scheme, you give away your defensive tendencies easily by not having LBs that can cover. If you run a 4-3 and you have a thumper at ILB, I'm going to execute the middle zone with crosses and inside hitches all day long. If you have a 3-4 and you rush an OLB most of the time because he is a liability in coverage, I'm going to swing to that flat more often. When you overcompensate to take those things away with other players, it leaves their responsibilities open and I adjust. LBs are undervalued, because they can dictate much of what the defense is able to do.

Rule 13: Draft physical, confident players.
All the athleticism or size in the world matters little if that player's demeanor is wrong. You have to draft physical, confident football players. Physical players show up on tape. If a corner won't stick his nose into a pile and try to take down a running back, don't draft him. I could go on, just make sure the player wants it.
[Reply]
Dante84 11:58 PM 03-27-2014
Dontari Poe laughs at Rule 5
[Reply]
OldSchool 03:57 AM 03-28-2014
Scheme and not for skill? That's how you get Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey.:-)

Always take BPA in the 1st at either Pass Rusher, DB, or WR.

For instance, I would take Aaron Donald in a heartbeat because I know that there will be hell to pay for the opposing team if they leave him 1 on 1 next to Poe in the middle of the line in our sub packages.

He's not your prototypical 5-tech be any means, but his arm length is good for his height and he uses whatever length he does have pretty well. Couple that with the fact that he has the quickness of a pass rushing OLB and the power of a gap penetrating DT. That's well worth a 1st round pick.

As for WRs who can catch, I would agree but also add a couple of more things. Wrs who aren't afraid to catch through contact, fully extend for passes in traffic whether it be verticle or horizontal, and also WRs who at least flash the understanding and ability to get open late in their route as opposed to just always trying to win at the very beginning. Of course, if you can find a speed demon who always outruns coverage regardless of who is on him and has the hands, fearlessness, body control, and ball skills to go with it then by all means take him.
[Reply]
OldSchool 04:09 AM 03-28-2014
Also, BPA at position of need shouldn't be a rule. Always go with the BPA regardless of need if he is a significantly better football player than your BPA at position of need.

Say you need a starting FS, the only one available to you is rated 35 on your board but there is a Pass Rusher available at your pick that you have rated in the 20s or up to 30, you take the pass rusher vs reaching on the FS even if your pass rush is already set with 2 good starters.

In this draft, that would be like having Jimmie Ward available as the top remaining FS and Kony Ealy is there at 23. You take Ealy without batting an eye.
[Reply]
htismaqe 08:35 AM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by Dante84:
Dontari Poe laughs at Rule 5
Dontari Poe is the exception, not the rule.
[Reply]
htismaqe 08:36 AM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by OldSchool:
Also, BPA at position of need shouldn't be a rule. Always go with the BPA regardless of need if he is a significantly better football player than your BPA at position of need.

Say you need a starting FS, the only one available to you is rated 35 on your board but there is a Pass Rusher available at your pick that you have rated in the 20s or up to 30, you take the pass rusher vs reaching on the FS even if your pass rush is already set with 2 good starters.

In this draft, that would be like having Jimmie Ward available as the top remaining FS and Kony Ealy is there at 23. You take Ealy without batting an eye.
Pass rusher is a position of need.
[Reply]
O.city 08:41 AM 03-28-2014
I don't think you draft for your scheme. Draft talent, and fit your scheme around it.
[Reply]
htismaqe 08:55 AM 03-28-2014
You guys need to stop nitpicking on ONE of his rules and acknowledge the fact that he fucking NAILED the other 12.

:-)
[Reply]
Dave Lane 08:55 AM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by O.city:
I don't think you draft for your scheme. Draft talent, and fit your scheme around it.
What about when you have 5 players with the same grade at your pick and you can't trade down?
[Reply]
O.city 09:22 AM 03-28-2014
Take one of them?
[Reply]
The Franchise 09:27 AM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by Dave Lane:
What about when you have 5 players with the same grade at your pick and you can't trade down?
All different positions? You look at where you could possibly have a need in 1-2 years.
[Reply]
Dunerdr 10:58 AM 03-28-2014
Production over potential? I'd rather sit a guy a year and he become an all pro rather than start him him always me mike Sanchez.

1. See Aaron Rodgers v. Alex smith college production.
2. See same pro stats.
3. I'll go potential. Fuck you.
[Reply]
htismaqe 11:08 AM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by Dunerdr:
Production over potential? I'd rather sit a guy a year and he become an all pro rather than start him him always me mike Sanchez.

1. See Aaron Rodgers v. Alex smith college production.
2. See same pro stats.
3. I'll go potential. Fuck you.
Aaron Rodgers was pretty productive at Cal. Alex Smith, while productive, played at pre-Pac 12 Utah.

There's more to production than just stats, there's also level of competition, etc.
[Reply]
O.city 11:10 AM 03-28-2014
College stats are useless in player judgement
[Reply]
htismaqe 12:06 PM 03-28-2014
Originally Posted by O.city:
College stats are useless in player judgement
lolwut?
[Reply]
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