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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>The best GM on the third day of the draft... isn't even close.
Direckshun 08:04 AM 05-16-2023
This is shocking, the degree to which Veach has built a Super Bowl team on the back of third day selections.

2019:

No. 201: Rashad Fenton, CB (South Carolina)
No. 214: Darwin Thompson, RB (Utah State)
No. 216: Nick Allegretti, OG (Illinois)
UDFA: Darius Harris, Tim Ward

2020:

No. 138: LíJarius Sneed, DB (Louisiana Tech)
No. 177: Mike Danna, DE (Michigan)
No. 237: BoPete Keyes, CB (Tulane)
UDFA: Yasir Durant, Tommy Townsend, Turk Wharton

2021:

No. 144: Joshua Kaindoh, DE (Florida State)
No. 162: Noah Gray, TE (Duke)
No. 181: Cornell Powell, WR (Clemson)
No. 226: Trey Smith, OG (Tennessee)
UDFA: Shane Buechele, Dicaprio Bootle, Malik Herring

2022:

No. 135: Joshua Williams, CB (Fayetteville State)
No. 145: Darian Kinnard, OT (Kentucky)
No. 243: Jaylen Watson, CB (Washington State)
No. 251: Isiah Pacheco, RB (Rutgers)
No. 260: Nazeeh Johnson, CB (Marshall)
UDFA: Justyn Ross, Jerrion Ealy, Jack Cochrane

That's just a hit rate that's downright embarrassing.

Not including the UDFAs, that's 15 players.

Of those 15 players, that's SEVEN players who are either perennial starters (Sneed, Smith, Williams, Watson, Pacheco) or who have been regular starters at one point on the roster (Fenton, Allegretti). And two other players I think we'd classify as critical cogs who don't start (Danna, Gray).

That's a third day draft pick "hit" rate of 60% -- absurd. And with Veach raking in usable UDFAs every year, this is how the team is going to remain competitive throughout the Mahomes/Veach tenure.

I don't think there's any secret here, like Veach is magically smarter than everyone else. I think he does have one advantage, and that's a Hall of Fame coaching staff coaching up his prospects.

But mostly, I think the teams that work the hardest are the teams that do the best on the third day.

I don't think there's a single team that does more quality work on the third day of the draft.
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DJ's left nut 08:26 AM 05-16-2023
Originally Posted by Direckshun:

Of those 15 players, that's SEVEN players who are either perennial starters (Sneed, Smith, Williams, Watson, Pacheco) or who have been regular starters at one point on the roster (Fenton, Allegretti). And two other players I think we'd classify as critical cogs who don't start (Danna, Gray).

That's a third day draft pick "hit" rate of 60% -- absurd. And with Veach raking in usable UDFAs every year, this is how the team is going to remain competitive throughout the Mahomes/Veach tenure.
That's essentially the value of a 2nd round pick. Your typical hit rate on a 2nd round pick is like 55% of them turn into valuable everyday starters by their 3rd year in the league. And Sneed, Smith and Pacheco are all clear high value starters at their respective position. Williams and Watson would be the back side of that 2nd round 'hit' but between the 2 of them, that's 4 quality starters.

When you put it like that, the Chiefs have essentially turned the 3rd day into the 2nd round. Even when you remove the value of 'shell-gaming' those picks up from the 3rd day about 6-8 'extra' 2nd round picks typically being required to yield that kind of return.

Yeah, he's absolutely murdered day 3.
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RunKC 08:55 AM 05-16-2023
Well heís not a draft pick but I would be remiss if we didnít mention Charvarius Ward. Veach traded Parker Ehinger at the end of August to the Cowboys for him and the rest is history.

Overall I think Veach is better on day 3 than day 1 or 2 and Iím fine with it as long as we keep hitting
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O.city 08:59 AM 05-16-2023
Originally Posted by RunKC:
Well heís not a draft pick but I would be remiss if we didnít mention Charvarius Ward. Veach traded Parker Ehinger at the end of August to the Cowboys for him and the rest is history.

Overall I think Veach is better on day 3 than day 1 or 2 and Iím fine with it as long as we keep hitting
He's gonna have to start hitting cornerstone guys on day 1 and 2 as Kelce and Jones age out a bit more.
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RunKC 09:04 AM 05-16-2023
Originally Posted by O.city:
He's gonna have to start hitting cornerstone guys on day 1 and 2 as Kelce and Jones age out a bit more.
I agree but I do believe we have 1 cornerstone blue chip drafted player at a strong position.

Trent McDuffie is really good at football. And heís an excellent cover corner. He dropped quite a few INTís on some tough balls but I think he puts that together.
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The Franchise 09:10 AM 05-16-2023
Originally Posted by O.city:
He's gonna have to start hitting cornerstone guys on day 1 and 2 as Kelce and Jones age out a bit more.
I think you have to lower your expectations a little bit. You just brought up one guy who is a lock for the HOF and another that is pretty damn close.

Cornerstone guys are hard to come by when you're picking as late as we are. All we can hope for is him to keep hitting on good picks and finding a diamond in the rough out of one of them.
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O.city 09:12 AM 05-16-2023
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
I think you have to lower your expectations a little bit. You just brought up one guy who is a lock for the HOF and another that is pretty damn close.

Cornerstone guys are hard to come by when you're picking as late as we are. All we can hope for is him to keep hitting on good picks and finding a diamond in the rough out of one of them.
The 2nd round pick or the 3rd rounder that turned out to be HOFers?

I do agree it's hard. They aren't asking any of them to come in and be that right away and it may be about time we have to spend some resources to trade up fairly high in the draft to get a guy (LT maybe).
[Reply]
The Franchise 09:14 AM 05-16-2023
Originally Posted by O.city:
The 2nd round pick or the 3rd rounder that turned out to be HOFers?

I do agree it's hard. They aren't asking any of them to come in and be that right away and it may be about time we have to spend some resources to trade up fairly high in the draft to get a guy (LT maybe).
Yeah but it's not like anyone looked back at those picks and saw cornerstone guys. They became them because of talent and their work ethic. Shit, Kelce was a hot head for the first few years of his career. I don't think anyone saw him as cornerstone back then.
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RunKC 09:19 AM 05-16-2023
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
I think you have to lower your expectations a little bit. You just brought up one guy who is a lock for the HOF and another that is pretty damn close.

Cornerstone guys are hard to come by when you're picking as late as we are. All we can hope for is him to keep hitting on good picks and finding a diamond in the rough out of one of them.
The good news is that if your GM is consistently hitting on rookies that are good, solid football players then that will free up money to go bag a game changer in FA. I like that Veach is getting quality FAís like Reid/Omenihu at fair prices and has elected not to overpay players that donít deserve it.

Weíre paying Chris Jones that money now but if this model continues after Chris is gone then his money can go to another big FA addition.
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Mecca 09:20 AM 05-16-2023
Originally Posted by RunKC:
The good news is that if your GM is consistently hitting on rookies that are good, solid football players then that will free up money to go bag a game changer in FA. I like that Veach is getting quality FAís like Reid/Omenihu at fair prices and has elected not to overpay players that donít deserve it.

Weíre paying Chris Jones that money now but if this model continues after Chris is gone then his money can go to another big FA addition.
Game changers don't really get into FA these days.
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O.city 09:21 AM 05-16-2023
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Game changers don't really get into FA these days.
Probably have to go the route of trading and signing if you want one.
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RealSNR 09:25 AM 05-16-2023
Originally Posted by O.city:
He's gonna have to start hitting cornerstone guys on day 1 and 2 as Kelce and Jones age out a bit more.
Here we go with the position value stuff again, but I'd argue Bolton and Humphrey are top 5 at their position in the league. Those are absolutely cornerstone guys. McDuffie has the chance to be a top 5 corner too, I think.

Just freaking relax, man.
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O.city 09:27 AM 05-16-2023
Yeah I think Bolton and Humphrey are for sure. I'm hopeful with McDuffie, but we just need to let that play out a bit more.

The issue is just that the spots they're starting to run into (DE, LT, WR) are guys that either go really high in the draft or are taken a bit later with some flaws.
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RunKC 09:29 AM 05-16-2023
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Game changers don't really get into FA these days.
They donít?!

Javon Hargrave
Jessie Bates
Von Miller
Haason Reddick
ZaíDarius Smith
DreíMont Jones-one fewest pass rush snaps from a DT the last 2 years bc Denver never had a lead. Still had 6.5 sacks. Heís gonna break out on a better team IMO

Thatís off the top of my head for the last 2 years, this year being a weak FA class.
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O.city 09:31 AM 05-16-2023
Yeah, third contract defensive guys, injury guys etc.

Those aren't what youre looking for.
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