Buffalo Bills (12-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-5)
Line: Chiefs by 2.5. Total: 55.
Sunday, Jan. 10, 4:40 PM
BUFFALO OFFENSE:
Josh Allen played a perfect game last week against Bill Belichick, of all defensive coaches. He misfired just four times and threw five touchdowns. The Bills scored a touchdown every single time they had the football, save for the final drive that featured kneeldowns.
Allen went nuts against the Chiefs earlier in the year as well, throwing for 315 yards and three touchdowns and also rushing for 59 yards and another score. Kansas City had no answer for him, losing 38-20. However, that Chiefs defense was not the same as the current unit. They added some pass rushers through injury changes and an acquisition, which allowed them to move Chris Jones into the interior. Jones didn't even play in the loss to Buffalo, as he, Willie Gay and Charvarius Ward were some of the key defenders who were sidelined.
The Chiefs will be able to apply some pressure on Allen, so I would not expect a touchdown drive on every possession once again. However, consider two other things: One, unless Allen decides to mimic Kyler Murray and aspire to play like Drew Bledsoe, he'll be able to dance circles around the Kansas City defenders. Two, Devin Singletary has evolved into a more capable back. The Bills didn't have much of a running game in that earlier matchup, so Singletary could thrive against the Chiefs' mediocre rush defense.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes did not perform well in that 38-20 defeat. He threw for 272 yards, but it took him 54 attempts and garbage time to get there. The Bills have an exceptional pass defense, and only one quarterback, Tom Brady, has had success against it this year.
However, Buffalo's defense has changed since the early stages of the regular season. Tre'Davious White is not available due to injury, and he was certainly missed in the loss to the Buccaneers. Mahomes should be able to exploit this matchup, so I expect him to perform better than he did in the first meeting.
The Bills are at their weakest when it comes to stopping the run. The Patriots didn't get a chance to take advantage of this last weekend because of Buffalo's quick, early lead. The Chiefs might be able to succeed at rushing the ball with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, Jerrick McKinnon, Derrick Gore, or whichever back they decide to feature in this contest.
RECAP: If Allen plays like he did against the Patriots, the Bills will not lose in the playoffs. How often, however, does a team play a perfect game and then regress to the mean the following week? I'll be shocked if Buffalo scores a touchdown on every single possession once again.
I'll also be surprised if the Chiefs play as poorly as they did against Buffalo back in Week 5. The Chiefs' Jones-less defense was miserable back then, but has made some serious upgrades. They can generate good pressure on the quarterback, which will make it difficult for Allen to be as successful as he was in that contest. Meanwhile, the Bills won't have White in the rematch, which seems significant against Mahomes.
Given that the Bills struggled to put away the Falcons and Jets down the stretch in the regular season, I have to believe that if there were an advance spread, it would have been Kansas City -3 or perhaps even -3.5. However, because of Buffalo's perfect game, this line is now on the other side of three.
It's a shame that we lost our line value because I like the Bills. I'd love them at +3 or greater, but they're not nearly as appealing at +2.5. The two most likely results of this game, in my opinion, are the Bills and Chiefs winning by three, in some order. We're only getting one of those results with whichever side we take.
Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar:
Predictably, I'm hearing a lot of "Ooooh boy, KC might not have enough to beat THESE Bills!"
It's insane how much they're overreacting to one game.
Since the game in KC, they just weren't that impressive. They went 1-1 vs NE, got destroyed at home by the Colts, somehow only scored 6 points and lost to Jacksonville, lost to Tampa and Tennessee, and beat a bunch of garbage teams (Jets 2x, Carolina, Atlanta, New Orleans, Miami). A dominant team would have lost two in that stretch at the absolute most.
Recency bias.
East coast media.
The Bills played a perfect game against the East coast media darlings. I'd be shocked if they WEREN'T slobbering the Bills' knob. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar:
Predictably, I'm hearing a lot of "Ooooh boy, KC might not have enough to beat THESE Bills!"
It's insane how much they're overreacting to one game.
Since the game in KC, they just weren't that impressive. They went 1-1 vs NE, got destroyed at home by the Colts, somehow only scored 6 points and lost to Jacksonville, lost to Tampa and Tennessee, and beat a bunch of garbage teams (Jets 2x, Carolina, Atlanta, New Orleans, Miami). A dominant team would have lost two in that stretch at the absolute most.
People put a ton of stock into the Patriots game all because they see Belichick and assume great defense and solid overall team that will always play well. They still haven’t caught onto the missing DBs in that game, the fact the Patriots have no impactful defensive players, and that Belichick’s success as a whole was clearly propped up by Brady so any view of that team now has to be less generous of giving benefit of the doubt. The Patriots right now are little if at all different from teams like the Raiders, Steelers, and Browns as far as how good they are compared to the league. [Reply]
RECAP: If Allen plays like he did against the Patriots, the Bills will not lose in the playoffs. How often, however, does a team play a perfect game and then regress to the mean the following week? I'll be shocked if Buffalo scores a touchdown on every single possession once again.
Given that the Bills struggled to put away the Falcons and Jets down the stretch in the regular season, I have to believe that if there were an advance spread, it would have been Kansas City -3 or perhaps even -3.5. However, because of Buffalo's perfect game, this line is now on the other side of three.
This person needs to read Narratives That Need to Die.
It is amusing how he immediately calls out the pointlessness of saying something like "if he plays like that again".... might as well say, if they played the shit Patriots 4 times, they would win the SB! [Reply]
Originally Posted by mr. tegu:
People put a ton of stock into the Patriots game all because they see Belichick and assume great defense and solid overall team that will always play well. They still haven’t caught onto the missing DBs in that game, the fact the Patriots have no impactful defensive players, and that Belichick’s success as a whole was clearly propped up by Brady so any view of that team now has to be less generous of giving benefit of the doubt. The Patriots right now are little if at all different from teams like the Raiders, Steelers, and Browns as far as how good they are compared to the league.
Yeah - back before the Steelers were any sort of possibility, I was hoping we’d draw the Patriots.
They just got exposed when the schedule picked up a bit. That’s a .500 caliber football team.
In the end I think these 8 teams are probably the most compelling teams in the NFL. The Chargers, Cowboys and Cardinals had their moments and the Ravens can be frisky when healthy, but these teams were all playing good football down the stretch and these are the 8 that clearly belong, IMO.
Bad year to have expanded the field. There were more speedbumps than real contenders this season. [Reply]
Buffalo is 0-5 in games decided by 7 points or less this season, the Chiefs are 5-3.
The Bills are a front running team, especially Josh Allen… they can turn it on and look great in blowing teams out (perhaps helped by the fact they played the easiest schedule in the NFL this year), but they choke in close games. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Buffalo is 0-5 in games decided by 7 points or less this season, the Chiefs are 5-3.
The Bills are a front running team, especially Josh Allen… they can turn it on and look great in blowing teams out (perhaps helped by the fact they played the easiest schedule in the NFL this year), but they choke in close games.
They definitely treat garbage time like the SB, hence their inflated point difference despite awful losses. Kind of the opposite to KC, where we always give up the garbage time points.
And you're right, the Bills need to prove they can come back. We've seen Mahomes do it tons, when it matters. If they're down 10 in the early 4th, can they go on long scoring drives and clutch up on D?
With that in mind, hopefully we start fast. Put the pressure on early. Take QB Power off the table and make them want to take shots. We're overdue some batted ball and deflected INTs in our favor. [Reply]
Allen gets to the line, sees 1 high safety. Patriots in their base pass defense.
"ALERT. ALERT!" screams Allen. WR's now know to run deep overs routes crossing towards the middle of the field. Allen will make one read to the region where they are crossing.
Ball snapped, no pressure. Allen looks towards the middle of the field and waits for a second to see who clears best. It's Gabriel Davis. Allen fires the ball hard but way behind Davis. Doesn't matter as Patriots scheme mashed by college Air Raid.
22 yards, easy pass and catch. Same as last game against the Patriots and multiple times against the Dolphins whose coach also runs the Patriots scheme. [Reply]
