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Nzoner's Game Room>Investing megathread extravaganza
DaFace 11:23 AM 06-27-2016
A place to talk about investing stuff.
[Reply]
Buehler445 09:41 PM 11-24-2017
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin:
The RSI on Gamestop is at 25. Typically when the RSI gets below 30 it's in a buy range. That stock has been hammered but it might be at the bottom and a good time to buy. Avg price target I see is from 20-28 with an avg of $24. It's at 17.42 right now. For some reason interest expense doubled in 2017 and revenue went down. Lowest in 5 years. It's gone down every year since 2014. Not very liquid company and no growth.
Both stochastic and Relative strength will get run if there is fundemental pressure. At least in the commodity markets anyway.
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Hog's Gone Fishin 02:22 PM 11-25-2017
Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage:
I'm not sure they'll see much success expanding their core business (Wechat/wepay & QQ) outside of China. As a social media it can't exist without sharing with the gov. That said, probably solid growth still just in China.

As far as games, it's fine. A lot via acquisition. Like Alibaba, they've been tossing money everywhere. Tesla, Snapchat, German flying cars, moon drones, bitauto. It's hard to keep track of


The world's best-performing large-cap stock this year?

It's not a FANG name, but rather Shenzhen-based Tencent Holdings (ticker: 0700.Hong Kong), which trades on the pink sheets in the U.S. ( TCEHY). With a market capitalization exceeding $529 billion, Tencent is now the globe's fifth-largest listed company, bigger than Facebook (FB), and closing in on No. 4 Amazon.com (AMZN). And its stock still looks good.

Tencent is up 125% this year, 732% over the past five years, 4,323% over 10 years, and a split-adjusted 570-fold since its initial public offering in June 2004. A mere $1,764 investment on the day of its IPO would be worth $1 million today.

"It is a stock that everybody loves," says Chelsey Tam, an Internet analyst for Morningstar in Hong Kong. And a gift that keeps on giving. For the past two years, analysts have kept raising their price target, yet no sooner do they hike it, than investors chase it to well above their most optimistic targets. Tam's current target is 492 Hong Kong dollars (US$62.99), or 18% upside after Friday's comeback by the Chinese markets, which had swooned by 3% on Thursday.

How long can the world's most loved stock of the past decade keep surging? "As long as it can continue to deliver on earnings and widen its moat," Tam tells Barron's. She expects Tencent's revenue to grow 60% this year and 53% next year, up from 47% last year. And she sees earnings rising more than 50.4% this year and nearly 40% in 2018. And, unlike Chinese counterparts Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) or global peers Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook, and Amazon, Tencent pays a small dividend.

Think of Tencent as a sprawling tech conglomerate in the mold of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), which is 15% smaller. Tencent is the world's largest interactive gaming company, with titles like League of Legends. It operates China's biggest social network. Tencent Music is China's dominant music-streaming player. Tencent Video looks like YouTube and Netflix (NFLX) rolled into one. And WeChat messenger's billion users make it a tad bigger than Facebook's WhatsApp. Tencent is also boosting its advertising business, taking share from Baidu. Bhavtosh Vajpayee of Sanford C. Bernstein in Hong Kong estimates that Tencent, which had $1.1 billion in ad revenue last year, will have $7 billion by 2019.

The jewel in Tencent's crown is its growing financial-technology business, which includes the WeChat Pay payment system, wealth management products, and insurance and small-business lending operations. And, oh, it has a 5% stake in Tesla (TSLA), owns more than 12% of Snap (SNAP), and reportedly has considered buying a small piece of Twitter (TWTR).

Tencent wants to use Snapchat's platform to expand its gaming business in the developed world, says Morningstar's Tam. It is also interested in teaming up with Tesla to help in its own driverless-car ambitions in China.

WeChat Pay recently got a license to operate a payment and fintech business in Malaysia and wants to do so across the region. The WeChat messaging service is being rolled out aggressively in the United Kingdom, a prequel to expanding the ecosystem to payments and other services there.

Global investors are way underexposed to Tencent, says Catherine Tan, a portfolio manager with Excel Funds in Toronto. Excel, which bought Tencent stock years ago and has had a great ride, isn't about to sell. "Tencent has a solid competitive moat that is illustrative of the strong secular New China growth theme," says Tan, adding that it still has plenty of room to grow.

ASSIF SHAMEEN reports on Asian markets from Singapore.
[Reply]
lewdog 05:39 PM 12-04-2017
Steel Stock (X) closed above $30 today. I'm up 42% on this and debating when I sell it all. It's only been above $40 once in the last 5 years and for only a few months.
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scho63 07:35 PM 12-04-2017
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Steel Stock (X) closed above $30 today. I'm up 42% on this and debating when I sell it all. It's only been above $40 once in the last 5 years and for only a few months.
Follow Hog Farmer now retired....he was the first I think to get in at $20.

I knew and said at the time in a post it was a good investment but I had no free investment capital.

Why not sell covered calls?

For every 100 shares you can sell one call. Sell a call 4 months out-collect about $245 for every 100 shares, giving you equal protection all the way down to $27.40 and max upside of $34.45

X 32 Strike Calls
Exp Apr 20, 2018 BID 2.38 ASK 2.60
[Reply]
Hog's Gone Fishin 08:31 AM 12-05-2017
Originally Posted by scho63:
Follow Hog Farmer now retired....he was the first I think to get in at $20.

I knew and said at the time in a post it was a good investment but I had no free investment capital.

Why not sell covered calls?

For every 100 shares you can sell one call. Sell a call 4 months out-collect about $245 for every 100 shares, giving you equal protection all the way down to $27.40 and max upside of $34.45

X 32 Strike Calls
Exp Apr 20, 2018 BID 2.38 ASK 2.60
Follow me but don't follow me close. I'd let X ride a while longer even though my gut feeling is the whole stock market is getting closer every day for a big correction. X may take a hit but it will give opportunity to buy more.

Here's something thats just so god damn funny : I've really ,really been trying to learn about analyzing stocks. Sectors,fundamentals,momentum,chart analysis ,all of it.

So I picked out about 30 stocks that have made HUGE runs for more than 12 months ,I mean 100 to 400 % up with no dips. Then I nailed down the fundamentals looking at cash flow, debt, growth ,institutional ownership,and ended up with 6 or so that I said ,MAN, this is a no brainer, Going to be easy. I should at least get 30-60 days of really good profit and I'll just watch them daily and move out when it turns.

So I put in 10K. I figure this is my gambling money. well, those stocks are all involved in the tech sector. 2 fucking days after I put in the tech sector takes the biggest decline since 2009. Well, go fuck me , I'm down $2000.

So now I'm in bitcoin stocks and making it back at the same time but it looks like the Feds are going to get into Bitcoin and fuck it all up.

I think i'll just go fishin.
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Hog's Gone Fishin 08:40 AM 12-05-2017
By the way there were 3 different X company directors that bought company stock in September at the 24-27 dollar range. Thats a good sign for X.
[Reply]
lewdog 05:37 PM 12-05-2017
Originally Posted by scho63:
Follow Hog Farmer now retired....he was the first I think to get in at $20.

I knew and said at the time in a post it was a good investment but I had no free investment capital.

Why not sell covered calls?

For every 100 shares you can sell one call. Sell a call 4 months out-collect about $245 for every 100 shares, giving you equal protection all the way down to $27.40 and max upside of $34.45

X 32 Strike Calls
Exp Apr 20, 2018 BID 2.38 ASK 2.60
I first want to thank you for your always very diligent responses and bascially teaching me about options trading from your posts here and in PM's. It's truly been helpful.

So I do understand what a covered call is and let's use this example for my final questions. The downside to writing covered calls is when a stock blows past your strike point. Yes, you get profits from the gains up to your strike point + the premium, but you missed out if that stock price goes through the roof on future gains. Fair enough, and likely worth the risk if you are planning to sell for profits in the near future anyway.

So in your example, if Stock X never gets to the $32 strike point (option not exercised), do I keep the premium ($245) and the option just expires (I keep my 100 shares)? What's to stop a person from just trying to make income off options that expire this way? Say placing this $32 strike point in a covered call, but actually speculating that the stock takes a dip. I collect the premium when this option expires ($245) and then also decide to buy more stock on the dip?

Am I thinking correctly here?
[Reply]
scho63 07:38 PM 12-05-2017
Originally Posted by lewdog:
I first want to thank you for your always very diligent responses and bascially teaching me about options trading from your posts here and in PM's. It's truly been helpful.

So I do understand what a covered call is and let's use this example for my final questions. The downside to writing covered calls is when a stock blows past your strike point. Yes, you get profits from the gains up to your strike point + the premium, but you missed out if that stock price goes through the roof on future gains. Fair enough, and likely worth the risk if you are planning to sell for profits in the near future anyway.

So in your example, if Stock X never gets to the $32 strike point (option not exercised), do I keep the premium ($245) and the option just expires (I keep my 100 shares)? What's to stop a person from just trying to make income off options that expire this way? Say placing this $32 strike point in a covered call, but actually speculating that the stock takes a dip. I collect the premium when this option expires ($245) and then also decide to buy more stock on the dip?

Am I thinking correctly here?
You nailed it! You are correct

If a stock goes nowhere and you keep writing calls that expire, you keep collecting the premium until the option expires. You will only be allowed to write calls on covered positions. Most brokerage firms don't allow naked call writing for individual investors.
[Reply]
lewdog 08:30 PM 12-05-2017
Originally Posted by scho63:
You nailed it! You are correct

If a stock goes nowhere and you keep writing calls that expire, you keep collecting the premium until the option expires. You will only be allowed to write calls on covered positions. Most brokerage firms don't allow naked call writing for individual investors.
I think the light bulb finally clicked fully today. Thanks!

So naked call writing is so dangerous because you own nothing to start. If you placed a strike on X at let's say $32, but the stock actually hits $40, you'd have to go and purchase the stock at $40 on the open market and sell it for $32 right? Thus taking a huge hit because your gains/losses cannot be capped like a covered call on stocks you actually own?
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petegz28 08:34 PM 12-05-2017
You will always make money when selling a covered call. On the option trade itself. Now, if the stock you own drops, well.....you made money on your option trade but you still lose, net-net. Also, if you don't own several hundred shares, you aren't going to really make anything worth a shit writing 1-2 even 3 calls once you account for spread, commissions, etc. And if you get exercised you will pay a fee for that as well. I love the idea of writing options but to me, it's a big $ game. It's like being the "House" in casino terms. You'll make your money little by little by consistently.
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petegz28 08:35 PM 12-05-2017
Originally Posted by lewdog:
I think the light bulb finally clicked fully today. Thanks!

So naked call writing is so dangerous because you own nothing to start. If you placed a strike on X at let's say $32, but the stock actually hits $40, you'd have to go and purchase the stock at $40 on the open market and sell it for $32 right? Thus taking a huge hit because your gains/losses cannot be capped like a covered call on stocks you actually own?
Naked calls are great until the stock goes through your strike. Now the conundrum, if you have 2 weeks left on the option and the stock is above your strike, do you cover or do you wait as long as you can so the time value of your option shrinks possibly allowing you to cover for less? If the stock doesn't keep going up that is.
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petegz28 08:42 PM 12-05-2017
Covered calls are great to lock in some profits, imo. Or, if you want to limit your profit, you can write a call and use the $ to offset buying a put but now you're being ultra conservative and will make minimal $.

If you want to use options for speculation, I like strangles and straddles. All these guys talking about spreads sound fancy but in reality I don't think they come away with a ton of money. When you buy options you're either right or you're not. Writing an option to offset the purchase price of another option well, just makes you feel better about your loss but will also limit your gains.

Then there is the Warren Buffet style of how to use options. When Warren wants to buy stock he writes naked puts. You write the put at the price you are willing to live with on a stock even if it goes below. You collect the premium if the stock keeps going up. If it goes down, you get the stock at the price you want + collect premium.
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BigBeauford 09:09 PM 12-05-2017
We are looking finding a new credit card and possibly bank/checking account. The best credit card i could find id through USAA that gives 2.5% cashback, but i am open to suggestions. What about best checking or savings account?
[Reply]
petegz28 09:16 PM 12-05-2017
Originally Posted by BigBeauford:
We are looking finding a new credit card and possibly bank/checking account. The best credit card i could find id through USAA that gives 2.5% cashback, but i am open to suggestions. What about best checking or savings account?
My Capital One savings account is paying .75%. They have a Money Market that will pay 1.3% on $10k or more. Maybe not the best but definitely better than a lot. And the CapOne Checking account pays .20%....again, not bad
[Reply]
Hog's Gone Fishin 09:21 AM 12-06-2017
X getting a boost today

10:04 AM ET 12/6/17
Symbol Last % Chg
X
31.93 7.04%
Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes

The preliminary found that imports of Chinese steel that is finished in Vietnam are covered by U.S. antidumping and countervailing duty orders on imports from China. As a result of DOC's preliminary decision, U.S. importers of cold-rolled and galvanized steel from Vietnam must make cash deposits equal to the applicable duties. DOC's final decision could be as early as February 2018.

"The Commerce Department's finding of circumvention represents a critical step to shutting down one of the many paths used to flood the U.S. with dumped and subsidized steel. This decision presents an encouraging sign for the steel industry and should put other countries and companies on notice that their cheating will no longer be tolerated. We urge Secretary Ross and President Trump to continue to aggressively crack down on unfairly traded steel imports, including immediate and broad action in the Section 232 investigation on steel imports and national security
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