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The Lounge>A Craig Stout theory on why Mahomes/offense has struggled.
Direckshun 03:31 AM 11-29-2021
His theory is because when defenses are playing the Chiefs, they change up their tendencies completely.

Teams normally do not play two-high shells like they've played against the Chiefs and other teams this season. So ultimately, when they face up against the Chiefs, they are trotting out a new look that the Chiefs simply don't have on tape. Certain players are playing in certain areas that they normally don't, so it's hard to tell in certain circumstances whether this player or that player will play shallow or deeper or bite on certain routes and whatnot. It's simply not on tape.

He mentions this because of the games where the offense has rolled. In particular, the Raiders played a lot of single-high, which they've done all season. Andy Reid's extensive scouting meant the Chiefs had a counter for everything they did and ended up dominating.

The Chargers played us in a two-high shell, but they normally play in a two-high shell anyway, so Andy Reid had that on tape, and had a counter for everything they did and the offense ended up dominating, even though we lost the game.

Otherwise, we're facing two-deeps from teams that simply don't play two-deep and they can only gameplan against what they think the scheme may end up -- all the defensive tape leading up to the game is not very helpful.

It's a plausible theory that we obviously can't prove at this point, but we can certainly keep an eye on it.

Does anybody know what defense Denver usually plays? Any Denver fans among us?
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BleedingRed 10:40 AM 11-29-2021
We should have beat the Ravens/Chargers had we not had turnovers at the works moments.
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Detoxing 10:41 AM 11-29-2021
Ultimately it comes down to turnovers. But the schemes are certainly affecting the Chiefs.

The one team who strayed from the "formula" got absolutely fucking roasted. Any chance of teams playing us any other way went out the window after that Raiders game.

Mahomes is telling you himself. "No one is seeing the looks the Chiefs are seeing". He didn't mean just the cover-2 shell. He means the frequency and adherence to it. Teams just aren't coming out of it no matter what.

Allen, Brady, Herbert etc they all see it too. The difference is that they see less of it and therefore get more opportunities for big plays down the field.

Allen is the next closest to the "Mahomes Treatment", and it's how hte Jags held them to (6? 9?) points.
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Marcellus 10:43 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Yup.

This is just an idiotic talking head narrative being spouted by national guys who aren't watching this team, just looking at the box scores.

Mahomes is absolutely looking for quick passes and Reid is dialing up coverage breakers.

The scheme isn't the problem. And the QBs mindset isn't a problem at this point either. It's just a team scuffling a bit - shit happens.
Kelce leads the team in drops and is personally responsible for 2 of Pats INT's coming off his hands.

Hill has dropped several as well but is on pace to set a receptions high for a season next Sunday in week 12 and you can count on one hand how many of those have been deep passes.

Untimely penalties and turnovers are the difference between early season KC offense which was scoring what 3.5 pts per drive? Mahomes was hitting on 75% completion % even with drops and turnovers. Thats hard to sustain.

Get back to 70% completion stop the dumb shit. Profit.
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PunkinDrublic 10:44 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
We should have beat the Ravens/Chargers had we not had turnovers at the works moments.
Yeah but now their injuries are mounting while the Chiefs are starting to play better down the stretch. If we spend the next month beating up the division, we’ll be fine.
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DJ's left nut 10:47 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Kelce leads the team in drops and is personally responsible for 2 of Pats INT's coming off his hands.

Hill has dropped several as well but is on pace to set a receptions high for a season next Sunday in week 12 and you can count on one hand how many of those have been deep passes.

Untimely penalties and turnovers are the difference between early season KC offense which was scoring what 3.5 pts per drive? mahomet was hitting on 75% completion % even with drops and turnovers. Thats hard to sustain.

Get back to 70% completion stop the dumb shit. Profit.
And Mahomes, when he's taking the deep shots, is missing them.

To whatever extent scheme is causing a problem - that may be it. He's getting 'big eyes' when he gets his shot plays downfield and overcooking the throw a bit. It's that sort of 'buck fever' problem that comes when you see a dozen does all day then some big ass buck shows up and your hands start to tremble.

But if you're seeing decent bucks most of the day then see the one you want - you're gonna be free and easy.

That's about as much as I'll attribute to scheme. Scheme has nothing to do with Kelce and Hill dropping balls or Hardman vapor locking. It has very little do to with unforced offensive penalties - especially when teams are showing vanilla looks on their fronts.

Mahomes used to get 3-5 'shot plays'/gm and would hit them at a 60% clip. Now he's gettin 1-3 and maybe connects on a single one of them. That translates to a big damn difference on the scoreboard, especially when compounded w/ the turnovers - many of which are just mental mistakes.
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O.city 10:48 AM 11-29-2021
Chiefs fans didn't wanna hear it, but Mahomes wasn't playing well. At all. He was impatient and didn't trust the pocket.

Cover two is about sitting in there, being patient, taking the 6-8 yard completions over and over and just wearing teams out with it.
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chiefzilla1501 10:54 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by O.city:
Chiefs fans didn't wanna hear it, but Mahomes wasn't playing well. At all. He was impatient and didn't trust the pocket.

Cover two is about sitting in there, being patient, taking the 6-8 yard completions over and over and just wearing teams out with it.
I wouldn’t say “at all.” To put it positively, let’s just say mahomes is playing qb way better now. His pocket presence has improved substantially past few weeks

But also kinda can’t blame him. If we’re grinding out long drives every drop and penalty matters and we have been shooting ourselves in the foot at an alarming rate. And we keep doing it. We’re stuck mostly with what we got . Let’s hope kelce got healthy over the break. And we need Gordon to start catching what comes to him. His dropsies are really surprising.
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Dante84 10:56 AM 11-29-2021
Just wait until Mahomes has seen it all.

Right now he's like Neo in the Matrix, processing every single martial art. If this is how good he can be against shit he hasn't seen, just wait until he's been around the block a few times and seen it all.

Like, in 2 years, he might be a truly unstoppable force (assuming the roster keeps up).
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O.city 10:57 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501:
I wouldn’t say “at all.” To put it positively, let’s just say mahomes is playing qb way better now. His pocket presence has improved substantially past few weeks

But also kinda can’t blame him. If we’re grinding out long drives every drop and penalty matters and we have been shooting ourselves in the foot at an alarming rate. And we keep doing it. We’re stuck mostly with what we got . Let’s hope kelce got healthy over the break. And we need Gordon to start catching what comes to him. His dropsies are really surprising.
Some of the stuff wasn't his fault, sure.

But Mahomes wasn't playing well. He was seeing ghosts, leaving clean pockets and just trying to hit home runs with every swing.
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oldman 10:57 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
This.

Better execution = more points.

They can beat the Cover 2, they've shown they can. They just have to be patient and not make stupid mistakes. Until the last couple of weeks, they weren't doing either.
This. I don't care if it's running the ball or short quick passes, sooner or later the D has to come out of that Cover 2 or just have their offense sit on the pines. I'd much rather win 17-6 than lose 41-35. Stupid mistakes have cost us games and others, like unsportmanslike penalties have cost us points. Quit that shit.
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Detoxing 10:58 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Dante84:
Just wait until Mahomes has seen it all.

Right now he's like Neo in the Matrix, processing every single martial art. If this is how good he can be against shit he hasn't seen, just wait until he's been around the block a few times and seen it all.

Like, in 2 years, he might be a truly unstoppable force (assuming the roster keeps up).
Yup.
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O.city 11:00 AM 11-29-2021
Teams used to do this to Manning. He wanted to strike down field quick and score. Teams made him be patient, take the short stuff and be accurate with it.

Eventually he'd get impatient and take a chance and you'd have him.
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DJ's left nut 11:01 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501:
I wouldn’t say “at all.” To put it positively, let’s just say mahomes is playing qb way better now. His pocket presence has improved substantially past few weeks

But also kinda can’t blame him. If we’re grinding out long drives every drop and penalty matters and we have been shooting ourselves in the foot at an alarming rate. And we keep doing it. We’re stuck mostly with what we got . Let’s hope kelce got healthy over the break. And we need Gordon to start catching what comes to him. His dropsies are really surprising.
Yeah - this has been the most frustrating part of 'the narrative'.

Many of those times people are complaining is when we're behind the sticks and Mahomes is working to keep a drive alive. Then he'll force a ball 14 yards downfield when we needed 10 and the narrative lives because he wasn't content taking 5 yards and punting.

That's a GOOD thing. But you don't realize what's happening until you watch every snap of every game.

Now that wasn't the case 5 weeks ago, but he's absolutely playing well now. He's doing what people are asking of him and largely doing it well.
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DJ's left nut 11:03 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by O.city:
Teams used to do this to Manning. He wanted to strike down field quick and score. Teams made him be patient, take the short stuff and be accurate with it.

Eventually he'd get impatient and take a chance and you'd have him.
They key is to stay out of those situations that cause the impatience.

And the way to do that is to continue to execute on short/intermediate throws. But when the offense is stalling because of mistakes, it's hard from drive to drive to maintain that patience. And when it goes on for a half, then it's even harder still because now even on plays that work, you feel the need to 'make up' for points you left on the field.
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Detoxing 11:07 AM 11-29-2021
This team has always been kinda mistake prone. They struggled to put teams away last season. In '19 they'd make dumb mistakes too. The Rams game comes to mind. The Texans playoff game. But they always made huge plays to compensate.

We're seeing mistakes at a higher volume coupled with less explosive plays downfield. The fact that it takes them 12 plays to score is what's leading to the higher volume of turnovers.
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