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The Lounge>A Craig Stout theory on why Mahomes/offense has struggled.
Direckshun 03:31 AM 11-29-2021
His theory is because when defenses are playing the Chiefs, they change up their tendencies completely.

Teams normally do not play two-high shells like they've played against the Chiefs and other teams this season. So ultimately, when they face up against the Chiefs, they are trotting out a new look that the Chiefs simply don't have on tape. Certain players are playing in certain areas that they normally don't, so it's hard to tell in certain circumstances whether this player or that player will play shallow or deeper or bite on certain routes and whatnot. It's simply not on tape.

He mentions this because of the games where the offense has rolled. In particular, the Raiders played a lot of single-high, which they've done all season. Andy Reid's extensive scouting meant the Chiefs had a counter for everything they did and ended up dominating.

The Chargers played us in a two-high shell, but they normally play in a two-high shell anyway, so Andy Reid had that on tape, and had a counter for everything they did and the offense ended up dominating, even though we lost the game.

Otherwise, we're facing two-deeps from teams that simply don't play two-deep and they can only gameplan against what they think the scheme may end up -- all the defensive tape leading up to the game is not very helpful.

It's a plausible theory that we obviously can't prove at this point, but we can certainly keep an eye on it.

Does anybody know what defense Denver usually plays? Any Denver fans among us?
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Rausch 05:38 PM 11-29-2021
Throw in a completely new O line, a few injuries, and some bad luck with turnovers and that'll s'plain it...
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Tribal Warfare 05:48 PM 11-29-2021
Patrick's not hitting the touch passes as he did in the past is another issue
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Pasta Little Brother 06:09 PM 11-29-2021
Stout doesn't know any more than the average poster here. Less than the most knowledgeable posters
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MahomesMagic 06:22 PM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by crayzkirk:
I'm confused... if cover 2 is so good at taking away the big play and forcing teams to take small chunks and larger number of plays which increases the chances of a penalty or mistake, why would teams do anything else against anyone?

Or is this a better strategy against teams like the Chiefs and Bills who don't have the skill players to sit back and run the ball down their throats? Brady has made a career out of having a solid running game, good short passing game and occasional over the top play with a smothering defense.

Part of the problem is that the Chiefs don't have the running threat nor the mentality to keep running the ball. And other than Kelce and Hill, who have made their fair share of mistakes, the Chiefs have no one that Mahomes trusts in crucial situations. Teams would be stupid to not play the Chiefs in a cover 2 shell.
It's working right now against KC primarily because of our lack of a #2 WR. Teams are daring us to run and take short passes.

This goes against not only what Mahomes likes but Reids offense as well. Andy wants vertical shots and RPOs all game long.

Hopefully, with the extra time off we come out ready to punish teams because we have a nice OL. Running and throwing short passes are well within our capabilities...we just seem to get impatient too often and let it frustrate us.
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KCChiefsFan88 06:33 PM 11-29-2021
The Chiefs currently rank 2nd in total offense (yards per game) and 9th in points scored per game… yet everyone wants to talk about their supposed struggles.
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Detoxing 06:36 PM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
The Chiefs currently rank 2nd in total offense (yards per game) and 9th in points scored per game… yet everyone wants to talk about their supposed struggles.
Well that's what happens when you fail to reach 21 points in 4 of the last 5 games and turn the ball over at a rate we haven't seen from this regime.
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Chris Meck 06:49 PM 11-29-2021
guys, it's a little bit of ALL of the things. If it was just ONE thing, they'd fix it immediately.

lack of a #2? Yeah, a little bit.

Not taking the outlet to the back in the flat? Yeah, some of that.

Not making a commitment to running the ball? Yeah, a bit of that.

Patrick not getting the ball out fast enough? Yeah, that happens too.

Injuries and/or an entirely new offensive line? Yeah, some of that is happening.

Defenses breaking their norms and playing KC different than most teams? Yeah, they are doing that.

Receivers tipping the ball up in the air to the defense, and dropping passes, and everyone putting the ball on the ground too often? Yep, check that box too.

Good news is, different facets look better each week, so they're working on it. There will be starts and stops, but overall, it's getting better. They'll be fine.
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Detoxing 06:52 PM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
guys, it's a little bit of ALL of the things. If it was just ONE thing, they'd fix it immediately.

lack of a #2? Yeah, a little bit.

Not taking the outlet to the back in the flat? Yeah, some of that.

Not making a commitment to running the ball? Yeah, a bit of that.

Patrick not getting the ball out fast enough? Yeah, that happens too.

Injuries and/or an entirely new offensive line? Yeah, some of that is happening.

Defenses breaking their norms and playing KC different than most teams? Yeah, they are doing that.

Receivers tipping the ball up in the air to the defense, and dropping passes, and everyone putting the ball on the ground too often? Yep, check that box too.

Good news is, different facets look better each week, so they're working on it. There will be starts and stops, but overall, it's getting better. They'll be fine.
Yup.
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Marcellus 06:52 PM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by oldman:
While I agree that 10-12 play drives have a greater chance for error, those same drives do a couple of things to help us. First, the other guys' O is sitting on the pines not scoring and their D is getting worn out chasing Hill, PMII, and Kelce. Second, our D is sitting on the pines, drinking Gatorade, and getting a rest. A fresh D is a better D than one that has to play 35-40 min. of the game.
Chiefs have held the ball on offense an average of about 1:58 more per game than the defense has been on the field. This was true even when the defense was dumpster fire earlier in the season.
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Hog's Gone Fishin 07:03 PM 11-29-2021
We have 22 Give aways , 2nd only to the NY Jets. That is why we're not 9-2

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/...aways/dir/desc
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mnchiefsguy 07:03 PM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
guys, it's a little bit of ALL of the things. If it was just ONE thing, they'd fix it immediately.

lack of a #2? Yeah, a little bit.

Not taking the outlet to the back in the flat? Yeah, some of that.

Not making a commitment to running the ball? Yeah, a bit of that.

Patrick not getting the ball out fast enough? Yeah, that happens too.

Injuries and/or an entirely new offensive line? Yeah, some of that is happening.

Defenses breaking their norms and playing KC different than most teams? Yeah, they are doing that.

Receivers tipping the ball up in the air to the defense, and dropping passes, and everyone putting the ball on the ground too often? Yep, check that box too.

Good news is, different facets look better each week, so they're working on it. There will be starts and stops, but overall, it's getting better. They'll be fine.
Yep. Stops and starts...2 steps forward, one step back. Keep advancing and grinding out wins and it will all come together by playoff time. The team will be better for the experience.
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JohnnyV13 07:24 PM 11-29-2021
I think it's more than other teams playing a two-deep shell that the Chiefs haven't seen them do.

I think the issue is that teams have changed up their reading keys. Remember the famous "wasp" play from the Super Bowl?

Watch a breakdown of that play and you'll hear that the play design exploits how defenders are taught to react in that particular coverage and Mahomes ability to make throws most QBs can't.

It's very difficult to break how you've been taught to play D your entire career, but apparently, safeties are learning to "stay home" on routes where they've been taught to crash underneath receivers bc the typical QB can't make those throws. Mahomes has burned them enough times that defenders have "recalibrated" their instincts.

Plus, there are more "athletic freak" QBs like Mahomes in the league now, such as Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson etc. that they're more used to playing those guys.

Some of this explains why you'll see Mahomes hold the ball after looking deep because his read makes him expect it to be open and it's not. Then he'll often get sacked.
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Hog's Gone Fishin 07:28 PM 11-29-2021
You morons ! Clay already told you !
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Shaid 07:56 PM 11-29-2021
I get it for a few games but if you start seeing that shell all the time, you should start having some good counters for it. Even if different teams play it slightly differently, it's still the same general look.
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Halfcan 09:45 PM 11-29-2021
Mahomes has 3200 yards and 25 TD's.

He could end up with over 5,000 yards and 40+ Td's for the year.

Not bad for an impatient gunslinger, who has terrible footwork and can't read defenses. :-)
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