I think we all expect that the trio of Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill will still be a potent group, and that the offense will work itself out to some degree.
There are pieces we need to fit in to be complete, but I think it's also obvious that the defense is the most pressing issue.
so what's your plan?
Can Spags? Who's your hire?
What players are you letting walk, re-sign, what positions are you drafting?
Who do you feel good about rolling with moving forward? [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I usually model this as things become more known with mocks in the draft area but here goes...
Offseason Moves:
Coaching:
Ideally, fire Steve Spagnuolo and hire University of Wisconsin D-Coord Jim Leonard and let him bring in his own position coaches.
Current Player Transactions
Release: LB Anthony Hitchens, ER Frank Clark
Trade DT Chris Jones before the 3rd day of the league year (when his roster bonus guarantees) for likely day 2 pick (calling it a 3rd for now).
UFAs to Let Walk: SS Tyrann Mathieu, DT Jarran Reed, SS Daniel Sorensen, LB Ben Niemann, ER Alex Okafor, SS Aramani Watts. CB Mike Hughes
ERFA Tender: CB Deandre Baker, CB Chris Lammons
Re-sign to Minimum deals: LB Dorian O'Daniel (1 yr. Yeah he's not much except STs, could be cut later)
Re-sign to Low/Mid-Tier deals: CB Charvarious Ward, DT Derrick Nnadi
Other Cap saving assumptions: WR Tyreek Hill will be extended with Roster bonus converted to signing, QB Patrick Mahomes Roster bonus converted to signing
Free Agent Target Acquisitions
LB Nicholas Morrow (LV, 27) - Should be a mid-tier contract for a good coverage LB on a 1-2 yr deal
DE Derrick Barnett (PHI, 26) - Should be a mid-tier contract for a decent young end can at minimum function as a rotational pass rusher 2-3 yr deal
DE Emmanuel Ogbah (MIA, 29) - Should be a mid-tier contract for a solid pass rusher on a 2 yr deal
FS M.J. Stewart (CLE, 27) - Should be a low-tier contract for a solid nickel/reserve safety on a 1 yr deal
FS Marcus Williams (NO, 26) - Likely elite-tier contract for an All-Pro caliber playmaker on the back end on a 4-5 yr deal
DT Bilal Nichols (CHI, 26) - Should be a mid-tier contract for a solid tackle with pass rush and run stopping ability
Draft:
I hate to "lock-in" on any one position in any round, but I think the Chiefs have to take a DE or LT with their first-round pick. Best at whichever position is left on the table. If they don't go DE in 1 though, things get dicey and the defense is a top priority. They could live with Brown another year on a tag at LT and draft a developmental guy or wait until next year.
So, going with adding a 3rd for trading Jones...
1. DE Jermaine Johnson, Florida State
2. LB Brandon Smith, Penn State
3. WR Romeo Doubs, Nevada
3. CB Coby Bryant, Cincinnati
4. DT Jayden Peevy, Texas A&M
6. SS Smoke Monday, Auburn
7. WR Corey Sutton, Appalachian State
7. RB Greg Bell, San Diego State
7. DE Dante Stills, West Virginia
My defensive roster:
DE: J. Johnson (R1), E. Ogbah (FA), D. Barnett (FA) M. Danna, J. Kaindoh, D. Stills (R7)
DT: B. Nichols (FA), D. Nnadi, K. Saunders, J. Peevy (R4), T. Wharton
LB: W. Gay, N. Bolton, B. Smith (R2), N. Morrow (FA), D. O'Daniel
CB: C. Ward, R. Fenton, L. Sneed (NB), C. Bryant (R3), D. Baker, C. Lammons
SS: J. Thornhill, S. Monday (R6)
FS: M. Williams, M. Stewart
Some notes:
I'm high on building a 4-deep rotation of DEs like I have modeled here. They don't all need to be stars but if you get the right rotation you can keep bring pressure all day long, which is alot of what Tampa does.
I think Thornhill has great downhill attack speed and is a really solid tackler. I like him playing SS where that skill set can be taken advantage of. Put a ballhawk like Williams behind him and I think you have a good group.
Meanwhile, Sneed takes over as that jack-of-all-trades guy in a Mathieu-type role where he can play the slot, blitz, and roam middle of the field. I think drafting a guy that can play in coverage at LB and picking one up in FA lets you put 3 athletic LBs on the field situationally when you want Bolton out (passing downs, primarily).
Leonard runs a 3-4. You don't have a 3-4 front 7 here. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar:
I think giving up Jones next year would be a mistake. Can't replace everybody in one offseason and expect to have a quality unit next year.
You're not, just underachievers.
Danna, Wharton, Saunders, Sneed, Fenton, Bolton, Gay, Thornhill all stay.
That underachiever mindset is contagious.
That said, I think Jones will be here; I don't think we have a choice, really. He's a great player, when properly motivated. That's just real hit or miss.
And it's not just one game, he's always been like this. He runs real hot and cold. [Reply]
Originally Posted by oldman:
If I figured this right, letting HB, Clark, Reed, and Hitchens go nets about $75M using Reed and Mathieu's currrent cap hits. A good portion of those savings will go to PMII, Jones, Thuney, and Hill. True enough the cap will rise next year, but by how much.
I kept Dirty Dan for $1.5M or so just because he still has that much value in the right package. There's a few other players (Wylie, DOD, Kemp, etc.) with that give us absolutely nothing. Seriously, I never want to see Wylie on the field again. DOD and Kemp are ST players, period. We can get UDFA's to do that. I question whether LDT will even want to play next year. If he does, he's not going to get what he's making here unless some team is desperate.
Reed and Mathieu are FAs after this year…so you aren’t gaining any cap space for letting them leave. [Reply]
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
I love what he brought us but I’m hard pressed to pay almost $20 million for a 30 year old safety.
Unless something drastically changes on this unit and with his quality of play, there's no way they can pay him what he'll want. There's just way too many holes and quite frankly, right now his play isn't justifying it.
You simply don't pay for past performance, especially when it comes to aging defensive players. Unless he steps up big time and carries this unit like he did in the Super Bowl run, he's as good as gone. [Reply]
Tyrann will clearly have to be an unfortunate but necessary, hard cold business decision... paying through the nose for him would be an epic fail [Reply]
This team just proved that it can’t survive with two huge hits on the defensive side. No, Mathieu is not the same as Clark but we’ve been pretty lucky when it comes to Tyrann’s injuries. Plus he’s going to get older and we don’t need to be spending almost $20 million on that. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin:
Same thing we did after 2018. Scrap it all and start over. Complete overhaul. Get young. Get fast.
Keep Fenton, Sneed, Gay, Bolton, Danna, Thornhill. Bulk Jones back up and move him back inside where he belongs. Everyone else can GTFO!
Unfortunately, this is right. Blow it up and start again. The one advantage we have is a full allotment of draft picks and not a ton of extra dead cap than we have this year even after a Clark + Hitchens salary dump. We could easily take $55-$60 mil of cap space into the offseason which could allow us to go after some FA's to build back this roster [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
Leonard runs a 3-4. You don't have a 3-4 front 7 here.
He played in both schemes but yeah, he tends to run the Pettine 3-4. I meant to start morphing the D towards a 3-4 by adding Nichols, Peevy, and Stills as DE types but lost some of my thought process as I was going along (it was late and I was tired and sidetracked). I think it's easier to add 3-4 ERs these days than it is 4-3 but that's my opinion I suppose. I honestly think Willie Gay would make a nice 3-4 OLB as a hybrid guy similar to guys Belichick has used like Van Noy and Collins that can be assets in space and still provide some rush ability situationally, and maybe that would take pressure off finding so many edge rushers, especially if you retain Chris Jones but move him inside a tad more than he's playing at now.
Ogbah may not be the best overall fit as add for ER in that scheme. I'm getting higher on Sam Williams (Miss State) in the draft too as an ER. [Reply]
