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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Will Ojabo fall further than some think?
BossChief 07:16 PM 04-11-2022
David Ojabos tape last year was very impressive and we have talked endlessly about his fit here and elsewhere. We’ve talked about his ability being a top 15 pick kind of player. We’ve talked about how those guys won’t be in our range in the next decade because Mahomes will always having us in contention for a title so we will be picking at the tail end of the first every year, unless a big trade up is done.

What I’m going to attempt to do is rationalize his actual value in his present state assuming reports that it was a “clean tear” are true and that he shouldn’t miss more than a year before returning to the field. At his age and todays surgeons ability to perform these surgeries more routinely means there’s a reasonable chance he gets to close to full strength in 2023 and possibly on the field before the playoffs this season.

Pick 15 (his perceived value prior to injury) is worth 55.08 points in the Rich Hill chart. That value is based on his attributes and potential NFL upside as a high end edge rusher that would be cost controlled for 5 years as a first round pick. By losing a year due to recovery and rehab, that drops that value, but how do we asses how much it drops by? Every NFL team is trying to find out where he sits on their board with those factors involved.

Here’s where it may get rough for Ojabo:

-He’s a 1 year starter
-He was playing across from a rusher equally or more talented as him
-His game is based on explosion, bend and change of direction blended with power. The injury puts all of those attributes at risk.
-This Edge class has 10 or so pass rushers that can all start playing in their rookie seasons.
-If he’s not worth a 1st, that drops his value by 20% right there by the loss of the 5th year option.
-If he’s worth a second or later, he’s only going to be available for 3 of those years, so that further drops his value to teams as that’s 30 (or more) games he won’t suit up for the team that drafts him. Also, once he’s able to play, there’s no assurance he regains his explosiveness that made him so intriging.

Realistically, you’d have to place his current value at pick 33 (31.24 points) minus 25% (for the loss of the year for rehab) and that brings his value in draft value points down to 23.43 points. Basically the equivalent of pick 44. That might even be viewed by some as a best case scenario of his current value.

That’s figuring that the team that drafts him thinks he can make a full recovery and provide the impact we saw on tape after rehab. That’s a lot to ask and may not be rooted in objective thinking that’s required when managing the type of resources GMs are given to run NFL teams with. Whatever GM takes him will be gambling a big part of his job on that move, especially when a premium pick is used…especially if he’s taken in the first. That’s a “you better be right” kind of swing for the fences.

I don’t see mocks reflecting this drop in value as I still see him going in the first 25-30 picks in most of them.

Should we almost expect him to have a good chance to be there when we pick at 50? Is it possible he falls to the high 50s or even to our pick at 62, with all this taken into consideration? Players with injuries during the process drop significantly sometimes. I guess we will see.
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BossChief 02:20 PM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
Why couldn't we do the same? We aren't winning the super bowl this year. It makes the most sense to take him at 29 or 30.
Dude…the year we won the Super Bowl we were like 8-5 or something and got beat bad by the colts and titans.

Nobody knows if we’re going to make noise or not in early April before the draft. Cmon.

That said…I wouldn’t pass on Ojabo if he’s available when we pick unless it’s for something unrealistic like Seattles 40 and 41 picks…then they can have him.
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htismaqe 02:21 PM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
Dude…the year we won the Super Bowl we were like 8-5 or something and got beat bad by the colts and titans.

Nobody knows if we’re going to make noise or not in early April before the draft. Cmon.

That said…I wouldn’t pass on Ojabo if he’s available when we pick unless it’s for something unrealistic like Seattles 40 and 41 picks…then they can have him.
At 50. Not at 29 or 30.
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DJ's left nut 02:51 PM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
Why couldn't we do the same? We aren't winning the super bowl this year. It makes the most sense to take him at 29 or 30.
We have Mahomes - we’re as likely as anyone to make the postseason.

And if we make it, we’re as likely to survive and advance. It’s not like this team is going to be worse than the bengals were last season.

It’s their hardest road since ‘18 for sure, but it’s not out of the question
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BossChief 03:09 PM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
At 50. Not at 29 or 30.
If I’m taking him, I want that 5th year option to offset the list year to rehab, but I understand your point of view and respect it.
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Titty Meat 03:10 PM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
Dude…the year we won the Super Bowl we were like 8-5 or something and got beat bad by the colts and titans.

Nobody knows if we’re going to make noise or not in early April before the draft. Cmon.

That said…I wouldn’t pass on Ojabo if he’s available when we pick unless it’s for something unrealistic like Seattles 40 and 41 picks…then they can have him.
We were the pre season favorites to win it all.
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Titty Meat 03:12 PM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
We have Mahomes - we’re as likely as anyone to make the postseason.

And if we make it, we’re as likely to survive and advance. It’s not like this team is going to be worse than the bengals were last season.

It’s their hardest road since ‘18 for sure, but it’s not out of the question
I have no doubt we make the playoffs if Mahomes stays healthy but if you think asding 3 rookies on defense makes us a super bowl favorite that's a bridge too far.
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DJ's left nut 03:25 PM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
I have no doubt we make the playoffs if Mahomes stays healthy but if you think asding 3 rookies on defense makes us a super bowl favorite that's a bridge too far.
Who said favorite?

"It's not out of the question" is not a ringing endorsement.

But you said it's not happening and I can't get there.

The pre-season favorite doesn't win the thing all that often.

2021 season: Chiefs (Rams)
2020 season: Chiefs (Bucs)
2019 season: Patriots (Chiefs)
2018 season: Patriots (Pats)
2017 season: Patriots (Eagles)
2016 season: Patriots (Pats)
2015: Seahawks (Broncos)
2014: Seahawks (Patriots)
2013: Broncos (Seahawks)
2012: Packers/Pats (Ravens)
2011: Patriots (Giants)
2010: Colts (Packers)
2009: Patriots (Saints)
2008: Patriots (Steelers)
2007: Patriots (Giants)
2006: Colts (Colts)
2005: Colts (Steelers)
2004: Eagles (Patriots)
2003: Bucs (Patriots)
2002: Rams (Bucs)
2001: Rams (Patriots)
2000: Rams (Ravens)


I could keep going back but I believe my point is made. Three times this century, twice by Brady and once by Manning, has the pre-season betting favorite to win the championship actually won it.

Ask me if I give a shit who the 'favorite' to win the Super Bowl is...
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RunKC 03:34 PM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
I have no doubt we make the playoffs if Mahomes stays healthy but if you think asding 3 rookies on defense makes us a super bowl favorite that's a bridge too far.
The team overall should be better with these picks
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DJ's left nut 03:46 PM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by RunKC:
The team overall should be better with these picks
Than last year's team? Nah.

Obviously losing Hill is tough but losing Ward (with no obvious replacement, especially from a depth 3CB standpoint w/ Fenton moving up) is brutal. And I think we'll be able to pivot to deal with losing Hill but man, I don't see drafted corner stepping in this season and providing the kind of play Ward did last year.

Maybe one of those cheaper veteran CB options when they don't get signed for what they're looking for or get cut after the draft could help. And as a 1-year stop gap that might be good enough.

As for the DL - man, our DL sucked so hard last season that I just fail to see how it's gotten any WORSE.

The real issue isn't the Chiefs - it's everyone else. We aren't better and I don't think we will be. But I don't believe the post-draft team will be a LOT worse either. The issue is that everyone else in the division is much much better than they were a year ago. Like 2-3 wins (in a vacuum) better each. At least.

That's a savage slate to deal with, especially when the non-divisional schedule is as tough as it is.

It's gonna be a brutal season but that doesn't mean the Chiefs can't get through it on top.
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Titty Meat 04:09 PM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by RunKC:
The team overall should be better with these picks
I don't see it. You don't replace Hill, rookie CB isn't going to play at Wards level. Whatever WR we draft is likely to take a year or so to grasp Reids system. This draft will be key to the future but I'm not putting much stock into next year.
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Couch-Potato 05:56 AM 04-13-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
If I’m taking him, I want that 5th year option to offset the list year to rehab, but I understand your point of view and respect it.
Interesting take.
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htismaqe 07:41 AM 04-13-2022
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Than last year's team? Nah.

Obviously losing Hill is tough but losing Ward (with no obvious replacement, especially from a depth 3CB standpoint w/ Fenton moving up) is brutal. And I think we'll be able to pivot to deal with losing Hill but man, I don't see drafted corner stepping in this season and providing the kind of play Ward did last year.

Maybe one of those cheaper veteran CB options when they don't get signed for what they're looking for or get cut after the draft could help. And as a 1-year stop gap that might be good enough.

As for the DL - man, our DL sucked so hard last season that I just fail to see how it's gotten any WORSE.

The real issue isn't the Chiefs - it's everyone else. We aren't better and I don't think we will be. But I don't believe the post-draft team will be a LOT worse either. The issue is that everyone else in the division is much much better than they were a year ago. Like 2-3 wins (in a vacuum) better each. At least.

That's a savage slate to deal with, especially when the non-divisional schedule is as tough as it is.

It's gonna be a brutal season but that doesn't mean the Chiefs can't get through it on top.
Every season is brutal. That's the nature of parity. Just look at the 2019 season and how all seemed lost at the midpoint. Or last year, when the team was 3-4 yet managed to make the AFCCG.

Anything can happen when you have Mahomes.
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Chris Meck 08:05 AM 04-13-2022
The thing about taking Ojabo is, it kind of forces you to take a high floor DE that can go day one.

I'm down for double dipping, but I don't like being forced to do so.
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BossChief 08:51 AM 04-13-2022
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
The thing about taking Ojabo is, it kind of forces you to take a high floor DE that can go day one.

I'm down for double dipping, but I don't like being forced to do so.
Or sign a vet for a year. Maybe a guy like Trey Flowers.
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Dante84 08:54 AM 04-13-2022
Guys I have a confession to make. I subconsciously avoided reviewing Ojabo's tape until last night because of his achilles tear. It was a non-starter for me, and it was dumb to overlook him until now.

I knew he was a top edge, and had seen one-off random highlights.

But in watching him play last night... the guy has fucking Derrick Thomas upside. I saw multiple plays where I was like, "Goddamn...that looks like DT."

I am more than happy to take a swing on him at 30 or 50 if Veach feels good about it.
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