Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell of the public health agency said a rapid slowdown in the spread of the virus indicated very strongly that Sweden had reached relatively widespread immunity.
“The epidemic is now being slowed down, in a way that I think few of us would have believed a week or so ago,” he told a news conference.
Daily COVID-19 death rates as well as the number of infected in intensive care have been slowing gradually since April, with seven new deaths and no new ICU admissions reported by the health agency.
“It really is yet another sign that the Swedish strategy is working,” Tegnell said. It is possible to slow contagion fast with the measures we are taking in Sweden.” [Reply]
Their death rates are super high, for sure. But i also looked into how they're coding deaths. Anyone who dies within 30 days of a covid positive test is a covid death. That seems weird to me. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Yeah, Sweden looks like it's out the back end.
Their death rates are super high, for sure. But i also looked into how they're coding deaths. Anyone who dies within 30 days of a covid positive test is a covid death. That seems weird to me.
I'm so confused. It's Tuesday so is Sweden good today or bad today? [Reply]
There is some political mumb-jumbo at the end of the linked article I left out of my post s
Originally Posted by :
Flaw in Manufacturer’s Testing System For Coronavirus Used by Labs Across the US Causing False Positives
A flaw in a manufacturer’s Coronavirus testing system used by labs across the US are causing false positives.
Department of Public Health scientists in Connecticut discovered the flaw in the testing system manufactured by Thermo Fisher Scientific.
According to DPH scientists, the affected patients were tested between July 15 to July 17 and out of a total of 144 ‘positive’ tests, 90 were false positives!
This is just the tip of the iceberg.
The Associated Press reported:
Scientists at Connecticut’s public health laboratory say they’ve discovered a flaw in a manufacturer’s testing system for the coronavirus that’s used by labs around the country. So far, it’s resulted in 90 people – mostly residents of Connecticut nursing homes and assisted living facilities – recently receiving false positive tests.
State public health officials are now reviewing whether nursing home residents who received false positive tests were grouped with other residents with accurate positive tests, given the state’s recommendation to cohort nursing home residents who test positive for COVID-19.
“We don’t know that yet,” said Josh Geballe, Gov. Ned Lamont’s chief operating officer, noting that a team from the state’s Department of Public Health has been reaching out to every clinician responsible for those individuals, as well as the facilities where they live, and compiling data on the situation.
Meanwhile, Dr. Deidre S. Gifford, the state’s acting public health commissioner, said her agency is also reaching out to labs throughout the state to see how many of them use the testing platform manufactured by Thermo Fisher Scientific.
I don't think it was a ever a good or bad they just did it different and we might not know for years still whether they their blueprint was the best option, in the end all the strategies could end up being a wash once everything is factored in long term. It is nice to see positive news coming out in regards to immunity though , I think we have a long way to go still but it is nice to be at least getting a glimpse of the finish line. [Reply]
Chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell of the public health agency said a rapid slowdown in the spread of the virus indicated very strongly that Sweden had reached relatively widespread immunity.
“The epidemic is now being slowed down, in a way that I think few of us would have believed a week or so ago,” he told a news conference.
Daily COVID-19 death rates as well as the number of infected in intensive care have been slowing gradually since April, with seven new deaths and no new ICU admissions reported by the health agency.
“It really is yet another sign that the Swedish strategy is working,” Tegnell said. It is possible to slow contagion fast with the measures we are taking in Sweden.”
I feel like I'm losing my mind and people are just living in an alternate fantasyland. Norway has had a handful of deaths, but haven't had more than 1 death in a day in almost a month.
Finland literally hasn't had a death in almost a month. Sweden is totally going the right direction but they killed 10+ times as many people as their neighbors to do it. [Reply]
The "vodka shot" theory as I am choosing to call it where if you think of covid as shots of vodka and how if you take six shots at once you're more likely to be really screwed seems to have growing support.
The idea is that the initial intake amount matters as to how bad your symptoms are.
If this is the case it seems that wearing a mask actually DOES help you if you still get it.
Originally Posted by :
And sort of putting it all together, it really is that the less virus that you get in, the less sick you're likely to be. So not only do masks protect you - and we've seen from getting the virus and altogether. And that's been seen in hamster studies. That's been seen in a health care worker study that was just published last week in JAMA. But if you do get the virus in, you get very little in. And you're likely to get what's called an asymptomatic infection or not have any symptoms at all and - or a very mild infection. So it really is based on the fact that we've known for many years now - probably a hundred - that the more virus you get into your system, the more likely you are to get sick. And these masks protect you.
Originally Posted by tk13:
I feel like I'm losing my mind and people are just living in an alternate fantasyland. Norway has had a handful of deaths, but haven't had more than 1 death in a day in almost a month.
Finland literally hasn't had a death in almost a month. Sweden is totally going the right direction but they killed 10+ times as many people as their neighbors to do it.
It's the long game for one. Those places didn't have those deaths, but now they've got to be super careful in how they open up, they likely can't reopen their tourist areas from other countries etc.
Sweden also as i said earlier, is much more meticulous in how they count deaths with COvid.
So it's more with Sweden "yeah, we had a really high death rate early, now it'll likely normalize and those other countries will trickle along and could end up getting close to us in the end". [Reply]
Originally Posted by Kiimosabi:
The "vodka shot" theory as I am choosing to call it where if you think of covid as shots of vodka and how if you take six shots at once you're more likely to be really screwed seems to have growing support.
The idea is that the initial intake amount matters as to how bad your symptoms are.
If this is the case it seems that wearing a mask actually DOES help you if you still get it.
If you still get immunity from the smaller viral loads then opening things up with masks would allow people to be somewhat exposed at reduced risk of getting severe outcomes .
Bu we have also seem people exposed to what you think would similar viral loads getting completely different outcomes. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
It's the long game for one. Those places didn't have those deaths, but now they've got to be super careful in how they open up, they likely can't reopen their tourist areas from other countries etc.
Sweden also as i said earlier, is much more meticulous in how they count deaths with COvid.
So it's more with Sweden "yeah, we had a really high death rate early, now it'll likely normalize and those other countries will trickle along and could end up getting close to us in the end".
With the improvements in how covid is treated it could still end up having a better outcome overall by pushing those cases down the road but who knows, I think Finland and Norway are more open than Sweden right now but I am not sure by how much what their policies are exactly with masks etc. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Monticore:
I don't think it was a ever a good or bad they just did it different and we might not know for years still whether they their blueprint was the best option, in the end all the strategies could end up being a wash once everything is factored in long term. It is nice to see positive news coming out in regards to immunity though , I think we have a long way to go still but it is nice to be at least getting a glimpse of the finish line.
This is how I see it too. Compared to their neighbors it’s impossible to say they did it right in my opinion, but given the way the virus rolled through Italy and New York and now Sweden before falling off seems to be another data point to show immunity thresholds may be far below the 60% threshold. Looks like Texas and Arizona might be following the same trajectory. Gives me hope that herd immunity is possible with some mitigation (wearing masks, social distancing, etc) at 10-20% infection rate. [Reply]
