I watched all of their conference tournament games last night so I'll throw out some thoughts on what I saw.
First, they are really small. The PG who they have primarily lead their press is, I believe, 5' 8, and I could probably walk into my local gym and find more physically imposing players on the pickup courts. They really get punished on the glass and don't have anyone who is particularly skilled at rebounding. Their tallest guy who gets big minutes is 6' 9", and they have no shot blocking presence to speak off.
Their offense is not what I expected. It's hard to explain as there isn't a stat for this, but in the half court, they aren't as good at 3s and take some absolutely horrible shots. They like to set maybe one screen and jack it up or drive. This isn't BYU running guys off screens and trying to confuse the defense into open looks. They rarely post up, which I'll get to in a second, and they do love to drive if the 3 isn't there. But their guards aren't big or strong, which I think bodes well for us on drives.
They are absolutely deadly when things start going bad for the other team. If their press is getting turnovers and suddenly those threes are wide open? Now you have a problem. Taking bad 3s and they can run out in transition? Also bad news. That's when their 3 point shooting really shines. If you can avoid this though, they become weak very quickly. Because they have no one inside they give up lots of offensive rebounds and easy scores, and their press, like all presses, can absolutely give up several dunks a game.
Their X factor is certainly Achor. He's basically a KJ clone if KJ could occasionally hit the 3. He doesn't take many a game, about 1-3(although one random game he took 9?), but they love to use him on screen and rolls up top and have him slash. They don't do pick and pop to him much, his threes are usually just him randomly being open at the end of the shot clock, but he's going to be a problem for Hunter on defense. But, like KJ, he doesn't rebound well for his size. Sure, you'll see he gets rebounds in the box score, but that's mostly because someone on their small team has to get some. He isn't flying over people snagging the ball out of the air or doing put back slam dunks. They also like to post up their other forward, get a double team with him, and then have Achor slash from the perimeter for an easy layup on the cut. We absolutely can't have the "hunter slowly rolls over for a double team" play because that's going to get us killed. Let them try and go 1 v 1 down low and shoot over our size.
In the half court, their defense is trying to be like Marquette played us. Junk zones and trying to fly around creating chaos. However, they aren't nearly as disciplined as someone like Marquette and there are absolutely going to be opportunities for easy dunks and lobs. This is an absolute tailor made KJ Adams matchup, and I expect him to feast with nobody to stop him inside.
Overall, I came away more optimistic when I saw them play. Their stats are scary, but when you see how they actually match up with us, or any high major D1 team really, it's much easier to understand why Purdue beat them by 45. Even if some bad things happen they aren't in position to punish us. For example, say hunter gets into early foul trouble. Well we can slide KJ to the 5 and go small and not have to worry about rebounding. Or put Braun in and have no fear that they are going to just post him up against a much bigger, stronger opponent. Timberlake playing? Their guards can't really bully him to the basket and they don't run sets long enough to really make him get lost on defense. We sometimes struggle to score, but going against a defense that by design gives up easy baskets sometimes should keep us in a rhythm. Their defense isn't really made to grind it out and force tough shots, which we struggle against. It's hoping we miss layups or make dumb turnovers. Obviously this team can certainly do that and yes, we have shown we can lose to anyone. No one would be absolutely shocked if we lose this game, especially when we have no idea who is actually healthy. But if you look past their three point shooting percentage, you see a game where we have an advantage in basically every other facet of the game. If we come out focused, this game is over at half time. [Reply]
Originally Posted by SithCeNtZ:
I watched all of their conference tournament games last night so I'll throw out some thoughts on what I saw.
First, they are really small. The PG who they have primarily lead their press is, I believe, 5' 8, and I could probably walk into my local gym and find more physically imposing players on the pickup courts. They really get punished on the glass and don't have anyone who is particularly skilled at rebounding. Their tallest guy who gets big minutes is 6' 9", and they have no shot blocking presence to speak off.
Their offense is not what I expected. It's hard to explain as there isn't a stat for this, but in the half court, they aren't as good at 3s and take some absolutely horrible shots. They like to set maybe one screen and jack it up or drive. This isn't BYU running guys off screens and trying to confuse the defense into open looks. They rarely post up, which I'll get to in a second, and they do love to drive if the 3 isn't there. But their guards aren't big or strong, which I think bodes well for us on drives.
They are absolutely deadly when things start going bad for the other team. If their press is getting turnovers and suddenly those threes are wide open? Now you have a problem. Taking bad 3s and they can run out in transition? Also bad news. That's when their 3 point shooting really shines. If you can avoid this though, they become weak very quickly. Because they have no one inside they give up lots of offensive rebounds and easy scores, and their press, like all presses, can absolutely give up several dunks a game.
Their X factor is certainly Achor. He's basically a KJ clone if KJ could occasionally hit the 3. He doesn't take many a game, about 1-3(although one random game he took 9?), but they love to use him on screen and rolls up top and have him slash. They don't do pick and pop to him much, his threes are usually just him randomly being open at the end of the shot clock, but he's going to be a problem for Hunter on defense. But, like KJ, he doesn't rebound well for his size. Sure, you'll see he gets rebounds in the box score, but that's mostly because someone on their small team has to get some. He isn't flying over people snagging the ball out of the air or doing put back slam dunks. They also like to post up their other forward, get a double team with him, and then have Achor slash from the perimeter for an easy layup on the cut. We absolutely can't have the "hunter slowly rolls over for a double team" play because that's going to get us killed. Let them try and go 1 v 1 down low and shoot over our size.
In the half court, their defense is trying to be like Marquette played us. Junk zones and trying to fly around creating chaos. However, they aren't nearly as disciplined as someone like Marquette and there are absolutely going to be opportunities for easy dunks and lobs. This is an absolute tailor made KJ Adams matchup, and I expect him to feast with nobody to stop him inside.
Overall, I came away more optimistic when I saw them play. Their stats are scary, but when you see how they actually match up with us, or any high major D1 team really, it's much easier to understand why Purdue beat them by 45. Even if some bad things happen they aren't in position to punish us. For example, say hunter gets into early foul trouble. Well we can slide KJ to the 5 and go small and not have to worry about rebounding. Or put Braun in and have no fear that they are going to just post him up against a much bigger, stronger opponent. Timberlake playing? Their guards can't really bully him to the basket and they don't run sets long enough to really make him get lost on defense. We sometimes struggle to score, but going against a defense that by design gives up easy baskets sometimes should keep us in a rhythm. Their defense isn't really made to grind it out and force tough shots, which we struggle against. It's hoping we miss layups or make dumb turnovers. Obviously this team can certainly do that and yes, we have shown we can lose to anyone. No one would be absolutely shocked if we lose this game, especially when we have no idea who is actually healthy. But if you look past their three point shooting percentage, you see a game where we have an advantage in basically every other facet of the game. If we come out focused, this game is over at half time.
That all sounds well and good but I think it is fair to say I will have a decidedly different view. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Ceej:
Feels like an easy run to the S16, tbh.
Definitely wouldn't take Gonzaga lightly, or McNeese for that matter, but I think they should roll Samford. Then again, we don't know how healthy/effective McCullar and Dickinson will be. [Reply]
To get KCC started because it's already Tuesday and he's hasn't been freaking out yet, and to steal a little bit of his "OMG we're going to lose!11!!1!".....
Most likely 1st RD upsets by seed line per KenPom:
3: Oakland over Kentucky (+17.20) 4: Samford over Kansas (+9.44) 5: Grand Canyon over St Mary's (+5.98) 6: New Mexico (+2.00) over Clemson 7: Colorado (+0.28) over Florida 8: TCU (+2.18 over Utah St, Mich St (+2.05) over Miss St
Originally Posted by TLO:
I've been checked out from this team since mid January. I don't know what it is about this group, I just don't have the passion for this year.
Exactly how I feel. Plow summed it up as "this team is boring"... and they have definitely been uninspired the past few months.
I feel like most are matching the team's level of passion.
Part of it for me was having a bunch of stuff going on in Nov/Dec... IIRC, the UK comeback happened after like 10pm on a weeknight and I missed it. Caught some of the Tenn game, sadly missed the UConn game.
Hell, even missed most of the Houston game in Lawrence. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
Exactly how I feel. Plow summed it up as "this team is boring"... and they have definitely been uninspired the past few months.
I feel like most are matching the team's level of passion.
Part of it for me was having a bunch of stuff going on in Nov/Dec... IIRC, the UK comeback happened after like 10pm on a weeknight and I missed it. Caught some of the Tenn game, sadly missed the UConn game.
Hell, even missed most of the Houston game in Lawrence.
They are boring because of "the best point guard in the country". Dude has not improved at all from prior year, has absolutely no change in demeanor ever, and isn't the type of guy to be leading the team. He's a perfectly fine point guard if you have 3-4 other studs around him, but we don't have it. And I'm afraid it's gonna be the same BS again next year because Self absolutely loves him. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
Exactly how I feel. Plow summed it up as "this team is boring"... and they have definitely been uninspired the past few months.
I feel like most are matching the team's level of passion.
Part of it for me was having a bunch of stuff going on in Nov/Dec... IIRC, the UK comeback happened after like 10pm on a weeknight and I missed it. Caught some of the Tenn game, sadly missed the UConn game.
Hell, even missed most of the Houston game in Lawrence.
I just don't know how else to describe them. Even at full strength I've just kind of been "meh" about them. They can absolutely lose on Thursday, but they could also play to Sweet 16/Elite 8.
There just isn't anyone on the team that I "love". I'm big on Furphy; hope he sticks around. Harris is solid, but like RockChalk said, there has been zero improvement from last year. McCullar is fine for what he is. I'm not a fan of Dickinson or Timberlake and watching them on the floor just takes me out of games. KJ is fun to watch at times. [Reply]
