So, Dell decided to enter the draft. He's about 5'9" 155.
I mean, the guy's a bean. He's also in the conversation for the best WR in the Big 12. But that's college.
So, where would you take the chance drafting the kid or would you?
It's not like we haven't seen small players, especially short and light. Trindon Holliday, Jakeem Grant, Tommylee Lewis, etc. But most are shorter than Dell and at least 10 pounds heavier to boot. Definitely not as stringy. Of course, none of them were ever much of anything other than decent return specialists.
Most of them were also UDFAs.
I have a hard time figuring a guy like this out. He has obvious skills and, of course, speed. He just looks like he'll snap.
He wouldn't give me confidence as a #3 slot where he'd need to operate in the land of linebackers and strong safeties across the middle.
Is he a guy you could see starting as a Z?
Or, is he stuck in that realm of 4th receive in 4 receiver sets and a return specialist? If he's that, then it's no earlier than the 6th. [Reply]
He certainly tracks the ball down the field better than a lot of guys that size do.
I don't think you want him doing much over the middle of the field, but I could see Reid finding a way to use a guy like that (Hardman replacement). [Reply]
The production is insane for Dell but obviously the quality of defenses that Houston saw all season long was pretty weak. Too many examples of undersized guys with phenomenal college tape that can't quite hack it in the NFL. As you mentioned, I don't see Dell being anything more than a backup receiver or 4th man in coming out of college, I think if he wants to have a chance at a long career in the NFL, he'll have to convert to a fulltime slot receiver. He doesn't have the elite speed necessary to force him onto the field at all times, his route running especially from the slot isn't elite either ala Renfrow or more recently Phillips from UCLA.
Right now all that Dell is a guy who has a knack of getting open, that's valuable but the competition is going to get a lot harder. I think you nailed it, 5th-7th round draft pick. He needs time to marinate, expand his route tree and understand solely the slot position. In the meanwhile he can return punts, but at least his upside and playmaking ability is higher than most NFL backups. [Reply]
I think he'll go earlier than you think. People are less scared of these separators that are rake thin. Look at someone like Tutu Atwell, went miles earlier than he should. I bet he goes within the first 3 rounds. [Reply]
I want to know how fast he is. Pure on field speed.
The truth of the matter is, this team entering next year is losing Mecole Hardman in all likelihood. Someone will absolutely play him 80% of their snaps, rather than the 50% we play him, and they'll pay him accordingly.
With him out, this team is lacking for elite speed. MVS is all long-speed with no quickness. Toney gets you some of the way there. And the RB room has talent but absolutely no speed at all.
Reid is going to want to jack up the speed of this offense. [Reply]
Originally Posted by JPH83:
I think he'll go earlier than you think. People are less scared of these separators that are rake thin. Look at someone like Tutu Atwell, went miles earlier than he should. I bet he goes within the first 3 rounds.
Atwell didn't pop into my brain when I wrote this but he's an identical comparison. Thanks for that.
So, we look at Atwell so far in the pros and he got injured in Week 8 in 2021 and was used only as a returner. He has 16 receptions in 2022 for 271 yards.
ROI on a 2nd round pick (57) has not been good. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
I want to know how fast he is. Pure on field speed.
The truth of the matter is, this team entering next year is losing Mecole Hardman in all likelihood. Someone will absolutely play him 80% of their snaps, rather than the 50% we play him, and they'll pay him accordingly.
With him out, this team is lacking for elite speed. MVS is all long-speed with no quickness. Toney gets you some of the way there. And the RB room has talent but absolutely no speed at all.
Reid is going to want to jack up the speed of this offense.
I'm 1000% confident Skyy Moore was selected to marinate this year and replace Mecole. [Reply]
Tutu is the perfect comparison. The Rams definitely reached on Tutu but Atwell also apparently ran a 4.32 40 time. I think Dell is a better pure receiver but Atwell has better elite characteristics (at least on paper). I don't think Dell has that top gear. Teams definitely seem to value the "gadget and go" type of players which aren't easy to come by but you have to take in consideration how thin he is. We've already seen it with Atwell with the season ending shoulder surgery last year, I just don't know how you can expect a guy weighing maybe 160 lbs to hold up with decent usage.
I wouldn't be comfortable with spending any more than a 5th. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Possible! But he's not Mecole.
1. He's not a gadget player, he's a legit receiver.
2. He doesn't have Mecole's elite speed.
Reid has had elite speed gadget guys ever since he's been here.
2013 was his first year, and they had Dexter McCluster, but you'll remember they traded for AJ Jenkins
2014-15 De'Anthony Thomas
2016-17 Tyreek Hill
2018-22 Mecole Hardman
He likes having full-time elite speed gadget guys. If Dell fits that mold, he's an extremely high fit.
I think Toney is a speedy, ultra-shifty gadget guy when you need a gadget guy. Maybe they work Toney and Moore as interchangeable inside/outside pieces depending on what is presented and the play they want to run? I'm throwing darts here, but I don't think they "need" to get a replacement for Hardman. I think the replacements are in the house.
I'm mostly throwing shit at the wall with Dell out of curiosity over where everyone thinks he'll go in the draft, if anyone thinks he can play as an every-down receiver, or if he's probably going to be a guy that functions in a more limited role and returner with little regard to his exact fit in KC. Albeit, his fit would probably be more as you outlined in my opinion.
My personal opinion on WR is that you look to replace JuJu or you look to eventually replace MVS with a draft pick. I think that entails a bigger WR and preferably one with speed but I don't think you need a 4.30 guy.
If I were looking to replace Hardman directly, I'd probably be looking at a guy like Rakim Jarrett. He's about the same size and speed as Hardman. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Atwell didn't pop into my brain when I wrote this but he's an identical comparison. Thanks for that.
So, we look at Atwell so far in the pros and he got injured in Week 8 in 2021 and was used only as a returner. He has 16 receptions in 2022 for 271 yards.
ROI on a 2nd round pick (57) has not been good.
Yeah I didn't like Atwell at that pick at all. Maybe these things are cyclical. Felt like there were a couple of drafts where teams turned a blind eye to weight when there was undeniable production. Worked with the Slim Reaper in Philly, but Atwell, not so much. Maybe we'll see teams move away again and he will drop, I dunno. I think these guys need to be exceptional, and like Smith showing a lot more in traffic and against press for me to be comfortable pulling the trigger before the 3rd.