Originally Posted by kccrow:
Just because it may not have a bunch of 6 top-20 picks doesn't mean it isn't deep. If last year proved anything as well, teams are going to overdraft WRs.
I think the basis of my argument with the talent of this class is that I can find near comparisons for most of the top WRs in this group to former 1st round picks. Here are some comps that I think are close.
Quentin Johnston Most closely resembles: Kevin White - 7th overall
Speed, size, agility, he has it all. Easily the best bet to be the 1st WR taken and a potential top-10 pick. Remember Kevin White from West Virginia? That's going back but I like the comp. White busted due to basically destroying his tibia and fibula in back-to-back seasons. Unfortunate because that kid had every ounce of talent in the world and I think Johnston is really close athletically. I don't know if Johnston is as good of a route runner and his hands aren't quite as good.
Zay Flowers Most closely resembles: Jahan Dotson - 16th overall
Just a really good route runner and he's quick. I don't know if he has elite top-end, similar to Dotson. Really good hands. That said, he's going to get open he's likely going to be a quality player. Definite potential to be a Tyler Lockett type.
Jalen Hyatt Most closely resembles: Will Fuller - 21st overall
The ability of Hyatt to take the top off is undeniable. He's an incredible talent. A bit of a linear athlete and has an unrefined route tree. We saw a very similar Jameson Williams go 12th overall last year and Henry Ruggs III only a couple of seasons ago at the same spot. Hyatt is in that range of 15-20 I think.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Most closely resembles: Kadarius Toney - 20th overall
People forget just how absolutely insane this kid is. He puts clown shoes on people. The legitimate concern is he's Kadarius Toney 2.0 in terms of health issues paired with incredible talent. So, I guess we see what the NFL thinks. That's a tough go as an executive. He can play every position but he's best off the line and is elite from the slot.
Jordan Addison Most closely resembles: Hollywood Brown - 25th overall
Acceleration is A+. Route running is A+. So slippery and hard to cover. Like Brown, he's a smaller, wire-frame receiver with an outstanding ability to uncover and make plays. I think top-20 is absolutely on the table but somewhere before the end of the round is a certainty.
Cedric Tillman Most closely resembles: Michael Pittman Jr. - 34th overall
I'm really quite high on Tillman despite my lack of pounding the table for him. Honestly, there may not be a better JuJu replacement where the Chiefs pick if that's the type of WR they want. Anyhow, NFL bloodlines, tough in traffic, amazing hands, and enough speed to make a play down the field. He's not going to juke your shorts off or blaze by you with a 4.3 but he's just a good, consistent, starting NFL WR.
Josh Downs Most closely resembles: Elijah Moore - 34th overall
I don't know if Downs is as fast as Moore but I see a lot of similarities in their ability to work every inch of the field under 10 yards and sneak deep once in a while. Downs was definitely Mr. Reliable when NC needed a play. I think Downs makes his living in the NFL as a slot and, like Moore, ends up a high 2nd round pick.
Tyler Scott Most closely resembles: DeSean Jackson - 49th overall
If there were ever a WR to bet on putting on a show at the Combine, it's probably Scott. He's probably going to be in that Henry Ruggs range for speed, vertical, etc. Scott does more than run deep as he can work the short and intermediate zones and has some wiggle as a former RB. He also does a tremendous job of high-pointing in traffic. I like that he primarily played his snaps on the outside (to the point of almost exclusively) and can win reps. We can argue the value NFL teams put on finding the next DJax as well as speed tends to go high.
There are several 2nd and 3rd round-caliber WRs as well, which really speaks to the depth of the class, not just these guys I figure to be in the conversation for round 1.
I think it's fair to say it's just not as top heavy as you say, but that there's then a reasonable depth of R2, R3 types. That seems comparable to recent years. Can't say I see all of those comparisons though, but that said I think Flowers is better than Dotson. I guess my perspective is there's not a lot of top 20 guys, there IS a lot of "somewhere from top of the 2nd to bottom of the 4th guys"...and so that's probably where I'd be comfortable taking that pick. I think there's a lot more "end of the 1st, beginning of the 2nd" DE types, so that's probably where I'd have that pick going. [Reply]
Why don't you have Jahmyr Gibbs up there? :-). What a horrible pick. There is no way in hell that the Chiefs take a running back in the first round. Not even to convert him to a wide receiver. I like every one of your picks 1000x better than that abortion of a pick in the mock draft. Any one of those would actually make our team better. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jjchieffan:
Why don't you have Jahmyr Gibbs up there? :-). What a horrible pick. There is no way in hell that the Chiefs take a running back in the first round. Not even to convert him to a wide receiver. I like every one of your picks 1000x better than that abortion of a pick in the mock draft. Any one of those would actually make our team better.
I watched youtube Tennessee offense vs. Alabama and Georgia, and I'd be happy if KC took Wright with the first pick. He went up against top pass rushers and did a great job. You can see him lunge and not be technically sound at times, but he got the job done, and with better coaching he should be able to protect Mahomes for the next 5 years. [Reply]
Feel really good that one of those 10 guys will be the pick (assuming they don't trade it or trade up).
The shorter term with Omenihu combined with the relative lack of activity at DT (suggesting he could be moved inside on passing downs) sure points to DE at 31, doesn't it?
Would still be pretty excited over some of these WR options though - as has been noted, the DE group is pretty deep this year and I feel like there will be viable options at 2.
Just depends on how the board falls. Hell, I still think OT is on the table. [Reply]
Todays been boring so far, so I’ll drop a graphic.
For those wanting to spend a high pick on a TE, notice that the 75th percentile outcome (right end of box) for round 1 WR’s is better than all but 3 TE’s, none of whom were drafted in round 1.
I mean for all the "He's Travis Kelce!" talk, he looks more like Noah Grey to me. And frankly, the more I look at him, he is a dead ringer for Trey McBride.
Trey McBride may end up an okay player someday but he ain't gonna be Travis Kelce.
I'm just not seeing a guy I'd take in the 1st at TE this year. And with the draft being awfully deep in similar guys (Musgrave, LaPorta, Kraft, Schoonmaker, Kuntz) I just don't see a reason to be at the front of a run on them.
Let TE come to us. I'd take Musgrave in the 2nd or consider any of the rest of them in the 3rd/4th, board depending, but I cannot talk myself into a 1st round TE at all. Not even a little bit. I'd rather take Gibbs...
I don't think it's terribly likely - but lets say Harrison, Jones and/or Wright are all on the board when we pick.
Harrison gives you that really athletic natural long-term LT. Jones gives you a set and forget RT who probably has little chance to convert to LT (and who's best case scenario is probably Orlando Brown) and then Wright gives you some combination of the two.
I think I still take Harrison. I'm pretty sure I'm out on a 6'8" OT with some weight/feet concerns. Wright is the one that intrigues me - I think he's the one most likely to be the sort of versatile RT we want. With Taylor seemingly ensconced on the left side, I'm less worried about long-term LT prospects. And Harrison may get bullied a bit for a year or so.
I dunno - I really like Wright. He may be the best combination of immediate contributions and long-term ability. A good mix of ceiling/floor. [Reply]
