Just a rundown of some players I like. I'll use the OP as a collection of the posts I've made on them. (Strikethrough means they are returning to school.)
Dawand Jones arrives on draft boards at a difficult time for the Chiefs to potentially draft him. He is not a great fit in Kansas City in both his skillset and current slate of needs. At this exact moment in time, with us on the outside unsure of how likely it is that LT Orlando Brown Jr. may return for future seasons, the Chiefs should be targeting a right tackle with positional flexibility to left tackle, in the off chance their talks with Brown collapse. But Jones is the least positionally flexible in the entire draft: at 6'8", 360 lbs, he is far too long to play guard, and he is not nimble enough to manage left tackle. He is a pure right tackle, and I think he's going to drop in the draft, maybe to Day 3.
If the Chiefs were to take Jones early, however, you can pretty much bet that Brown is locked in for the foreseeable future. Jones is Phil Loadholdt reborn, a mountain of a man that provides just as much nasty as you'd expect. Next to Trey Smith, you'd have the angriest right side of an OL in football. He is as close as you get to a trump card in the run game: he is longer than the guys he's blocking, he's bigger than the guys he's blocking, and he's pretty technically adept for a guy his size. Not enough people talk about a Chiefs OL that is strong against the pass but despite its size, struggles to move people in the run game. Jones is an answer to that.
The question then becomes: do you want two mountainous tackles with slow feet at the same time on the same OL. I don't think we do. He has fantastic arm length, like Orlando Brown, to force the quicker passrushers wide. He also cannot be bullrushed, like, at all -- maybe a bit for now until he gets his technique further down. But his feet are even slower than Brown's. He's going to need a ton of help for at least a good while, and may have to "slim down" to 320 before he's an athlete you can trust on the edge.
Ultimately, this is a guy who can provide some answers for the Chiefs on the right side, and present challenges as well. If he falls to the 4th, I am interested. Earlier than that, and there's just other players who give us more without the hamstringing he's going to come with for a while. [Reply]
There has been a forum-wide debate on retaining Frank Clark in 2023. We've had this debate all season. And I don't know what the correct answer is -- he obviously clears a ton of cap space that his play does not justify. But his presence allows you to speed up the development of younger passrushers, in addition to playing out of his mind in the playoffs. I only discuss Frank Clark this much, because the decision to keep him affects how I feel about going for Derick Hall in the 1st round.
Derick Hall, if this team develops him up to his potential, is the cure for everything this defensive line needs. It needs more dynamism on the edge, with a guy who can provide nonstop motor to provide essentially 50 snaps a game where every passrush has two rushes. The initial explosion and then the hustle as the play drags on. He is faster than all of our defensive ends, and though he is not an ideal Spags size (6'3", 250 lbs), he plays strong as a bull on run downs, not unlike Melvin Ingram. The Tigers dropped him into coverage a lot as well, which Spags doesn't really do but who knows.
The problem is that he's going to need something close to the Dee Ford-esque redshirt year. He has a lot of refinement in his technique left to do, and the potential explodes off the screen. Most of the things he does, however, offensive tackles can find ways to negate. It's possible that, like Dee Ford, he doesn't realize his potential until the last year or two of his contract. He's going to have that degree of a learning curve. Giving him Joe Cullen and a year or two of Frank Clark's tutelage is the recipe here if you're going to spend a 1st. [Reply]
As an Ohio State fan, I can tell you there is absolutely no way whatsoever that Dawand Jones falls to day 3. I don't like his footspeed for this offense but teams like the Steelers, Ravens, Titans, etc are going to love that kid. He's nearly impossible to get around. He struggles with pure speed to the top of the arc (not a positive with Patrick Mahomes) and he struggles when those same types of speed rushers set him up and cross his face. I think you can coach that latter part up some. He might even be looked at as a LT in the same mold as Orlando by the teams I listed. He is absolutely going high 2nd if not the 1st round.
As for Derick Hall, I don't think he has the learning curve you suggest. He's pretty good at using his hands to get into the chest of the defender and playing off of that. He has some work to do with his hands overall but I see him as no less refined than Karlaftis was coming in. [Reply]
CB Nic Jones from Ball State seems like a Veach Value Pick later on. I'd say 5th or 6th-round guy. He's physical, he mirrors and engages the WR at the catch point. Had a really nice week out at the E/W Shrine from what I've read and watched.
S Brandon Hill from Pittsburgh is a guy I kind of like. Decent ball skills, decent hitter. Tries to be an enforcer but he won't be in the NFL. Gets his head around and can play in coverage, including the slot. Might be a good developmental guy. Late type, 6th or 7th round probably. [Reply]
if he's around, i'd take hunter luepke in the 7th. gadgety "fullback" who andy might be able to do something with. good short yardage toughness too. he's nursing a shoulder injury right now though, so maybe that's a bad sign. [Reply]
It's time to start game-planning how to TE Travis Kelce-proof this offense. God forbid any injuries happen, but even if they did, Kelce admitted in an interview that this was the most physically taxing season of his life. It might be time to transition to an offense that needs him as a "1A" or a "1B" for a season or two, before going full Jason Witten and keeping him on-roster as a reliable 2nd or 3rd option until he retires. But this does mean that investments will be necessary. Controversially, I think that means the team needs to consider blue chip running backs. But mostly I think they need to start exploring tight ends, and man-oh-boy does Dalton Kincaid check a lot of boxes.
Now, Kincaid is not a complimentary tight end for Kelce. He's not a guy who will be effective blocking, like TE Blake Bell or TE Noah Gray. Not yet, anyway. For now, he is a pure receiving threat. At 6'4", 242 lbs, he's essentially a big slot, which Kelce-levels of wiggle in his routes and has a gorgeous stride for someone his size. This isn't a guy, like Kelce, that you need to send on traditional in-line routes. He can run, and will be able to run, the entire TE route tree -- and maybe the entire WR route tree as well, depending on his Combine. He has outstanding hands, with a huge catch radius. Again, god forbid anything happens to America's favorite sports podcaster, but Kincaid gets you close to Kelce-proofing the roster. And, lest we forget, he comes from a college program that Andy Reid adores.
He's not Kelce, of course. Kelce is an absolute freak of nature, being as big as he is and still being one of the most athletic tight ends the league has seen. Kincaid is fairly smaller, but he plays way smaller. His blocking is, frankly, really, really bad. It's going to take him a couple seasons to get better there. But they carved out a role for TE Jody Fortson, a bad blocking TE who has good ballskills, this past year. Kincaid has Fortson's hands but better athleticism and upside. If Kincaid blows up the Combine, I'd like to see a 1st spent on him. Aside from that, he fits this roster best as a 2nd. [Reply]
At some point, I would bet my life that GM Brett Veach and TE Travis Kelce have a seat and Veach grills him some on where his body is, how many years do you have left in the tank. Can we keep you as a true focal point of our offense for 20 games for another two or three years? My guess, just based on Kelce's public statements, is that he has one more year of True Focal Point in him. He got the tar beat out of him this year, while having yet another fantastic season. The smartest thing the Chiefs could do is start mapping out a future where Kelce transitions into late-career Jason Witten. Kelce has a couple more years before he is that guy, but better to plan too early than too late. It would be wise to extend his career anyway.
The last time the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, they spent a 1st round pick on a heat check luxury pick that they didn't obscenely need, in RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. That clearly didn't work out, but Luke Musgrave could very well be that pick this year if Musgrave fell to 31 -- or far enough for the Chiefs to trade up. Musgrave is not as athletic as people make him out to be -- he's extremely fast but he lacks Kelce's in-the-box quickness. But the speed he does have is going to be a nightmare if it's properly schemed, and it will be with Andy Reid. Some of the best coverage prospects failed to cover him in the East-West Shrine. And the numbers Musgrave is going to put up at the Combine with a 6'6", well built frame? I'd be shocked if he lasts to 31.
But what does he do for you? He gives you functional blocking with upside to be Kelce-level-decent. If you lose Kelce for a while, Musgrave can replicate a lot of his routes. Musgrave is going to be a red zone threat every single time you're within the 30 yard line, and his catch radius is phenomenal. Musgrave does not look to me like a Travis Kelce, but more of a TE Dallas Goedert, and I think most of us would be extremely satisfied with that performance over the course of his rookie contract. Under Andy Reid, his upside might be even higher. [Reply]
There is an alternate universe where RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire became the back for us that he was for LSU. He offers some fundamentally sound running between the tackles, but is the third down back for eternity, whipping wheel routes and juking angle routes, creating separation in short yardage and chunking off 8 yard gains in near-unstoppable chemistry with Mahomes. Naturally, that never came to fruition, as (I'm guessing) his pass protection was so poor they never put him in obvious pass situations, and his between the tackles running, while initially exceptional, collapsed almost entirely after his injury his rookie year.
But we can rebuild him. We have the technology. And his reborn form would be Jahmyr Gibbs. A fundamentally sound running of a somewhat slight frame to allow him to get in and out of jukes in a hurry, Gibbs' primary talent comes from being effective in the passing game. He seems to have the route-running ability of a slot receiver sometimes, with far more speed upside than Edwards-Helaire had. He has great hands, good feel for zones, and far too much quickness for even the average NFL linebacker. He may be a more slight, but faster version of RB Joseph Addai.
I'm warning you: don't underestimate this as a future Chiefs pick. The Chiefs clearly value this type of running back (some might argue over-value). The Chiefs clearly believe they need this player. McKinnon is the closest we have, and he's entering the offseason as an oft-injured, 30 year old free agent. Edwards-Helaire is literally on the roster now but he's likely to be traded. And the Chiefs clearly value the position so much they were willing to spend a 1st round pick on it in 2020. Now, I don't value this type of RB as much as the Chiefs do, but I'm just a guy in a chair. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs make a move in the 2nd round, though, if he's still on the board. [Reply]
One question: what's the line of scrimmage worth to you? For me, it's everything, especially for a DC Steve Spagnuolo defense that proved that it can unlock its true capability if they take the run away from teams. Smith is not a slam dunk, but he is a good bet to help you get there. A powerful tree trunk of a man with pretty good athleticism, he should test better at the Combine than he actually is, DT Khalen Saunders style.
Saunders, honestly, may be a fair comparison. Smith lacks Saunders on-field speed, but he is far more of a bully in the trenches. He is not moved easily, shows good ability to be a block of granite in short yardage situations, and can still ride a lineman out on stretch runs. He is not your typical phone booth tackle. But he's going to be a bit more limited in that regard in the NFL, because despite his great size, it's written that he doesn't have longer arms -- we'll see what the Combine says. He should still be tough to move, but he may not be able to ride lineman out wide as much as he used to, and he may not command a lot of double teams as a result. Playing style, he reminds me a lot of DT Shaun Smith when we had him for a year. He's thick, plays looser than a guy his size should, and is just completely worthless against the pass.
Comparisons to Saunders and Smith make a good deal of sense, but I do want to be clear: neither one of these guys controlled the line of scrimmage on run downs like this guy does. But that's what you're bringing him in for, and I'll be interested to see reporting on how severe his red flags are after teams continue to interview him on his past. For now, I think he's a 3rd rounder in talent, at a position the Chiefs need. But he could fall out of the draft altogether if teams are spooked by his past. [Reply]
At some point, GM Brett Veach will have to make a determination with TE Travis Kelce. This guy is insanely durable, but how long can he be the focal point of the offense he's been his entire career? Surely he could do it if we needed him to in 2023, and we all know he'd sign up for that. But you want Kelce as long as you can have him. He's a Hall of Fame talent, and the healthier this team can have him for January/February for the next 5-6 years, the better. So it's time to start Kelce-proofing the roster. If you don't have Kelce as your right hand, who can become it? The Chiefs know this as well as anyone, when they reportedly tried (and failed) to go get WR Jameson Williams in the draft last year.
But let me cut to a point I've been making for a couple years now: the Kansas City Chiefs are a fantastic team, but they are nigh unbeatable if they can run the ball effectively. And nobody runs the ball more effectively than the human locomotive that is Bijan Robinson. It is highly unlikely he makes it to 31, but he makes it in about a quarter of the mocks I simulate, so let's play with the idea. He doesn't seem to have 4.3 speed, but 4.4 is not out of the question with his amazing 220 lbs frame. He's a smart, patient runner in the mold of RB LeVeon Bell, and he is twice the receiver Bell ever was. This is a guy who can take the RB Jerick McKinnon role and completely changes the offense with Robinson and RB Isiah Pacheco chewing up defensive lines. Teams will have no choice but to go heavy to stop it, and then QB Patrick Mahomes does the rest. They will go entire games without punting.
The point of football is to win the games. We know the Chiefs are almost impossible to beat with Mahomes under center and an effective run game. So what are we doing? We have the offensive line already constructed, and they made a (talented) 7th round pick look very good. If you line up an elite talent behind that line, you're leading the AFC in rushing yards so long as HC Andy Reid calls them. Mahomes doesn't have to be Superman except when he needs to be, and you've got Kelce as long as you need him. The team cannot avoid considering him if he falls to 31. [Reply]
In the NBA, there was an era with Shaq, with Dwight Howard, and even Tim Duncan, where teams just felt at the mercy of big centers chopping them down in the paint. So teams would go out and try to find big dudes to clog the lane, and sometimes over-invest, just anything to force these teams with powerful centers to beat them any other way. I wonder sometimes if the NFL may end up with the same reckoning as defenses become more athletic to try to take away more active passing games, and offenses inevitably counter with power. How much is taking the run game away worth it?
Your answer to that question is the answer to how valuable you think Benton is. Benton is the answer to "how do I clog up the line of scrimmage." You can run wide to get away from him. You can run sweeps to avoid him. You can pass over him. But you cannot run through him. Long arms, brute force, and absolute technically sound menace over the center, demanding double teams every time an offense thinks they have what it takes to enforce their will and run between the tackles. That's what Benton does, that's what he's good at, and he'll never make a single Pro Bowl ever. But you won't be able to run on him.
The value in that is unmistakable, and as a result, I think he's going to be more attractive to 3-4 teams than he will be to the Chiefs. But I think he has more value than some may give him credit for: the Chiefs have very good linebackers to cover off tackle runs. They have a growing, young secondary that will only get better. By far the weakest spot on the defense by the end of the year was up the gut, to the point where they had to bring in DT Brandon Williams to shore it up. If you can have that brick wall in the middle of your line all year on first- and second-downs, what would you spend to build it? I'd spend a second and sleep easy. [Reply]
The Chiefs enter the offseason along with the rest of the NFL, trying to figure out how to body out its offensive line. The Chiefs are more fortunate than most, with four starters in place, a hole only at right tackle, with a decent swing tackle in OT Lucas Niang. But with OT/G Andrew Wylie and OG/C Nick Allegretti likely moving on (in my humble estimation), the team needs interior depth. And as always, it's not clear what kind of depth on OL the team needs, as the line is full of power lineman, but HC Andy Reid loves athletic guards that can pull and get in space. What does Reid want?
Drafting Cody Mauch will help answer that question, as Mauch is a former tight end with dozens of games playing as a very nimble left tackle, who made is very difficult to ever challenge that outside shoulder and played with a strength and intelligence that, while doesn't seem to me like it will challenge for a Pro Bowl any time soon, he should be ready to play NFL ball sooner than later. It's widely reported that he will transition to the interior, but I want to see how he tests at the Combine first. Along the interior, some technique work and strength conditioning could mold him into a OG Joe Thuney type at guard.
The interior is completely bare if Allegretti walks (unless you have confidence in OT/G Darian Kinnard that I don't currently share). While I don't think Mauch will survive to the 3rd day of the draft, he would be a smart get in round 4, to continue keeping that OL fortified and keeping QB Patrick Mahomes clean. He also gives you a starting option down the line if OG Trey Smith submits contract demands in the coming year that the team simply can't meet. [Reply]
Who's ready to have their time wasted? Because every single word you read in this post, you are reading about a player the Chiefs are not going to be able to take. (The case could be made that every one of my posts is a waste of your time, but this holds especially true here.) I say this in part because Kraft is a talented prospect with a ton of upside that teams will believe they can mold into a smart, dynamic tight end. But I mostly say it because he's from South Dakota State, TE Dallas Goedert's school, and looks and plays exactly like Goedert did as a prospect. And the league just saw Goedert pull jackrabbits out of his hat throughout the Super Bowl. (I hope you got that reference.)
As a result, Kraft is going to show up to the Combine and blow it up, and there are going to be teams as early as the 20s take a good hard look at him. Sure, TE Luke Musgrave and TE Dalton Kincaid are attractive as pure receiving slot TEs. But Kraft can excel in the slot. He will be able to block well with coaching. He can split out, he can find soft zones. He can take manufactured touches, and with coaching he should be able to run clean routes. It's just not often that a 6'6" TE with good size and athleticism comes along who can do everything who looks just like the guy who almost won the Super Bowl for the Philadelphia Eagles. And while he can't do it all now, he definitely looks like he'll be able to.
It probably goes without saying that Kraft is tailor made for the Kansas City Chiefs. They already have a Hall of Fame tight end who is basically a glorified #1 WR, but they could use a more dynamic option at TE outside of TE Noah Gray and TE Jody Fortson who can also get his hands in the dirt and push defensive ends wide of the pocket. Kraft would also be walking into a great situation here, and he'd likely get to be the 3rd (or 4th!) tight end for about half the season and get his legs under him. By Year 2, he'd be eating into TE Travis Kelce's snaps. Does that mean he's a 2nd round pick for us? He probably is for literally every other team in the league. [Reply]