ChiefsPlanet Mobile
Page 1 of 6
1 2345 > Last »
Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Will Ojabo fall further than some think?
BossChief 07:16 PM 04-11-2022
David Ojabos tape last year was very impressive and we have talked endlessly about his fit here and elsewhere. We’ve talked about his ability being a top 15 pick kind of player. We’ve talked about how those guys won’t be in our range in the next decade because Mahomes will always having us in contention for a title so we will be picking at the tail end of the first every year, unless a big trade up is done.

What I’m going to attempt to do is rationalize his actual value in his present state assuming reports that it was a “clean tear” are true and that he shouldn’t miss more than a year before returning to the field. At his age and todays surgeons ability to perform these surgeries more routinely means there’s a reasonable chance he gets to close to full strength in 2023 and possibly on the field before the playoffs this season.

Pick 15 (his perceived value prior to injury) is worth 55.08 points in the Rich Hill chart. That value is based on his attributes and potential NFL upside as a high end edge rusher that would be cost controlled for 5 years as a first round pick. By losing a year due to recovery and rehab, that drops that value, but how do we asses how much it drops by? Every NFL team is trying to find out where he sits on their board with those factors involved.

Here’s where it may get rough for Ojabo:

-He’s a 1 year starter
-He was playing across from a rusher equally or more talented as him
-His game is based on explosion, bend and change of direction blended with power. The injury puts all of those attributes at risk.
-This Edge class has 10 or so pass rushers that can all start playing in their rookie seasons.
-If he’s not worth a 1st, that drops his value by 20% right there by the loss of the 5th year option.
-If he’s worth a second or later, he’s only going to be available for 3 of those years, so that further drops his value to teams as that’s 30 (or more) games he won’t suit up for the team that drafts him. Also, once he’s able to play, there’s no assurance he regains his explosiveness that made him so intriging.

Realistically, you’d have to place his current value at pick 33 (31.24 points) minus 25% (for the loss of the year for rehab) and that brings his value in draft value points down to 23.43 points. Basically the equivalent of pick 44. That might even be viewed by some as a best case scenario of his current value.

That’s figuring that the team that drafts him thinks he can make a full recovery and provide the impact we saw on tape after rehab. That’s a lot to ask and may not be rooted in objective thinking that’s required when managing the type of resources GMs are given to run NFL teams with. Whatever GM takes him will be gambling a big part of his job on that move, especially when a premium pick is used…especially if he’s taken in the first. That’s a “you better be right” kind of swing for the fences.

I don’t see mocks reflecting this drop in value as I still see him going in the first 25-30 picks in most of them.

Should we almost expect him to have a good chance to be there when we pick at 50? Is it possible he falls to the high 50s or even to our pick at 62, with all this taken into consideration? Players with injuries during the process drop significantly sometimes. I guess we will see.
[Reply]
staylor26 07:20 PM 04-11-2022
Dayo Odeyingbo was probably an early 2nd rounder last year without his Achilles injury, and he still went 54th.

I don’t see Ojabo making it out of the top 40 picks.
[Reply]
BossChief 07:36 PM 04-11-2022
Originally Posted by staylor26:
Dayo Odeyingbo was probably an early 2nd rounder last year without his Achilles injury, and he still went 54th.

I don’t see Ojabo making it out of the top 40 picks.
Personally, I don’t either and thanks for the direct reference to a recent situation with some similarities. I think a GM is going to gamble on his upside. I’d love to see us move up from 29 to early 20s to get Olave or Johnson and then move back from 30 to 37 and get Ojabo there while adding a third. That kind of maneuvering would help a lot towards fixing the pass rush even if Ojabo can’t play right away and providing limitless upside if he’s able to return with his explosiveness mostly intact.

But I can definitely see the opposite happening, as well. Ojabo didn’t have the same type of play history as Dayo did, but also didn’t have quite the upside hype, either.
[Reply]
The Franchise 08:04 PM 04-11-2022
Jaylon Smith had a worse injury and he was taken in the 2nd round.
[Reply]
BossChief 08:22 PM 04-11-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
Jaylon Smith had a worse injury and he was taken in the 2nd round.
And time has shown that wasn’t a good investment on JJs part. I’d be interested to see the success stories of similar situations.

It’s also significant that Jaylon had a playing history, as well. Ojabo played 62 total snaps in college before last year.
[Reply]
Titty Meat 08:41 PM 04-11-2022
No he's a top 10 talent
[Reply]
BossChief 09:09 PM 04-11-2022
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
No he's a top 10 talent
I’m with ya. You won’t find me passing on him if he’s on the board when we pick…But I’m also a gambler that enjoys the risk involved with “big swings”.

If his rehab goes according to plan, he’s an invaluable asset in todays NFL and a great fit for our defense.
[Reply]
Couch-Potato 05:14 AM 04-12-2022
I think it's possible he'll be available at #50, hard to see him still on the board by #62, but I've seen others who feel he could fall into the 3rd now.
[Reply]
Chris Meck 06:36 AM 04-12-2022
I bet he goes in the 2nd. Too much potential.
[Reply]
chiefforlife 09:15 AM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
I bet he goes in the 2nd. Too much potential.
I agree, just to much risk to go in the first. Such high expectations for a first rounder and expected to immediately contribute. Rightfully so.

High second round seems about right. Before 50 unfortunately.

I also agree with having to double dip if we were to go after him. Which is a great idea. If we do that, we are probably one of the only teams that may consider him in the first, likely getting him if the Chiefs want to.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 09:41 AM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by staylor26:
Dayo Odeyingbo was probably an early 2nd rounder last year without his Achilles injury, and he still went 54th.

I don’t see Ojabo making it out of the top 40 picks.
It just makes too much sense for a team like Jax or even Detroit to take a flyer on him and rehab him while they rebuild.

So again, if WE don't want him, I've gotta believe there are good trade-up opportunities w/ Jacksonville for Ojabo and Seattle/Detroit for a QB. Atlanta could be in the range as well.

But if the QBs come off the board, that's fine too - will leave plenty of talent for us at 29 and 30.
[Reply]
The Franchise 09:44 AM 04-12-2022
My opinion on Ojabo has changed to the point of.....it depends on what they do with that DE position.

If they trade up in the 1st to grab one of the top 5 DEs....then I'm passing on Ojabo later on unless it's in the late 2nd or 3rd round.

If they plan on staying put at 29 or 30...and end up drafting Ojabo later...then I hope the plan is to add at least two more DEs to this roster.
[Reply]
BossChief 12:22 PM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
My opinion on Ojabo has changed to the point of.....it depends on what they do with that DE position.

If they trade up in the 1st to grab one of the top 5 DEs....then I'm passing on Ojabo later on unless it's in the late 2nd or 3rd round.

If they plan on staying put at 29 or 30...and end up drafting Ojabo later...then I hope the plan is to add at least two more DEs to this roster.
I think if you draft Ojabo, you have to operate the rest of the draft like you didn’t draft him. That’s why I typically take Thomas and Sam Williams if I draft Ojabo at the end of the first. This drafts depth at edge should provide us with at minimum 2 starting quality edge rushers and if we end up with 3, that’s a GREAT draft and that 3 headed attack would keep them all fresh throughout the season and would keep us from needing to add a edge guy in FA for big money the next 4 years.

If we come out of this draft with 3 pass rushers, a couple corners and a weapon at WR…everything else is frosting on the cake.
[Reply]
kccrow 12:54 PM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by staylor26:
Dayo Odeyingbo was probably an early 2nd rounder last year without his Achilles injury, and he still went 54th.

I don’t see Ojabo making it out of the top 40 picks.
I wish Odeyingbo was another year into this process but unfortunately, he's not. What I've seen doesn't exactly exude confidence. I saw a guy that lacked burst and didn't make much of an impact over 10 games. That's not to say he won't, but I didn't see it being there yet. You have to wonder if that's going to be worth the 54th pick. As we saw last season, you can get players that will make an immediate and highly positive impact with that pick.

The same thing will more than likely be the case with Ojabo. You're going to get nothing of substance this year and then you're going to go into '23 with somewhat of a question mark. For me, I'm not spending a round 2 pick on that. Round 3, no problem. If a team wants to spend a 2, then that's just another guy that falls to KC in my opinion. Hell, give me a next year's 1 for pick 50 for the rights to draft Ojabo, I'd be ecstatic. :-)
[Reply]
Titty Meat 02:12 PM 04-12-2022
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
It just makes too much sense for a team like Jax or even Detroit to take a flyer on him and rehab him while they rebuild.

So again, if WE don't want him, I've gotta believe there are good trade-up opportunities w/ Jacksonville for Ojabo and Seattle/Detroit for a QB. Atlanta could be in the range as well.

But if the QBs come off the board, that's fine too - will leave plenty of talent for us at 29 and 30.

Why couldn't we do the same? We aren't winning the super bowl this year. It makes the most sense to take him at 29 or 30.
[Reply]
Page 1 of 6
1 2345 > Last »
Up