Royals have the 7th pick.
2021 MLB draft prospect rankings: Vanderbilt’s Jack Leiter stays on top, Jordan Lawlar moves up Keith Law’s top 50
The draft class looks weaker today than it did six weeks ago. More players have underperformed or gotten hurt than have boosted their standing through performance, new tools, or new conditioning. The college right-hander class isn’t as good as it first looked, and the college position player crop is bad – we might not see an SEC position player drafted in the first round for the first time since 2014 and just the third time in 15 years. The high school crop is about average, maybe lighter on arms than usual, but that’s less of an issue as the industry has moved away from high school arms in the first round in the last two years. It’s a tough year to draft high, but it might be a good year to have extra picks and/or a large bonus pool.
1. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas
3. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
4. Henry Davis, C, Louisville
5. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
6. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
7. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) HS
8. Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) HS
9. Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
10. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS
Leiter would absolutely go 1-1 if the draft were today, but I think he might actually be getting too much hype after his recent run of a nine-inning no-hitter, a seven-inning no-hit start, and two almost-as-dominant outings since then where he allowed six hits in 13 innings with 25 strikeouts. He’s the best guy in the class, but I don’t think it’s fair to assume that because he’s the top prospect this year, he’s going to be Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg – Leiter is different, and has less chance to become an ace than either of those guys did. But he’s still atop this board, and right now I don’t think it’s that close.
I do know scouts who think Lawlar is the best prospect in the draft, and with the paucity of bats at the college level, he’s probably going to go off the board in the first three picks. He’s one of the toolsiest kids in the draft, with plus speed, future plus defense at short, and great bat speed. He’ll turn 19 right before the draft, so he’s one of the older high school players, and doesn’t have the same advanced instincts and feel for the game as Bobby Witt, Jr. (another Metroplex-area high school shortstop who went second overall in 2019), but may have even more upside.
Rocker’s velocity has been down the last few outings, with a lot of 89-91 or 89-92 mph, although there’s no evidence that there’s something more serious here than just fatigue. He also hasn’t pitched that well with the lower velo, which is hardly surprising. If he doesn’t regain his usual velocity before the end of the college season, it might hurt his standing, but I’m not ready to say this is much more than a midseason slump in a year when a lot of college and high school pitchers are dealing with fatigue earlier in the season than usual. To be entirely fair to Rocker, he’s still struck out 39 guys in 25 innings in four SEC starts, so he’s not really “slumping.”
Davis has mashed all year, with huge power and a patient eye, and he’s got a plus arm and enough receiving skills to stay behind the plate. Joey Bart went second overall with less bat and more glove; I don’t think it’s a stretch to think Davis could be the first college position player taken.
And if it’s not Davis, it will probably be Frelick, who has taken to center field while walking more than he strikes out and already topping his career-best in home runs. He may not hit for the same kind of power in pro ball, but it’s very promising to see him make so much hard contact given his 5-foot-9 frame.
Before last weekend’s rough outing against Arkansas, where he walked five Hogs in 5 1/3 innings, Hoglund had been the most consistent starter in college baseball, allowing no more than three walks or three runs in any start, and punching out 10 or more in every start but one. He pitches with a lot of above-average stuff, but the curve could be a real out pitch if he uses it more. With his command and control, however, he’s going to go in the top 10 either way, and could even pass Rocker if the latter’s velocity doesn’t eventually pick up.
Mayer is a definite shortstop with feel to hit and average speed, probably not projecting to power but with sufficient strength to hit enough to profile as an above-average regular at short. Lawlar has bigger tools, and he’ll be first off the board among prep bats, but Mayer should be second.
House has some of the best exit velocities in the draft with unreal power in games this spring, and thanks to some small swing adjustments he’s showing that he can use the whole field better. He’s not going to stay at shortstop, and may have to work to become an average defender at third.
Cusick might have the draft’s best fastball, up to 100 mph with spin and elite extension, and he can really spin a breaking ball, although the pitch isn’t consistent. He’s punched out 39 percent of the batters he’s faced this year, and the Deacons’ defense hasn’t done him many favors (he’s allowed a .450 BABIP), but even improved control hasn’t gotten him to average yet.
Watson’s season won’t begin for another two weeks, but he showed enough last summer and fall to profile as a top-10 pick, with no below-average tools, potentially plus-plus defense at shortstop, and hard contact. He’s very strong for his size, although some teams will shy away from a 5-foot-9 high school player.
[Reply]
