David Ojabos tape last year was very impressive and we have talked endlessly about his fit here and elsewhere. We’ve talked about his ability being a top 15 pick kind of player. We’ve talked about how those guys won’t be in our range in the next decade because Mahomes will always having us in contention for a title so we will be picking at the tail end of the first every year, unless a big trade up is done.
What I’m going to attempt to do is rationalize his actual value in his present state assuming reports that it was a “clean tear” are true and that he shouldn’t miss more than a year before returning to the field. At his age and todays surgeons ability to perform these surgeries more routinely means there’s a reasonable chance he gets to close to full strength in 2023 and possibly on the field before the playoffs this season.
Pick 15 (his perceived value prior to injury) is worth 55.08 points in the Rich Hill chart. That value is based on his attributes and potential NFL upside as a high end edge rusher that would be cost controlled for 5 years as a first round pick. By losing a year due to recovery and rehab, that drops that value, but how do we asses how much it drops by? Every NFL team is trying to find out where he sits on their board with those factors involved.
Here’s where it may get rough for Ojabo:
-He’s a 1 year starter
-He was playing across from a rusher equally or more talented as him
-His game is based on explosion, bend and change of direction blended with power. The injury puts all of those attributes at risk.
-This Edge class has 10 or so pass rushers that can all start playing in their rookie seasons.
-If he’s not worth a 1st, that drops his value by 20% right there by the loss of the 5th year option.
-If he’s worth a second or later, he’s only going to be available for 3 of those years, so that further drops his value to teams as that’s 30 (or more) games he won’t suit up for the team that drafts him. Also, once he’s able to play, there’s no assurance he regains his explosiveness that made him so intriging.
Realistically, you’d have to place his current value at pick 33 (31.24 points) minus 25% (for the loss of the year for rehab) and that brings his value in draft value points down to 23.43 points. Basically the equivalent of pick 44. That might even be viewed by some as a best case scenario of his current value.
That’s figuring that the team that drafts him thinks he can make a full recovery and provide the impact we saw on tape after rehab. That’s a lot to ask and may not be rooted in objective thinking that’s required when managing the type of resources GMs are given to run NFL teams with. Whatever GM takes him will be gambling a big part of his job on that move, especially when a premium pick is used…especially if he’s taken in the first. That’s a “you better be right” kind of swing for the fences.
I don’t see mocks reflecting this drop in value as I still see him going in the first 25-30 picks in most of them.
Should we almost expect him to have a good chance to be there when we pick at 50? Is it possible he falls to the high 50s or even to our pick at 62, with all this taken into consideration? Players with injuries during the process drop significantly sometimes. I guess we will see.
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