The problem with that, as it has been all year, is that you're basically designing a defense to keep him in the pocket. As Colinsworth said last weekend, the idea that Mahomes doesn't operate well in the pocket is a myth. You're inviting him to pick apart your defense.

The Patriots don't have Ford, Houston, and Jones. A 4-man rush isn't going to get it done. They're going to have to blitz and try to make him uncomfortable, which means he's going to be scrambling a lot. If they try to use a CB, somebody isn't covered well enough.

Of course, we're both talking about hypotheticals. As you can see from the discussion we're having, you really can't stop Patrick Mahomes. :-)
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Sure, if the Pats can get consistent pressure with a 4-man front, they're going to win. Same goes for us.
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Gotta consider the combination of 'want to' and 'able to'.

Look - the Pats can get all gung-ho about 'taking away' Tyreek Hill all they want, but that's gonna be a Pyrrhic victory for them.

JC Jackson is a revelation and a hell of a find for them. But y'know, there's a lot of Charvarious Ward in him as well and if you asked me if I'd be comfortable telling Ward - "okay, Tyreek Hill is yours, go get 'em"...uh, no.

And so that leaves them sending Gilmore out there to cover him and that's where the Pyrrhic element comes into play. If they really want to take Gilmore, who's really capable of shutting down his entire side if they use him that way, and have him wear himself slick chasing Tyreek Hill all over the field --- okay. Have fun with that. But the jet actions, long crossers and downfield routes are going to take a lot of piss of out Gilmore. When you have some of the league's top corners talking about just not being able to keep their legs under them trying to shadow that guy, that means something.

I think BB will understand that the cost of trying to shut down Hill will just be too great. Instead he needs to bank on the fact that the biggest homerun plays to Hill are also the hardest ones to simply execute well. Play him as you would most other WRs and hope that Mahomes just misses.

Because if you throw a shitload of capital at trying to stop Hill, you're ceding far easier throws to Watkins and Kelce. Hell, Williams out of the backfield could go crazy. And all of those throws will be simple pitches and catches for 8 yards here, 14 yards there. Low degree of difficulty, high margin for error throws that will bleed them out.

If I'm the Patriots I think I do the opposite of what everyone else is saying - I MAKE them beat me with big plays and hope they can't. I look to shut down the underneath routes to Watkins and Kelce that Mahomes can make (literally) with his eyes closed. I go out there and hope that he simply misses on a few of those, get them behind the sticks, gets them punting and the offense can answer to the tune of a 10-14 point lead that gets that crowd real nervous, real fast.

If the Patriots win this game it will be because the Chiefs didn't execute at their best. If both teams play A games, the Chiefs will win it. So they have to operate under the assumption that the way to force a B game will be a combination of higher level throws and unforced errors.
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This is exactly how my thinking has evolved this week. Mahomes has been missing Hill lately. I think they gamble that he continues that -- and in a big game, if he misses Hill early, he might become a bit frustrated and miss him more, or try to go back to him too often looking for redemption.

But if Mahomes and Hill are clicking ... lights out.
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I imagine they will try and take Hill and Kelce away. If anyone can take both of them away, it is probably Belichick. Now, will it work, idk but that is what I imagine they will do along with 0 coverage again. But since he played that card week 6, it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't do it as often but goes to it at times.
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Exactly.

Look - if the Chiefs play well, the Patriots ain't winning. They just aren't. It's a testament to how ungodly good of a coach Bill Belichick is that I'm still nervous. The chiefs are as good or better at every meaningful personnel group if Berry can get on the field. The Pats have an edge at ILB but if you just refer to 'DL' and 'LB', I'd take our group on both fronts. The secondaries are similarly mediocre with the Patriots having both the best and worst players in that group, IMO and the Chiefs having a little more depth.

Our WRs absolutely smoke theirs and our TE is better than theirs. I like our OL just a little more though I will acknowledge that the Patriots are much like the Colts - their whole is better than its parts. I like their RBs better than ours but really, that's just how they've been utilized more than anything. Williams and White are effectively the exact same player and Michel, while probably a little better than Ware, is going to be neutralized somewhat by the silent snap count impacting the OL's get-off.

The Chiefs are BETTER than the Patriots. They just are. So if the Patriots try to put together a gameplan that says "well we're just going to go out there and whup 'em" - they're doing it wrong. They need to do some triage here and say "well hell, let's hope that the rotting leg here doesn't kill the patient and we'll work on everything else..."

Dammit I wish Bill Belichick wasn't their coach...
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It's how they won the first matchup. Mahomes was off and missed wide open throws for easy scores.
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Yeah, you could tell he was jacked for the occasion. Don't think that happens this time but it will probably take him a drive or two to really get a feel for BB defense.
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Take away the middle of the field and force plays along the sidelines?
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I feel like Damien Williams might be a big part of this game. I foresee Bill doubling Kelce and playing cover 2/cover 3 to take away the big play. I think there will be a lot
Of eyes on those guys.

And when that happens I think Andy will take advantage of it by disguising and running plays like this:

Damien Williams is left open and gains 32 for the @Chiefs! #ChiefsKingdom

📺: @nflnetwork + @NFLonFOX
📱+💻: https://t.co/DJUityQHC9 pic.twitter.com/IckwVx34JA

— NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2018

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Their mojo?


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Their mojo?


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#Chiefs Tyreek Hill in answering question about Belichick trying to take away the best player on the other team: "I don't consider myself the best player on this team."

— Tom Leyden (@TomLeyden) January 18, 2019

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I feel like if they try to double/bracket Kelce AND play zone around him, they're gonna leave themselves some serious gaps in their zones. That's just an impossibly difficult ask of a secondary to fold those targeted brackets into a broader zone concept.

It makes for a ton of switches, etc... that few defenses are able to execute well time and time again. With this offense, a blown coverage is pretty much a gimme first down. Sure, it's the safest way to neutralize Kelce and still attempt to avoid the big plays out wide, but the execution has to be pristine and if it isn't, the result is an easy 20+ yard gain.

The run game is going to be a lot of 3-wide with 11 personnel and Williams on inside zones, etc... We're not going to be able to beat them with power running but Williams has shown such good shiftiness and first step quickness that if you can get the D a little spread out, I think you can use him well between the hashes.

Which is another reason that I think BB isn't going to commit hard to stopping Hill. The more he does that, the more he opens himself up to those inside delayed handoffs and an easy 5-6 yards/pop.

I think BB knows he can't give us easy money, even if it's only a nickel or a dime at a time. He has to make this team earn it through execution and he'll do that by forcing Mahomes to make the harder throws outside and Hill (or Watkins) to make those tougher contested catches downfield.
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Tyreek is so good at interviews and deflecting credit.
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