You add up JJSS, Watson, McKinnon, and Hardman's stats, and you get about those numbers. I allowed for a little fudge factor, but it's close enough.

What I'm looking at is simply what's missing, and realistically where that production is going to come from, no hopes and wishes allowed. From the FO perspective, I don't think you can just be hopeful that Toney stays healthy for the season and/or that Skyy just up and triples his production.

I know that if i were Veach I definitely wouldn't be just laying back thinking "No worries, I'm a draft wizard. I've got two rings that tell me so. I'll just draft a true WR1 (something we haven't been able to come close to in five years), Andy'll develop him, he'll be an instant success, and we're all good. SBLVIII here we come."
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Juju had numbers, but what did he do, really, that was special? Meaning, what did he do that any number of middling WR's wouldn't have done? He didn't get separation, really. We don't really do 'contested' balls much. Of course, that's because Andy schemes up mismatches and gets guys open. Like Kelce said, "Andy Reid could get my dad open."

Mckinnon and Watson are still out there. I'd be shocked if they're not back, especially Mckinnon. But Watson, too, as a guy that can play a few roles in this offense due to his size and speed, and he knows the offense.

They obviously just flat didn't want Hardman.

Really, we're out Juju, who was productive, but not spectacular. He wasn't special, just a steady possession receiver. There's nothing there that, say, Justin Watson couldn't do. No, that's not crazy. Juju with a bum knee wasn't special. Just consistent. Watson is as big, and much faster.

See, the thing is, you're looking at KC through a lens of previous production only, disregarding the fact that Toney was a second year guy, and Moore was a first year guy and saying we're in big trouble.

But you're also looking at the competitors as if they're returning everyone and will be as good or better than 2022. This is not the case. They're all having their own roster issues. Buffalo's kind of screwed. Cinci is down their two safeties, which means their secondary now blows.

And you're also not counting in the very likely possibility that this defense will be improved as well, possibly a LOT better, and perhaps we don't have to be the #1 offense to win a Super Bowl. Maybe top 5 would be enough. Do you think there's a reality in which Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes don't finish top 5? I don't, unless it's a season ending Mahomes injury, and we're ****ed no matter what if that happens.

In which of Tom Brady's 6 Super Bowl winning seasons in New England did he have an elite WR corps? And if you want to pound the table for fucking Edelman, I'll laugh you out of the room. I'm talking gamebreakers, not dink and dunk slot guys.

They put a really good 52 around Brady every year, and didn't panic. That's what they did. And it worked more often than any other franchise ever.

This is where we're at right now, paying our guy while the other contenders aren't yet.
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Let's do an imagination exercise.

Envision that Toney triples his production. That doesn't seem overly far-fetched to me. He now has 42/513/6

Now envision that Moore doubles his production. I think that could be very reasonable given how he closed the season. He now has 44/500/0

So, lets say we bring Watson back and his 15/315/2.

That means of the JuJu/Hardman combine loss we need to make up 63/638/3

I don't know if it's unfathomable to think maybe a guy like Ross could come in and get 20/220/1. I mean, that's pretty much what Moore did his entire rookie year right.

So you're left with 43/418/2

It doesn't seem ridiculous to me that Reid can manufacture that from a couple of rookies. A lot of 2nd round WRs have put up that lately.

The part of the equation we have to hope gets answered is McKinnon's 56/512/9 and that's not missing from your WRs.
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I'm not disregarding Toney; I'm just laying out the facts about him. And Skyy. And I like Skyy. obviously I like Toney.

Here' let's try this another way. Take our WR room and lay it down next to the WR rooms of the top 10 teams in the league right now. Do you honestly think that they match up very well? Is there a team in that top-10 that you think would trade us straight up room for room?
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excellent analysis, and I'd about bet the house that your estimates are short, barring injury.

And I'd also just about bet the house that Mckinnon comes back. I know they like him, he loves it here, and it's a perfect fit skill wise and money-wise.
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Again, you're basing your entire argument on PAST PRODUCTION.

When you have a second year guy and a guy that had half a season with you, yeah, the PAST PRODUCTION looks thin.

You're talking about two guys that are what, 23 years old?

And you're comparing a WR room that is incomplete in April to others that more set.

AND you're comparing as if the WR rooms can be measured in a vacuum, which is also a false equivalency.

If Mckinnon catches like 70 balls and scores 10TD's, is that a knock against the WR corps? I mean, why?

Why is one guy's production a knock on another guy? Who cares?

Andy had lots of years with RB's putting up sick receiving numbers in Philly. What's the problem? Not a bad way to go, while you're going young at WR and hoping to draft and develop good WR's rather than pay market price for...wait for it..PAST PRODUCTION.

Just saying.

Dude, it's going to be fine. I have zero doubt that Veach and Andy have a plan and multiple pivots that they're comfortable with.
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McKinnon's production is a problem. Basically I began looking at JJSS and McKinnon as one guy; when JuJu stopped producing, Mckinnon kind of took over for him.

Regardless, since we can't currently depend on Jerrick returning yet, that's a fairly large pile of yards (which I don't really care about by themselves), 1st downs (pretty important), and TDs out there unaccounted for.

I did some basic math a couple weeks ago, and as it stands we're missing about 24 TDs from last season. Now, we blew out like three-four teams i think, so we don't actually need all of those TDs to 'win those games from last season.' i think I figured maybe we needed about 17-18 of them. The rest were fluff.

And let's not forget that this was a down year for scoring, the first season in over five years or some such. Whatever Chris Simms said a few weeks ago. So, it's likely that scoring will go back up. So, we'll have to score more to win as many games. Because it's highly likely that the NFL hates us, and we'll end up playing the toughest schedule again, I mean, why not just believe that at this point.

And of course, we kicked a bunch of FGs, so not all of our scoring needs to come from TDs. But a large percentage of them we did need, because so many games last season were decided by 4 points or less.

And again for the 37th time (hyperbole), I'm not saying all of that production has to come from one player or even one room. My question has always been, "okay, then where do you think it's coming from? Realistically, where are all those yards, 1st downs, 3rd down conversions, and TDs coming from?"

Because they have to come from somewhere. And I'm just not comfortable believing that there's nearly enough talent in the WR room as it stands with the addition of some rookie WR.

As always, I hope I'm waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay wrong. Or maybe Veach/Andy will approach it from an angle I haven't even thought of. But the WR room is a bunch of "w hope this guy does something significant," and not a whole lot else.

Damn, I need a drink, but it's Tuesday. Fuck it.
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Buddy, do you believe that there's a minimum number of TDs a team needs to score to have a winning record/get into the playoffs? That you can't score just 20 TDs in a season and get to the playoffs? Or that your defense can't give up 100 TDs and get into the playoffs?

I'm talking about what we bare-ass minimum need, not just what we did last year. Imo, there's a minimum set of numbers that a team has to achieve to have a realistic shot at getting into the playoffs, and therefore punch a ticket to the SB. Now, based on just how many tight games KC played last season, I think we weren't that far above whatever those minimum numbers/stats were. maybe not razor thin, but thin.

If that is the case, then we have to believe that we need just about every point we scored last season to realistically expect to get back to the SB this season. Not all, but most.

So right now, we're missing about 24 TDs and all those other numbers. I don't know how much of all of those stats we actually need, but if we need most of them, then I'd really like to know where they're coming from, realistically.
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Well, first of all, we don't know how many TD's we'll need to score, because we don't know how many we'll give up. The defense should by any stretch of the imagination be better having played all of those rookies last year. It's not a great reach to figure they'll be better for the experience, and adding Omenihu should be an improvement.

Second, we don't know if we have to 'replace' Mckinnon; in fact, we could very well just pick up the phone and plug him right back in. In fact, it's so likely that the only way they DON'T would be because they have a BETTER idea than bringing in a guy that's proven in the system and is cheap. I mean, I have no idea what that would be. Do you?

And third, once again, you're looking at PAST PRODUCTION and it's clear we're going YOUNGER in the WR corps. I mean that's inarguable. That means you're projecting your talent. I get that's less comforting than simply looking at what a guy did last year and expecting that. But you know, we're paying our QB 18% of the cap now. That's going to happen every year now, from one position group to another. It's just the way it is. Is it a risk? Yeah. You better hope you're right. But it's also necessary. Last year was the secondary. And you know what? It turned out pretty good. This year appears to be the WR corps. Alright. Andy wouldn't sign off on it if he wasn't confident.

You kind of have to play the kids to develop them. If you keep them on the bench in favor of PAST PRODUCTION, they don't grow.

Right now, no, probably not a top 15 WR room. But I bet we think differently next February. Or Veach and Reid suddenly became idiots and we're screwed.

I know what I'd bet on.
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Man, I'd really like to know what the deal is with McKinnon. Brb; I just decided it was Thursday.
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Dude.

You're still freaking about about PAST PRODUCTION.

We're not missing ANY TDS IN APRIL. We don't play the fucking games in April.

WE ARE NOT MISSING ANY TDS. NONE. NOT A SINGLE FUCKING ONE.

Because the other teams are all going to be different too, and the teams on the schedule are different, and they're not lining up the same 53 either. And they're not going to score the same, or give up the same as last year. It'll all be different because ALL of the teams are different. And they're all going to be hoping their young players step up, too.

Because it's April, and because the WR room is not yet complete, and neither is the RB room, and maybe not the TE room either, and we have no idea how many TD's the Defense will give up (because you know, it's APRIL) and they haven't played any games yet.

Here's the thing: if you go young at a position group, you cannot focus on the PAST PRODUCTION because there isn't much. You are OBSESSED with comparing the WR room in a complete vacuum and based entirely on PAST PRODUCTION. This is a completely false frame.

This is where GM's, head coaches, and offensive coordinators make their money. If you can't draft and develop consistently, you're going to fail. You cannot spend your way to Super Bowls with any consistency. You have to draft and develop and find undervalued assets or you're the Rams.

Fail at this task, and you're the Packers.

Succeed at it, and you're the Brady Patriots.
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There's just no way he's not back.

They clearly like and trust him. he's 31, nobody's going to pay him big money. This is the perfect place for him to extend his career and win championships. Perfect situation with Pacheco, so he doesn't get the wear and tear given his injury history.

I bet they're in contact, told him to let them match any offers, and sign him after they do the Jones extension.
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We have to use past production because we obviously can't use future production. And I fudged the numbers for both Skyy and Toney several times, because obviously we don't have hardly any production to speak of, so we have to extrapolate some realistic numbers. Last weekend I even fudged numbers for Justin Watson and Noah Gray.

But there are actual mins a team needs to get to in order to have a serious shot at the playoffs. They vary depending on the team, but they exist for each team.

So, just for example, if we look at the Chiefs defense for the last four years and average out a bunch of stats, we find that overall the Chiefs defense allows 75% of teams to score their average. Which coincidentally is right about what our defense allowed last season.

So, take LAC. They basically will score about 26 points vs. the Chiefs. KC tends to score 28+ against LAC. Shockingly, most of the games between KC and LAC are decided by a FG or so, and KC wins most of those games.

When KC plays most any AFC team, the defense allows right about their scoring average, and the Chiefs offense, until 2022, scored nearly a TD more than what the opposing defense usually gave up against anyone else.

Against most NFC teams the Chiefs tend to score nearly a TD above their average, as opposed to AFC teams, no idea why.

Anyway, I can take all those numbers and come up with a basic idea of how many TDs, 1st downs, 3rd down conversions, RZ efficiency, etc. it would take KC to probably get into the playoffs. It wouldn't be precise, but it would be in the ballpark. They won't tell me which games we'll win, but it will tell me indirectly roughly how many TDs KC will need to earn a playoff seed, as long as the defense plays at least as well as they have over the last four years. If the defense somehow craps out, then obviously all that math goes out the window.

It's about the only thing all those season total stats are really good for anyway. Looking at larger sets of numbers, like over a couple years, over five years, whatever.

Anyway, the point is, we can ballpark it. So it's not exactly true that we don't know how many TDs/1st downs/etc. we need. We have enough data to make a decent guess.
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He's become a fucking spam bot at this point. Harping about the same thing over and over.
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Mahomes will get his TDs. It doesn't matter who he's throwing to.
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