Originally Posted by cmd227:
You know. I really like y'all over here. Your football knowledge is vast, honest and respectable. You have a great sense of humor amongst each other with some good ball busting along the way. I am glad the Eagles are playing the Chiefs. This has been a fun two weeks and no matter the outcome, we appreciate your kindness to us Eagles fans. Go Birds!
Best of luck bro! Nice having legit fans stop by and not just trolls like the sack of shits from Cincy and Beefalo [Reply]
One reason their sack rate is so high and Duncan briefly mentioned it is that they get pressure with more than one guy. The Jags only have one good rush defender in Josh Allen, most QB’s can avoid one guy if there is nobody else there to clean it up. The Eagles have been successful as their DL is full of guys who can clean it up after the first one gets pressure.
The Chiefs have been much better at DE this year. When Karlaftis/Clark/Dunlap get a little pressure and force the QB up Jones cleans it up. I don’t see Karlaftis beating Lane Johnson very often, but he can stay in his lane and clean a couple up, we need Clark and Jones to get Jalen moving initially tho. Sneed could have a couple of big blitzes as well.
Brandon Williams also might get a little more play as a run stuffer this game. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
As anyone who peruses the Royals thread knows, Duncan Idaho is a big old stat nerd, and he loves digging in, dusting off his data analysis hat, and seeing what's what.
So I've done that this morning.
The study: How do the Eagles (and Chiefs) 2022 pass rush statistics rate compared to other teams in 2022 and in the 2020, 2021, and 2022 seasons in aggregate?
Finding #1: The Eagles had an outstanding sack/pressure rate in 2022 of 41.7 percent (how many of their team pressures were sacks?), but did not lead the NFL (That would be the New Orleans Saints, who have a good DL and benefited from a schedule with a lot of games against average-bad QBs/offenses on it).
The Eagles' sacks/pressure rate would have led the league by a wide margin in 2020 and 2021, as no other team/unit has been above 40 percent in that period of time.
Interestingly, 8 of the top 10 sack/pressure rate teams from 2020-22 were 2022 squads, and 5 of those were NFC teams.
So what does this tell me? The Eagles are an outlier, with a rate that's in the top 2.5 percent of outcomes. Why?
Schedule is part of it. They played a lot of weak offenses led by average or worse QBs.
Having a "complete" pass rush is part of it, too. Teams that stood out in converting higher percentages of their pressures into sacks tended to have several DL capable of winning (compare 2022 Chiefs to 2020 and 2021, for example. The Chiefs' percentage jumped, with better play at both DE spots).
Finding #2: The Eagles' total number of pressures in 2022 was not an outlier like the sack total was.
Don't get me wrong. The Eagles still had a total number of pressures in the 80th percentile of all teams (82nd, to be exact), which is obviously very good.
But there are two 2022 teams that had more pressures than the Eagles:
Kansas City Chiefs
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Eagles converted pressures into sacks at a higher rate than either (41.7 percent for Eagles, 30.9 for Chiefs, 20.8 for Jags).
So when Eagles media people start trying to say the Chiefs/Mahomes have never faced a pass rush that can generate pressure like the Eagles, it's true if you're talking about raw sack totals... and not true if you're talking about pressures on the QB.
The Jaguars in 2022 were more successful at generating pressures than the Eagles, and the 2020 Bucaneers, 2021 Cowboys, 2021 Bills, 2020 Ravens, 2021 Bengals, 2021 Steelers, and 2021 Titans all were, too.
I'll stop there. But I think there is important context lurking under the surface that so many fans and media are just missing/not digging into.
It will be interesting to see if the Eagles high conversion rate of pressures to sacks continues in the Super Bowl. I believe it won't, due to the following factors:
1) The Eagles' conversion rate in 2022 was an outlier, and could be considered fluky/driven by the quality of competition they faced
2) Patrick Mahomes is better at getting the ball out quickly AND escaping pressure than any QB the Eagles have faced this year, even at less than 100 percent.
3) The Chiefs OL is better at pass blocking than any team the Eagles have faced this year, because it's the best pass blocking unit in the NFL. Especially on the interior, where Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith all post elite (top 5) win rates on pass blocks, with Thuney and Creed being leaders in that regard.
If you've made it to the end of this, please accept my thanks and apologies.
I’ve been looking at the Twitter folks analyzing the Eagles. They really rely on their front 4 and sit everyone else back.
They’ve got some depth too with Quinn and Suh rotating as rotational backups.
I just listened to Times Ours and I agree with a lot of their sentiment to use a shit ton of 12 and 13 personnel like we did against the Cardinals.
Originally Posted by RunKC:
I’ve been looking at the Twitter folks analyzing the Eagles. They really rely on their front 4 and sit everyone else back.
They’ve got some depth too with Quinn and Suh rotating as rotational backups.
I just listened to Times Ours and I agree with a lot of their sentiment to use a shit ton of 12 and 13 personnel like we did against the Cardinals.
I think that’s ideal
The Eagles have a pair of great interior pass rushers in Hargrave and Cox (and good depth behind them). When you watch their all-sack highlight, you don't see a lot of "quick win speed rush on the outside" sacks. You see a lot of unit rushes that collapse the pocket steadily, or wins with power.
The Chiefs' OL is set up to be good at countering those. [Reply]
Originally Posted by cmd227:
You know. I really like y'all over here. Your football knowledge is vast, honest and respectable. You have a great sense of humor amongst each other with some good ball busting along the way. I am glad the Eagles are playing the Chiefs. This has been a fun two weeks and no matter the outcome, we appreciate your kindness to us Eagles fans. Go Birds!
Had a dream McKinnon returned an attempt at an onsides kick for a touchdown and suddenly the rout was on.
Summary: this is the first time I've dreamt about an upcoming football game I wasn't playing in and it seems that the Elders are clearly sending me a message. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Why Not?:
I'd take the under. No way the NFL wants this to be about the officiating after the shit they took for how poorly officiated the CCGs were.
You mean the same Roger Goodell when asked about how awful officiating is said that "it's never been better" [Reply]
Originally Posted by Cave Johnson:
Especially not with a bum throwing shoulder. Early reports questioned his ability to return for the playoffs. It’s been 50-ish days since he got hurt. I’m guessing it’s a structural thing like Allen’s UCL.
Their worst offenses performances have come after his injury and he’s not throwing 10+ yard passes well.
I say we blanket short routes see if he can beat us deep...scary thing to test though [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho: Follow up analysis:
I went back and added 2018 and 2019 to my data set.
The Eagles' 70 sacks remain the top mark in that five-year period, and their sack/pressure rate becomes even more of an outlier, as the sack total is in the 99th percentile, but the pressure total falls into the 77th percentile.
End summary:
The Eagles' 2022 squad is very special at converting pressures to sacks, doing so at a higher rather than any other defense in the past 5 years.
It is not especially special at generating pressure on the QB. It's good, but not exceptional.
The 49ers team the Chiefs beat in Super Bowl LIV had more pressures on the year, for example. One of 14 teams the Chiefs have played in the past five years who had more pressures of the QB than this year's Eagles team.
Mahomes is very good at avoiding sacks when pressured. Hes such a quick dude when it comes down to it even if he isn't fast. And his ability to change arm angles helps. Perhaps the Eagles amassed as many sacks as they did despite not best ever pressures was due to the avg qbs they faced.
Cuz they aint never seen someone like #15 before. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Mahomes is very good at avoiding sacks when pressured. Hes such a quick dude when it comes down to it even if he isn't fast. And his ability to change arm angles helps. Perhaps the Eagles amassed as many sacks as they did despite not best ever pressures was due to the avg qbs they faced.
Originally Posted by smithandrew051:
I think we all know he’s good. We’d welcome him on our team for sure.
Bigger, stronger receivers have given the Chiefs more problems over the years than smaller quicker ones. We tend to fall victim to 50/50 jump balls a lot.
From what I saw of Smith this year, he seemed to either go off or was pretty quiet. Maybe that’s a result of Hurts not being an overly prolific passer. Do I have that right?
I'm not sure it's a Hurts thing. When healthy this year, he has thrown way better (accuracy and strength) than I ever thought he could. I was one of the many Hurts doubters coming into this season. Based on last season, I just didn't think he'd be able to make that big of an improvement on accuracy, and just as importantly to me, on being able to see the field and get past his first read. He took monumental steps in both of those this year. Unfortunately I think the injury will keep him from showing what he can actually do this game.
With regards to Smith, or even Brown, they will have games where they just seem to have an underwhelming stat line if you just look at box scores. But that has typically (not always) been because they had a lead and began running the ball more. It's also why their ypc is lower than it should be. Too many games where by the last quarter they were running alot and the defenses knew they were running so they were stacking the box.
Obviously as an Eagles fan I could wish that Smith was a bit taller (though he's not short) and a bit thicker, but the man can absolutely jump something crazy. The Eagles haven't had many receivers over the years that were true jump ball guys. Both Brown and Smith can fill that role, which has led to alot of success this year. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Mahomes is very good at avoiding sacks when pressured. Hes such a quick dude when it comes down to it even if he isn't fast. And his ability to change arm angles helps. Perhaps the Eagles amassed as many sacks as they did despite not best ever pressures was due to the avg qbs they faced.
Cuz they aint never seen someone like #5 before.
Yup. Townsend is going to make them pay if they underestimate him. [Reply]
