Originally Posted by BWillie:
The Chargers were 4th in the league in 4th down % last year while being 3rd in attempts. Yet all we hear about is how dumb he was for being so aggressive. Of course the simpletons will always cite some blasphemy like "left points on the table" and other such nonsense but I love how Staley coaches at least strategically. You are going to win some games going for it so often on 4th down, and you are going to lose some games. The focus shouldn't be the result because that will not be statistically significant one way or another in the short term, but in the aggregate it will yield more expected points, higher win percentage when used effectively. You SHOULDN'T coach to keep your job or to appease results oriented fans. You call the game based on the appropriate strategy at each given point to maximize your win percentage probability.
So, are you saying the coach shouldn't make decisions based on what the results will possibly be? I believe that's exactly what they should do. I think they shouldn't coach with the mindset of "If this works I'll be on everyone's top ten list this week!" [Reply]
Originally Posted by raybec 4:
So, are you saying the coach shouldn't make decisions based on what the results will possibly be? I believe that's exactly what they should do. I think they shouldn't coach with the mindset of "If this works I'll be on everyone's top ten list this week!"
As far as whether to go for it on 4th down or kick a FG or punt, the coach should delegate such decisions to a statistical analyst to determine the best decision to achieve the highest win probability. The best leaders and CEOs understand they don't know everything and know when to delegate accordingly.
Imagine I had QQ and got it all in preflop vs AK. I'm a very slight favorite. Over the course of 20 hands I could run bad. I could lose 16 out of 20. If I change my future strategy due to statistical nuance, I would be making a bad decision. A feel based decison not sound in logic.
Furthermore, aggressive play calling on 4th down and in general benefits teams who perform well offensively...and also benefit when playing another very efficient team. If you are playing the Bears or something, you can probably dial it down. These things can all be accounted for in a win probability analysis. [Reply]
Originally Posted by raybec 4:
So, are you saying the coach shouldn't make decisions based on what the results will possibly be? I believe that's exactly what they should do. I think they shouldn't coach with the mindset of "If this works I'll be on everyone's top ten list this week!"
The majority of the population really really struggles with this as well. They think because something happened, it will happen that way again. That is not always the case, and when we have a plethora of historical information we can determine the best decision to make. The margins may be slim. The expected win probability for one decison vs the other may be small. For example, you may be fucked either way. If you punt in tbe 4th quarter, you may have a 10% chance to win the game but you have a greater chance to not lose by as much. But if you go for it you may have a 13% chance to win the game but a greater chance to lose by a large amount. The goal is to win the game. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
The Chargers were 4th in the league in 4th down % last year while being 3rd in attempts. Yet all we hear about is how dumb he was for being so aggressive. Of course the simpletons will always cite some blasphemy like "left points on the table" and other such nonsense but I love how Staley coaches at least strategically. You are going to win some games going for it so often on 4th down, and you are going to lose some games. The focus shouldn't be the result because that will not be statistically significant one way or another in the short term, but in the aggregate it will yield more expected points, higher win percentage when used effectively. You SHOULDN'T coach to keep your job or to appease results oriented fans. You call the game based on the appropriate strategy at each given point to maximize your win percentage probability.
Count me as a "result" fan- I want to win. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Halfcan:
Count me as a "result" fan- I want to win.
If you want to win, you should then focus on decision trees and urge the coach to pick the one that yields the highest win probability. Even if it makes you scared. [Reply]
