2022 is going to be a massive challenge.

I think it goes without saying that this coming offseason may be the most difficult offseason of the Veach era for the Chiefs.

According to Veach himself, the team will be starting the offseason with negative cap space and will have the fewest number of players under contract in the NFL.

Here's the roster set up for next season so far (I'm including Brown, as Veach said he was either going to be tagged or extended):

QB: Mahomes
RB: Edwards-Helaire
FB:

WR: Hill, Hardman
TE: Kelce, Gray

LT: Brown
LG: Thuney, Allegretti
C: Humphrey, Allegretti
RG: Smith
RT: Niang

DE: Clark, Kaindoh, Herring
DT: Saunders
DT: Wharton
DE: Jones, Danna

OLB: Gay
ILB: Hitchens
OLB: Bolton

CB: Sneed, Fenton
S: Thornhill

K: Butker
P: Townsend
LS:

Positions that are fine.

QB: Mahomes is our golden ticket, and so long as we have Andy Reid, we have a pipeline to reliable vets in the Moore/Henne mold who can hold the clipboard and play Week 18 while Mahomes rests.

LB: The Chiefs invested two 2nd round picks, so their core of Gay and Bolton get the nod this coming year, and the team may even find a way to retain Hitchens (reducing his salary for a guaranteed roster spot is a near-guarantee.) DOD and Niemann are UFAs, but the Chiefs will probably bring back both for pennies.

Positions with challenges that can be managed.

RB: CEH could be in line for a good year this year, and the Chiefs can probably bring back Darrel at low cost if need be, and they can find Jerrod McKinnons every season.

OL: The entire starting 5 is returning, but the depth will need to be revamped. Wylie, Remmers, Blythe, and LDT are all UFAs. Most can probably be brought back for pennies.

CB: It's unclear if the team can manage to retain Charvarious Ward, who is a UFA. It's also unclear how Baker and Hughes will perform this year -- although, ostensibly, one of them will be fine enough to play as a #2 in 2022. A draft pick or two and a street signing will help body out the roster here, since apparently Spags doesn't need premium investments to make the secondary work.

Positions that are going to be difficult to manage.

WR: Hill is entering into a contract year, and can save the Chiefs a ton of money against the cap by working a new deal. Aside from that, Hardman is probably what he's always been, so the Chiefs still need a true #2, which will remain a vital need. Robinson, Pringle, and Fountain are all UFAs according to OvertheCap, but the Chiefs can probably bring any of them all back for pennies.

DE: This is going to be a challenging position, unless Danna breaks out this year or Kaindoh elevates his game. Frank Clark is probably going to get cut, and Chris Jones is apparently amazing no matter where we put him? But aside from Jones, the Chiefs need a ton more talent at this position. I think we'll all be looking back at cutting Tim Ward as a regrettable error a year from now.

Very difficult positions to manage.

S: If we assume, as I think we should, that Mathieu is on his way out, then what's the answer at this position? Sorensen is a UFA but can be brought back, and Thornhill remains a vexing player right now. Mathieu also allows Spags to get by with cheap investments at DB, since he's a coach on the field. The team may not have the cap room to make a splash here, either. At this point, I think safety is the most likely position for the Chiefs to select in the 1st round, but they need depth as well as top-end talent. With the coming cap crunch, Veach is really going to have to massage the numbers to prevent a huge falloff here.
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They have something like 26 pending UFAs next season.

So roughly half the roster will be UFA's going into 2022. Most of those guys are ancillary players, but you still have to have someone on the roster.

Apart from guys like Mathieu, Brown, Ward and Reed, you have dudes who are valuable contributors like Nnadi, Remmers, potentially Hughes, Sorensen, Robinson, Winchester, Okafor, Williams and Henne, then decent back of the roster options like Pringle, Blythe, LDT and Niemann.

They only have 26 guys under contract for next season before consider probable cap cuts in Hitchens and Clark. And they only have about $35 million in projected cap for next season. Figure a post June 1 cut of those two frees up another $28 million or so and you're looking at $63 million to get 30 new guys on the roster. If you end up tagging Brown or Mathieu, you're looking at conservatively another $18 million off to get you to about $45 million in available space for 28, 29 guys.

So I guess you hope that Powell works himself onto the roster and Buechele becomes a viable backup. Devon Key replaces Watts, Prince and Darryl Williams can hopefully supplant Remmers and Blythe. Demone Harris replaces Okafor, Derrick Gore replaces the other Darrel Williams. Can Zayne Anderson replace Dan Sorensen as Reid's vital undrafted white BYU safety? Cobb or Rozeboom replace DoD as a STs linebacker?

I mean they're gonna need more cheap talent than a set of draft picks can plow into the system. As Stars/Scrubs as this season roster can appear, next years will be even more stark.

Man I hope they are right about Tim Ward and he's not gonna be a piece we regret losing. Sure seems like he'd have been a handy guy to have around next season.
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
Considering KC has $45M in roster bonuses (Mahomes and Jones) it can restructure, and that a Hill extension is priority and likely reduces his 2022 cap number, I think the cap crunch is less terrifying than you guys are initially reading.

It is hard to see KC finding the cap $$ to keep both Orlando Brown and Tyrann Mathieu and do something more than fill the rest of the roster with scrubs, so I think this is it for the Honey Badger.

I think you're probably right at least as it relates to Jones. But man, at some point you gotta pay the piper on Mahomes. Every dollar you defer is just another one you've gotta find the following season.

And Jones, if he has the kind of year he's capable of at DE, is gonna find himself in a whole new salary bracket as a dominant DE. They can surely get that $29 million figure down with an extension, but he'll be 28 at that point and is gonna want to be compensated as a premier DE in exchange. He's gonna look at that deal Myles Garrett signed through his age 31 season at $25 million/season and think that another couple of years added onto his deal at $25 million/per seems pretty fair...

As for Hill, I think we'd be lucky to see that cap hit fall to any lower than about $14 million. Cooper's year 1 hit was $12.5 million and he doesn't have the potential or production of Hill. Hill's cap hit next year is only about $16 million next year as it stands. Sure, Veach could bonus him out, but again, you can only kick so many cans down the road before they bite you.

Anybody paying attention knew that Veach's job would get incrementally harder every year and that a soft-reboot would probably be inevitable at some point. I'm guessing they'll keep trying to maximize Kelce's remaining premier seasons as those will probably coincide pretty closely with Jones and Hill. But every step they take in doing so is going to make the crash that comes in 2024 or so that much more jarring.

And if this OL comes together nicely and we're looking at the 2025 season with a nuked salary cap and a bunch of FA o-lineman hitting the market at about the same time...well wouldn't it be a bitch and a half to lose a bunch of talented young OL because we held on a year too long or gripped the reins just a little too tight over the previous season or two?

This team will contend for a decade because of the dude under center provided we don't have to scorch the earth at some point in the middle. You can't go all-in on every hand without eventually paying for it.
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I think you're probably right at least as it relates to Jones. But man, at some point you gotta pay the piper on Mahomes. Every dollar you defer is just another one you've gotta find the following season.

And Jones, if he has the kind of year he's capable of at DE, is gonna find himself in a whole new salary bracket as a dominant DE. They can surely get that $29 million figure down with an extension, but he'll be 28 at that point and is gonna want to be compensated as a premier DE in exchange. He's gonna look at that deal Myles Garrett signed through his age 31 season at $25 million/season and think that another couple of years added onto his deal at $25 million/per seems pretty fair...

As for Hill, I think we'd be lucky to see that cap hit fall to any lower than about $14 million. Cooper's year 1 hit was $12.5 million and he doesn't have the potential or production of Hill. Hill's cap hit next year is only about $16 million next year as it stands. Sure, Veach could bonus him out, but again, you can only kick so many cans down the road before they bite you.

Anybody paying attention knew that Veach's job would get incrementally harder every year and that a soft-reboot would probably be inevitable at some point. I'm guessing they'll keep trying to maximize Kelce's remaining premier seasons as those will probably coincide pretty closely with Jones and Hill. But every step they take in doing so is going to make the crash that comes in 2024 or so that much more jarring.

And if this OL comes together nicely and we're looking at the 2025 season with a nuked salary cap and a bunch of FA o-lineman hitting the market at about the same time...well wouldn't it be a bitch and a half to lose a bunch of talented young OL because we held on a year too long or gripped the reins just a little too tight over the previous season or two?

This team will contend for a decade because of the dude under center provided we don't have to scorch the earth at some point in the middle. You can't go all-in on every hand without eventually paying for it.

Yeah, I don't actually think they'll drive in on both Mahomes and Jones restructures. Maybe just Mahomes (and nothing says they have to restructure ALL of it).

They're going to have to make some hard choices and the first big one comes this year with Tyrann Mathieu. I don't think KC has much choice there.
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Veach and Tilis are magicians. Look at what they managed with the OL in 3 short months.

I have zero doubts Veach will have this thing humming right along.

Honey Badger made, and then deleted a tweet within a few minutes of eachother last week that said "$77" right after one of the bigger deals in the league got done, which was probably an emotional response (which they always are with him). If we can guess that is his number, $77M over 4 years at least tells us what we are looking at.

Let's not forget Veach did us a service this year with NOT extending and committing to OBJ. If OBJ isn't what we hope he is in the new offense, or God forbid gets injured, we still have the flexibility to make moves on that front with the draft or free agency.

I'm VERY interested to see what we do at DE. I doubt there's any way TJ Watt slips away from Pittsburgh, but they are locked in a bitter dispute heading into the offseason. Could be interesting to see us pull a blockbuster trade with a package of Mecole, Clark and a 1st if they truly hit an impasse. Unsure what that deal would look like on our books, and it's a pipedream, but that would be super cool to explore.

Also very curious to see what we do for WR #2 next year. JuJu will be a Free Agent and we were in on him this past year. There are some other big/interesting names, too: Davonte Adams, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton.
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When does the new TV money hit the books? 2023? That will change the landscape.

I'm guessing they're planning on paying the piper on good players rather than bidding up shit players to hit the floor. *ahemNBAahem*
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Originally Posted by tyecopeland:
The salary cap is going to make big jumps over the next few seasons. They'll probably try to make sure that it's spread out over a few years but it's going up.

That and both Allen and Mayfield are getting paid...Allen already. So unless this new wave of QBs turn into something special, quickly...there is a window for KC.

Mahomes contract, and correct me if I'm mistaken, is set-up to be "massaged" on yearly basis...and he has stated he's more interested in being on a competitive team.

He got some good advice as being on a perennial SB contender will make you more money in the long-haul...even after retirement.

As a fan...if they make it to 3 consecutive SBs...and winning two...I'll be content for the rest of my life.
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