So, I almost made it to December before doing one of these. I'm a total degenerate, I know. But the discussion today about Orlando Brown got me thinking about it. So here's my first mock of the cycle, with the idea that the Chiefs DO extend Orlando Brown, Jr. long-term while also working out a long-term extension for Chris Jones.
With that in mind, we're off - and just looking for the best value at each pick, without a screaming need anywhere but DE.
I ran this mock on PFN. I think their board is off a bit on some of these guys, but all of them are this far out. I ran it with the Chiefs at pick #30, though I think they'll be at #31 when all is said and done.
2.35 (from Rams, with Rams 2024 2nd round pick, for #30 and #128). The Rams come to me with an offer I can't refuse, picking up what I expect to be a top 40 pick in 2024 for a measly extra 4th.
With this pick, I go BPA. The best DE available is Andre Carter II, and this seems early for him. So I take WR Rashee Rice, SMU. Rice is a large, speedy WR who can really do everything. More on this in the post-draft section at the bottom.
2.54 (from Seahawks, for #92 and CHIEFS 2024 2nd). DE Andre Carter II, Army. But I'm not down with Andre Carter. He's an athletic nightmare at DE, with size and speed and versatility. It's a long-term project, but he should be able to contribute as a pass-rush down guy as a rookie.
2.62 DT Mazi Smith, Michigan. I have no clue if this is even a reasonable option. It seems like Smith will go much higher, but it is hard to say for sure. I love Smith's athleticism and think his best football is ahead of him, with the potential to be an actual 3-down nightmare paired next to Jones.
4.130 T Carter Warren, Pitt. And then I wait. In the 4th, I'm able to add a tackle with the athleticism and physical ability to be a strong RT or at least a good swing tackle.
5.162 S Jammie Robinson, Florida State Another guy whose stock I've seen all over the place. Just looking for S depth here, with a versatile S who can play deep and has speed and tackling ability.
6.192 S/LB Jaylon Carlies, Missouri Carlies is a project pick, a really athletic and large S who projects to the NFL as a WLB for me. He has the frame to add 10-15 pounds without losing the speed that would make him a weapon at OLB.
7.210 RB Roschon Johnson, Texas This is a depth RB, but one who could be a nice complement to Pacheco long-term in KC. He's been effective as Bijan Robinson's backup at UT and has power, some long speed, and can catch the ball.
7.226 DE Ali Gaye, LSU This seems like an extreme value pick, but if not Gaye, this could be another DE/situational rusher.
And that's it. With this draft in the books, I'd probably be moving on from one of Marquez Valdes-Scantling or maybe even Smith-Schuster. I'd want to have a veteran DT in front of Smith and want to add a Carlos Dunlap type at DE to pair with Danna, Karlaftis, and Carter.
In reality, even with these picks, I'm probably using those first two picks on my DT and DE instead of being able to get one at 62.
Anyway, thoughts on these guys?
Question 1: The board likes Rashee Rice. If the Chiefs were to get in position to draft him, how do the veterans at the position shake out? Roll with Rice, Toney, and Moore? Keep 2 of Hardman, Smith-Schuster, Valdes-Scantling?
Question 2: Do we like Carter Warren as a RT?
Question 3: Has Gaye's stock really fallen that much? And would he even come to the draft if it has? [Reply]
First of all, thanks for the thought you put into this.
Second, I think Mazi Smith's going to fall more than that, actually, although it's really ridiculous to predict that this early. I also don't know how good of a fit he is for the Spags D. He is a great prospect, though.
I don't like your DE position, even with a Dunlap-type, unless Karlaftis explodes next year (which he might). I would have gone hard at DE in the 1st round.
The WR position needs to stay stocked for Mahomes, but it's a lot closer to that than people think. MVS, Toney, Moore, I assume the Chiefs bring back one of Watson or Bryan Edwards, they get to test out Justyn Ross some. The Chiefs keep their TE room packed next year and they'll add talent at RB in the passing game. This is all what they have, right now, in the bag.
And that's really the difficulty with the Brown/Jones/JuJu conundrum. Because JuJu completes that WR room, but if you're extending both Jones and Brown, which you do in the OP, than extending JuJu to the contract he's worth is extremely difficult, and maybe impossible.
That's why I think the Chiefs' best course of action is to extend JuJu, and extend either Brown or Jones for 2023, and do the dance with the other in 2024. (Or tag/trade Brown in 2024.) Brown and Jones combined are going to be over $50m/year, so I think you have to stagger signing them, which is what the Chiefs were trying to do this past offseason, because they felt the Jones extension coming down the mountain.
I do like Carter Warren as a RT. I don't know if he supplants Wylie/Niang on Week 1. But I like him as a longterm RT who can start by year 2. It's possible he starts by the end of Year 1, honestly. You give Andy Heck length, size, and athleticism, and so long as the guy isn't completely raw, this team can make that guy work. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Several thoughts.
First of all, thanks for the thought you put into this.
Second, I think Mazi Smith's going to fall more than that, actually, although it's really ridiculous to predict that this early. I also don't know how good of a fit he is for the Spags D. He is a great prospect, though.
I don't like your DE position, even with a Dunlap-type, unless Karlaftis explodes next year (which he might). I would have gone hard at DE in the 1st round.
The WR position needs to stay stocked for Mahomes, but it's a lot closer to that than people think. MVS, Toney, Moore, I assume the Chiefs bring back one of Watson or Bryan Edwards, they get to test out Justyn Ross some. The Chiefs keep their TE room packed next year and they'll add talent at RB in the passing game. This is all what they have, right now, in the bag.
And that's really the difficulty with the Brown/Jones/JuJu conundrum. Because JuJu completes that WR room, but if you're extending both Jones and Brown, which you do in the OP, than extending JuJu to the contract he's worth is extremely difficult, and maybe impossible.
That's why I think the Chiefs' best course of action is to extend JuJu, and extend either Brown or Jones for 2023, and do the dance with the other in 2024. (Or tag/trade Brown in 2024.) Brown and Jones combined are going to be over $50m/year, so I think you have to stagger signing them, which is what the Chiefs were trying to do this past offseason, because they felt the Jones extension coming down the mountain.
I do like Carter Warren as a RT. I don't know if he supplants Wylie/Niang on Week 1. But I like him as a longterm RT who can start by year 2. It's possible he starts by the end of Year 1, honestly. You give Andy Heck length, size, and athleticism, and so long as the guy isn't completely raw, this team can make that guy work.
Smith is tough to put a finger on. I know he's a big plugger sort, but he's SO athletic and SO impossible to move 1x1, I think he's an exception. He's going to test out similar to Jordan Davis, I think. The thought of plugging him in next to Chris Jones long-term makes me giddy.
And when I look at the DEs that are going to be there at 31, I just don't see a huge value that you can plug in and supplant Danna/Karlaftis day 1. So, if going for developmental sorts, I didn't see the value at #30 or #35. You're picking an imperfect guy there.
Rice's combination of size, speed, explosiveness, and versatility was just too much to pass up at this point. Maybe it leaves the DE a little more of a question mark in 2023, but short of someone like Verse dropping, I don't think that's avoidable. Rookie WR is a tough fit for Reid, but Rice has enough physical ability to contribute early in packages while getting up to speed.
Re: Brown and Jones, you'd have to stagger the cap hits and have one of them be a lower hit for 2023 to make that work. If you're keeping both, it means you're likely NOT keeping Smith-Schuster, so I thought that reinforced the importance of improving the WR room.
I skew toward upside, for sure. The ultimate upside of Rice, and Carter, and Smith is all legit top 5 at their position, IMO. Lot more bust potential with them, though... [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
I think that's fair.
I'd approach it differently, but I don't think you're out of line.
Edit: You need to nail that veteran addition at DE, though. Maybe they just shrug and bring back Dunlap.
I mean, if you could find a way to add both Carter and Gaye (and if you don't believe he's a 7th, swap him for one of those safety picks) I think you're adding a lengthy, speedy outside rusher that the Chiefs just currently do not have.
Run downs:
Danna/Saunders or Smith/Jones/Karlaftis
I think that group holds up at least as well as this year's group, because all you're really doing is swapping Danna for Clark and potentially upgrading at DT in a big way.
Pass downs:
Carter or Gaye/Jones/Danna/Karlaftis
That's a more difficult group to contend with, IMO, than this year's.
You'd want the vet to be someone like Dunlap, for sure. And I think a reunion makes sense to me. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
I mean, if you could find a way to add both Carter and Gaye (and if you don't believe he's a 7th, swap him for one of those safety picks) I think you're adding a lengthy, speedy outside rusher that the Chiefs just currently do not have.
Run downs:
Danna/Saunders or Smith/Jones/Karlaftis
I think that group holds up at least as well as this year's group, because all you're really doing is swapping Danna for Clark and potentially upgrading at DT in a big way.
Pass downs:
Carter or Gaye/Jones/Danna/Karlaftis
That's a more difficult group to contend with, IMO, than this year's.
You'd want the vet to be someone like Dunlap, for sure. And I think a reunion makes sense to me.
I'll be honest, I think PFN is waaaay too generous and off quite a bit, I mean it's let me indulge in complete fantasy picks like Nolan Smith at 30 or even Skoronski, mad stuff. I'm like you on Carter, I'm not sure I'm as high on him as others, but partly as it's just not the type of DE we need or I'm after. That said, I'd also be amazed if he makes it to that second pick - PFN seem to let me get him at 60 odd. I like Rice but not as a 1st rounder, and I reckon he's gone before our second pick.
On Smith, I dunno. I like him but not sure there. I still feel like a run stuffer with a little bit of pass rush potential MIGHT be available in the 3rd. I'd also probably forego any of the pass rush aspect and just prioritise a giant lump if it means I can get some earlier talent at DE, OT and WR. I think someone like Coburn might be available later.
As an indication of PFN's generosity it let me take the following.
36. Anton Harrison (T)
62. Andre Carter (DE)
71. Lukas Van Ness (DE)
94. Trey Palmer (WR)
130. Luke Musgrave (TE)
162. Keondre Coburn (DT)
192. Roschon Johnson (RB)
210. Byron Young (DE)
226. Karl Brooks (DE/DT)
Don't think it was even a particularly good collection of picks but way higher than the consensus I'd imagine. That would be RT improved immediately with a possible future fix of LT, more talent at WR, a physically elite but raw TE (a luxury basically) and about a million ways to improve the DL and reduce costs. I'd be confident 1 or 2 are immediate upgrades on what we have there. Jettison Kaindoh, Herring, Nnadi etc and there's plenty of roster space. [Reply]
I've definitely continued to slide Rashee Rice up the board myself. I think he's pretty much a prototype for this offense. 1st round? Potentially.
Mazi Smith is following the lead of Frank Clark apparently. Went and got himself a felony charge for carrying a concealed weapon without a permit. We'll have to see how that shakes out. Smith is a good solid NT but I'd never classify him as having any sort of pass rush potential whatsoever. Not enough plays behind the LOS either. Keeanu Benton is a far better prospect. Of course, Benton has drifted up boards while Mazi really hasn't.
I like Carter Warren. I've labeled him as underrated. I think he's going to be one of those "surprise" solid guys.
I like Andre Carter a lot more coming into this year than I do right now. He continues to slip for me. I think I still like him in the 2nd round, maybe 3rd round, but he's going to need some work.
I think the question with Ali Gaye is "was his stock ever actually that high?" I don't think so, to be honest. He came in highly touted as a JUCO transfer and got what I'd call an undeserving 2nd team All-SEC in 2020. He got hurt in 21. He really hasn't been any different this year from 2020 and that hasn't been a ton of play on the QB. I dunno, it just seems he's been talked about a lot for his potential and not enough about his results. If I'm grading the player for what he is, it's probably somewhere in that 5th round range because he still does have a great athletic profile that you hope you might be able to turn on. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I've definitely continued to slide Rashee Rice up the board myself. I think he's pretty much a prototype for this offense. 1st round? Potentially.
Mazi Smith is following the lead of Frank Clark apparently. Went and got himself a felony charge for carrying a concealed weapon without a permit. We'll have to see how that shakes out. Smith is a good solid NT but I'd never classify him as having any sort of pass rush potential whatsoever. Not enough plays behind the LOS either. Keeanu Benton is a far better prospect. Of course, Benton has drifted up boards while Mazi really hasn't.
I like Carter Warren. I've labeled him as underrated. I think he's going to be one of those "surprise" solid guys.
I like Andre Carter a lot more coming into this year than I do right now. He continues to slip for me. I think I still like him in the 2nd round, maybe 3rd round, but he's going to need some work.
I think the question with Ali Gaye is "was his stock ever actually that high?" I don't think so, to be honest. He came in highly touted as a JUCO transfer and got what I'd call an undeserving 2nd team All-SEC in 2020. He got hurt in 21. He really hasn't been any different this year from 2020 and that hasn't been a ton of play on the QB. I dunno, it just seems he's been talked about a lot for his potential and not enough about his results. If I'm grading the player for what he is, it's probably somewhere in that 5th round range because he still does have a great athletic profile that you hope you might be able to turn on.
Smith is such an athletic freak, I could see that pressure coming on as time goes on. And if he doesn't, I think he's going to be such a great run plugger, it's OK if he doesn't. But hey. Maybe the weapons thing pushes him down some boards and you get a 3rd or 4th round bargain.
Re: Carter, I think all the thing I liked about him before the year are still present. Size, twitch, lateral agility, speed, length. He just was 2x and 3x teamed all year.
Re: Gaye, yeah, maybe he's forever a lump of clay that just isn't really moldable. But on a Day 3 pick, that's a great flyer to take... [Reply]