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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Will Ojabo fall further than some think?
BossChief 07:16 PM 04-11-2022
David Ojabos tape last year was very impressive and we have talked endlessly about his fit here and elsewhere. We’ve talked about his ability being a top 15 pick kind of player. We’ve talked about how those guys won’t be in our range in the next decade because Mahomes will always having us in contention for a title so we will be picking at the tail end of the first every year, unless a big trade up is done.

What I’m going to attempt to do is rationalize his actual value in his present state assuming reports that it was a “clean tear” are true and that he shouldn’t miss more than a year before returning to the field. At his age and todays surgeons ability to perform these surgeries more routinely means there’s a reasonable chance he gets to close to full strength in 2023 and possibly on the field before the playoffs this season.

Pick 15 (his perceived value prior to injury) is worth 55.08 points in the Rich Hill chart. That value is based on his attributes and potential NFL upside as a high end edge rusher that would be cost controlled for 5 years as a first round pick. By losing a year due to recovery and rehab, that drops that value, but how do we asses how much it drops by? Every NFL team is trying to find out where he sits on their board with those factors involved.

Here’s where it may get rough for Ojabo:

-He’s a 1 year starter
-He was playing across from a rusher equally or more talented as him
-His game is based on explosion, bend and change of direction blended with power. The injury puts all of those attributes at risk.
-This Edge class has 10 or so pass rushers that can all start playing in their rookie seasons.
-If he’s not worth a 1st, that drops his value by 20% right there by the loss of the 5th year option.
-If he’s worth a second or later, he’s only going to be available for 3 of those years, so that further drops his value to teams as that’s 30 (or more) games he won’t suit up for the team that drafts him. Also, once he’s able to play, there’s no assurance he regains his explosiveness that made him so intriging.

Realistically, you’d have to place his current value at pick 33 (31.24 points) minus 25% (for the loss of the year for rehab) and that brings his value in draft value points down to 23.43 points. Basically the equivalent of pick 44. That might even be viewed by some as a best case scenario of his current value.

That’s figuring that the team that drafts him thinks he can make a full recovery and provide the impact we saw on tape after rehab. That’s a lot to ask and may not be rooted in objective thinking that’s required when managing the type of resources GMs are given to run NFL teams with. Whatever GM takes him will be gambling a big part of his job on that move, especially when a premium pick is used…especially if he’s taken in the first. That’s a “you better be right” kind of swing for the fences.

I don’t see mocks reflecting this drop in value as I still see him going in the first 25-30 picks in most of them.

Should we almost expect him to have a good chance to be there when we pick at 50? Is it possible he falls to the high 50s or even to our pick at 62, with all this taken into consideration? Players with injuries during the process drop significantly sometimes. I guess we will see.
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The Franchise 09:45 AM 04-14-2022
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
If the Chiefs feel confident in his medical condition, so will other teams and he'll go in the 20's. I'm not trading up for a guy coming off an Achilles injury. No way.
Ehhhh yes and no. There are some people that will just remove this dude off their board completely. I know all it takes is one...but I don't see him going in the first.
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htismaqe 09:47 AM 04-14-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
Ehhhh yes and no. There are some people that will just remove this dude off their board completely. I know all it takes is one...but I don't see him going in the first.
I wouldn't mind him as much in the 2nd but I'm not spending a 1st round pick on him.
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Toad 10:29 AM 04-14-2022
I wouldn’t trade up in the first, no. But wouldn’t be upset if they take him at 29/30.
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BossChief 01:42 PM 04-14-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
My opinion on Ojabo has changed to the point of.....it depends on what they do with that DE position.

If they trade up in the 1st to grab one of the top 5 DEs....then I'm passing on Ojabo later on unless it's in the late 2nd or 3rd round.

If they plan on staying put at 29 or 30...and end up drafting Ojabo later...then I hope the plan is to add at least two more DEs to this roster.
That’s EXACTLY what I’ve been doing in the mocks. Acting as if we didn’t even draft Ojabo. That way, if he never regains his explosion, our pass rush is still improved and if he does, we have 4 years of an elite pass rush.
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htismaqe 02:05 PM 04-14-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
That’s EXACTLY what I’ve been doing in the mocks. Acting as if we didn’t even draft Ojabo. That way, if he never regains his explosion, our pass rush is still improved and if he does, we have 4 years of an elite pass rush.
If he never regains his explosion, you completely wasted a draft pick.
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BossChief 02:21 PM 04-14-2022
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
If he never regains his explosion, you completely wasted a draft pick.
I don’t think that’s completely accurate. The idea that he will just be off the face of the earth if the Achilles strips him of his first step isn’t completely correct. Even if he never regains his elite explosiveness, he’s still going to have a good chance at developing into an average/above average player that can play LB and DE in this defense. He will just have a tough path to being as dominant as he was last year at Michigan. That still has value…albeit not as much as him at full strength or close to it.

But if he gets that explosiveness back, watch out…he can be Derrick Thomas…a pass rusher that devastates OLs and causes tons of fumbles….with a late first round investment for 5 years of cost controlled play…sign me up.
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htismaqe 02:28 PM 04-14-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
I don’t think that’s completely accurate. The idea that he will just be off the face of the earth if the Achilles strips him of his first step isn’t completely correct. Even if he never regains his elite explosiveness, he’s still going to have a good chance at developing into an average/above average player that can play LB and DE in this defense. He will just have a tough path to being as dominant as he was last year at Michigan. That still has value…albeit not as much as him at full strength or close to it.

But if he gets that explosiveness back, watch out…he can be Derrick Thomas…a pass rusher that devastates OLs and causes tons of fumbles….with a late first round investment for 5 years of cost controlled play…sign me up.
He'll never be Derrick Thomas.
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BossChief 02:36 PM 04-14-2022
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
He'll never be Derrick Thomas.
If he regains his explosiveness he can provide similar impact to a defense in terms of pass rush and forced fumbles.

Same speed
Similar build
Same “attack the throwing arm, not the body” type of approach
Same bend
Same closing ability
Same pursuit

Less kids though.
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DJ's left nut 03:59 PM 04-14-2022
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
If he never regains his explosion, you completely wasted a draft pick.
Let's say there's a 50/50 shot he gets healthy (and I think that's probably a light). And let's say that, when healthy, there was a 60% chance he was a true impact player - pretty fair for a likely top 15 pick.

So you're looking at a 30% chance he's a star? With a late 1st, aren't you looking at maybe a 50% chance that a player is merely a good, quality football player?

I mean...the numbers aren't THAT far off.

I think if you buy into a healthy Ojabo as a potential double digit sack, difference making player - you go ahead and take him at 29. Because ALL picks have risk. Ojabo just has more of it. But what you're getting by taking on that risk is a lot more ceiling than you'd typically find in a player available where we're drafting.

And with an additional 1st and 2nd, we can protect ourselves a bit as well via a higher floor player who would still be an ideal complement to Ojabo long term should Ojabo get healthy.

He remains pretty high on my board.
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BossChief 04:31 PM 04-14-2022
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Let's say there's a 50/50 shot he gets healthy (and I think that's probably a light). And let's say that, when healthy, there was a 60% chance he was a true impact player - pretty fair for a likely top 15 pick.

So you're looking at a 30% chance he's a star? With a late 1st, aren't you looking at maybe a 50% chance that a player is merely a good, quality football player?

I mean...the numbers aren't THAT far off.

I think if you buy into a healthy Ojabo as a potential double digit sack, difference making player - you go ahead and take him at 29. Because ALL picks have risk. Ojabo just has more of it. But what you're getting by taking on that risk is a lot more ceiling than you'd typically find in a player available where we're drafting.

And with an additional 1st and 2nd, we can protect ourselves a bit as well via a higher floor player who would still be an ideal complement to Ojabo long term should Ojabo get healthy.

He remains pretty high on my board.
Exactly
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farmerchief 03:37 PM 04-15-2022
3rd round, maybe, coming back from the injury , there’s plenty of healthy talent that’s not far behind him in ability, just my opinion.
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FRCDFED 08:01 PM 04-17-2022
I wouldn't touch him with a draft pick. It's rare for anyone to regain their explosion after tearing an Achilles. If ever..
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La0laEsMia 03:16 PM 04-18-2022
I wouldn't take him in the 1st.

He isn't even going to see the field until year 2, which is going to be a rehab/learning year. So realistically year 3 is when you get any return on him. Plus....achilles. Just a bit different than say an ACL, especially for a player with his skillset. Just too many risks to take someone like that in the 1st.
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BossChief 04:04 PM 04-18-2022
Originally Posted by La0laEsMia:
I wouldn't take him in the 1st.

He isn't even going to see the field until year 2, which is going to be a rehab/learning year. So realistically year 3 is when you get any return on him. Plus....achilles. Just a bit different than say an ACL, especially for a player with his skillset. Just too many risks to take someone like that in the 1st.
I haven’t heard about them bribing him in for a visit, which you think would be required before assessing his rehab and understanding if concepts interviews.
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kcbubb 09:56 PM 04-24-2022
This is interesting to me. Ojabo was probably around 15 before the injury and now he drops to the third with todays medical technology? Any other case studies besides Dago odeybingo and cam ackers? Cam certainly got his explosiveness back.
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