I tried trading our 2025 1st round pick in a draft simulator and the simulator wildly overvalued the pick, at least in my opinion. I guess the general approach is to value a future pick in the middle of the round, but that assumes no good information about the team's expected finish this coming season. I think it's far more likely that the Chiefs will be finishing near the top than in the middle, let alone the bottom.

This is all in relation to exactly how the Chief's 2025 1st pick should be valued. It's a 1st round pick so it carries the 5th year option like all the other 1st round picks, but it seems very likely to be somewhere close to the last pick of the round, if not the very last. How much should the pick be discounted given that it is in the future? The last pick of the 2024 first round is valued at 590 points in the chart I consult, so if you choose that as your value for the pick, should there be any discount at all considering that it can't possibly get any worse?

What approach do the Chiefs take when considering whether to trade the pick, and what approach do other teams take when considering taking that pick as part of a deal? Any thoughts here?
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