Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
We are getting a spike in the homeless population and local jail right now not sure if its the delta or not but jail were all vaxxed, all residents no staff. [Reply]
COVID-19 has been presenting as a common cold since May. So said (6 mins in) Prof Tim Spector, who runs the Zoe Symptom tracker app. Headache, sore throat and runny nose are now the three most common presenting symptoms. There is no loss of smell and cough is only the fifth most common symptom.
Rather than present this for the good news it is, the researchers chose to present it as a warning that people may fail to recognise it. If COVID-19 is becoming more mild in its symptomatology, fewer people will develop severe symptoms and fewer people will die. One of the old circulating common cold coronaviruses, OC43, was thought to have begun as a pandemic strain meaning there is a precedent for such an evolution. If this is the case it is undoubtedly good news.
Is there evidence of this effect in hospital admission data? A simple way to analyse the data is to compare total cases diagnosed in one week with hospital admissions a week later. Taking cases for the week ending 31 May and comparing them to admissions to hospital of already diagnosed cases the week ending 7 June, the hospitalisation rate was 18% for the Alpha variant and only 3.4% for the Delta variant.
It could be argued that this is because older people are not catching the Delta variant (Indian variant), yet. Indeed, models which account for the age difference purport to show that the Delta variant is more dangerous. There have been only 223 total admissions of patients diagnosed in the community since February. Is it really reasonable to conclude that the Delta strain leads to more hospital admissions by age based on such small numbers, especially when the raw data shows it leads to 1/6th of the admissions of the Alpha variant?
The overall percentage of cases that end up in hospital has fallen since the Delta variant became dominant. Furthermore, the slight rise in hospital admissions has not translated into the expected rise in total patients. This means that the length of stay for patients admitted with a positive test is shorter than it was before, again indicating good news.
Claims also continue to be made that the Delta variant is more transmissible. The best real world measure of the transmissibility of a variant is the secondary attack rate: the proportion of contacts that catch the virus from a known case. Much has been made of the higher transmission rate in the Delta variant. The transmission rate of a new variant will, by definition, be higher than the current variant. However, the transmission rate for the Alpha (UK) variant fell from 15% to 8% over the last 6 months at a fairly constant rate independent of the level of vaccination. The transmission rate for the Delta variant peaked at less than 14% and is already falling. The transmission rate need only be slightly higher than the Alpha variant for the Delta to become dominant, as it has, but the other claims about transmissibility have been overblown.
Overall there is minimal real world evidence of the Delta variant behaving in a significantly more transmissible or dangerous way and the symptomatology appears to be becoming more mild.
@AP: As the U.S. emerges from the COVID-19 crisis, Missouri is becoming a cautionary tale for the country: It is seeing an alarming rise in cases because of a combination of the fast-spreading delta variant and resistance among many people to get vaccinated. http://apne.ws/m47ql89
Originally Posted by O.city:
Last he said was all of the young ones. The elderly they had who had been vaccinated all had some type of immunological issue.
So it seems like the rule still stands that a healthy vaccinated person should be okay, right? I have to go to SW Missouri in a couple of months and I don't want to die there. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
So it seems like the rule still stands that a healthy vaccinated person should be okay, right? I have to go to SW Missouri in a couple of months and I don't want to die there.
Latest I saw was 79% efficacy of the mRNA vaccines against the Delta variant, so lower than against Alpha, but still impressive. They reduce the risk of hospitalization after infection with Delta by 96% [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
The mRNA are still in the 90s with delta so I wouldn’t worry
Are you sure about that? They are in the 90s at lowering the risk of hospitalization, but not of developing COVID-19 from what I've read:
According to figures gathered by Public Health Scotland and published in the Lancet, at least two weeks after the second dose of Covid jabs, protection against infection fell from 92% for the Alpha variant to 79% against the Delta variant for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
So it seems like the rule still stands that a healthy vaccinated person should be okay, right? I have to go to SW Missouri in a couple of months and I don't want to die there.
A healthy vaccinated person has an extremely low risk of getting ill enough to require hospitalization let alone dying.
Like I'm guessing lower than the risk of being hospitalized or killed in a car crash during your trip.
And keep your vitamin D3 levels up just to be sure. [Reply]
The big question is does a vaccinated person with no symptoms who tests positive still spread it? Hopefully someone is studying that because it could be very very important. [Reply]
While over 53% of all Americans have received at least one shot, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, most southern and northern Missouri counties are well short of 40%. One county is at just 13%.
Cases remain below their winter highs in southwestern Missouri, but the trajectory is steeper than in previous surges, Frederick said. As of Tuesday, 153 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized at Mercy and another Springfield hospital, Cox Health, up from 31 just over a month ago, county figures show.
These patients are also younger than earlier in the pandemic — 60% to 65% of those in the ICU over the weekend at Mercy were under 40, according to Frederick, who noted that younger adults are much less likely to be vaccinated — and some are pregnant.
He is hiring traveling nurses and respiratory therapists to help out his fatigued staff as the rest of the country tries to leave the pandemic behind.
“I feel like last year at this time it was health care heroes and everybody was celebrating and bringing food to the hospital and doing prayer vigils and stuff, and now everyone is like, ‘The lake is open. Let’s go.’ We are still here doing this,” he said.
There are also warning signs across the state line: Arkansas on Tuesday reported its biggest one-day jump in cases in more than three months. The state also has low vaccination rates. [Reply]
