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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>*** 2022 Mock Draft Megathread ***
duncan_idaho 12:45 PM 11-23-2021
Got a mock? Pop it in this thread. Include a picture if you want. Explain your reasoning if you want. Talk about your crushes... if you want.

See a good "pro" mock? Link it up in here and I'll add it to the OP.

Duncan's latest mock

Site
The Draft Network This mock seems to be the most accurate site right now, so I go with this one. I don't pay for it, so no trades here. The plan is for this to be my last mock. I'm going to do it differently, though. I'm running 3 scenarios, and eschewing the 7th round picks, which I would use on a big swings on athleticism and potential. Lotto tickets. James Houston IV is one of them. Note: I used PFF to simulate the trade action, then manually backed up in the 2 "trade" drafts to make selections. Laborious, but gives you best of both worlds, IMO. I think PFF's trade tool is the best, but its board is whack.

Draft slot: 29

Scenario 1: The Chiefs sit pat with their picks and don't make any moves at all. Seems the least likely, but hey...
1.29 | George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue.
1.30 | Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota.
2.50 | George Pickens, WR, Georgia.
2.62 | Travis Jones, DT, UConn.
3.94 | Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State.
3.103(Comp for Poles) | Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State.
4.121 | Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati.
4.135 | Velus Jones, Jr., Tennessee

Scenario 1 Debrief:
So, sitting and waiting to see what comes to me was pretty successful here. The Chiefs FLOOD the defensive line with reinforcements, including at least 1 ready-made starter and two guys who should - at minimum - be in 50/50 rotations at their spots by year end. The Chiefs still get a big outside WR with tantalizing potential. They add some crazy athletic small-school guys, and a mid-round corner who just fits in the system, and a dynamo return man who might be more at WR.

This looks pretty good. Though I have a hard time believing Karlaftis just falls to 29...

Scenario 2: The Chiefs get aggressive and trade up. But for what? In this case, let's go wide receiver. In this run, Kansas City trades picks 29, 62, and a 2023 3rd to Houston for pick 13 and a 2023 4th, because they ARE as obsessed with a WR as people expect and are aggressive to go get him when the board falls right. They then trade BACK from 30 to 35 with the Jets, also including pick 94 in order to get 69 back. Then, last but not least, KC gets aggressive one more time and moves 103 and 121 for 85 from New England, leaving the Chiefs with 6 picks in the first four rounds.
1.13 | Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama.
2.35 | Cam Thomas, DE, San Diego State.
2.50 | Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor.
3.69 | Zachary Carter, DT, Florida.
3.85 | Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss.
4.135 | Jaylen Watson, CB, Washington State

Scenario 2 Debrief:
I'm not saying KC should do this or even that I think they will (more on that in a few minutes). I'm just saying, man, what will it look like if the Chiefs get aggressive a few times AND are doing the big move for a WR? In this scenario, KC obviously believes Williams is a game-changer at the NFL level and is taking a small 2022 hit to make 2023+ better. The defensive line still gets reinforced, but the reinforcements are all a shade worse than the sit-pat draft option. If you like Kingsley Enagbare or Josh PAscal more than Thomas, I get it and wouldn't quibble at one of those guys instead. Logan Hall, too. Pitre is such a screaming perfect fit for KC's D. Carter is a great physical talent you can dream about coaching up. Williams' utility is known and gives them a true RE option to pair against their higher-drafted bigger guy. Watson is a developmental corner.

I don't love it. I think Pitre makes the secondary a lot better and makes it easier to move on from Thornhill after 22. They have improved the defensive rotation, though one of the DEs would need to outperform expectations in Year 1 to get it to the same level as Scenario 1. In all, giving up the 2 extra selections in the top 4 rounds hurts the depth you can build, but I think it's more like what KC will do.

Scenario 3: Same movements as #2
1.13 | Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State.
2.35 | Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State.
2.50 | Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss.
3.69 | Bryan Cook, S, Cincinnati.
3.85 | Martin Emerson, CB, Miss. State.
4.135 | Braxton Jones, T, Southern Utah

Scenario 3 Debrief:
This is the type of situation where I see KC paying the price to move up... if Johnson falls this far, I'd be shocked if KC isn't aggressively moving up. With this run, I take a risky but high upside WR in Watson (but you could sub in Pickens or Jahan Dotson or Tolbert or Metchie or Skyy Moore or really any of those tier 2 guys here if you prefer). The secondary reinforcements aren't flashy but are good fits.

In this one, I think the plan has to become adding either another safety or corner in free agency before the season. Ideally, it's someone who can handle the slot and let Sneed thriver on the outside. The DL gets a major boost and some potential star power in Johnson and Williams, and the OL gets another T option and potential long-term starter to develop.

Having completed the exercise and looking at the scenariors, I like the first one the most. But it really does come down to how the board breaks.

Older mocks
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[Reply]
mkp785 12:08 AM 01-12-2022
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
Iím interested in Williams and/or Metchie shares. Especially since I expect them to sign a free agent WR who can handle #2 duties.
Yeah. That's what I thinking too. Draft Williams and redshirt this year while signing some ring chasing vet or someone who fell off and needs a "prove it" year. Then in 2023 bring in Williams to start make things happen. That'd be perfect as by that time Kelce will be getting older-and Reek may or may not have gotten slower, so another pass catcher will be much needed.

Bonus is that Bama seems to crank out awesome WRs (Julio, Cooper, Smith, Waddle). So Williams def has a great pedigree and should know his stuff. He's expected to regain his 4.3ish speed to after the surgery too.
[Reply]
Chris Meck 07:58 AM 01-12-2022
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
Updated the OP with my new mock.

I end up with two DEs, at least one of which should be able to play heavy snap counts Year 1, and who give me youth and productivity at low cost (hopefully) moving forwards. Love that. Really love that.

I add a larger playmaker at WR, who is versatile and can make RAC plays happen. I like it. Still would need a vet in FA to feel good about WR entering 2023.

I get a starter-caliber LB, and a really promising development swing tackle. Very happy with those.

Not happy with the DB additions. Though I like both guys I land and would cream my pants at adding Bolden in the 7th, I would like to add a S I'm more comfortable sliding into a key role. Guess I'd be trying to make a FA addition to replace Mathieu (or retaining him) in this scenario.

I really like the Hendershot... shot. The Chiefs have extra 7ths and those are perfect fits to throw at someone like him. Talented, with questions. Very little risk (and likely a pick that is roster fodder, anyway).

Love that mock.

I think we need to see what we have with the TE's that we developed this year; Fortson looked like a weapon and Gray has been playing quite a bit if not being targeted all that much.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 10:20 AM 01-12-2022
Originally Posted by mkp785:
Yeah. That's what I thinking too. Draft Williams and redshirt this year while signing some ring chasing vet or someone who fell off and needs a "prove it" year. Then in 2023 bring in Williams to start make things happen. That'd be perfect as by that time Kelce will be getting older-and Reek may or may not have gotten slower, so another pass catcher will be much needed.

Bonus is that Bama seems to crank out awesome WRs (Julio, Cooper, Smith, Waddle). So Williams def has a great pedigree and should know his stuff. He's expected to regain his 4.3ish speed to after the surgery too.
Williams has some strength/frame issues that are a bit worrisome as a long-term #1, but as a #2 here they shouldn't be as pronounced.

I just worry that he's not going to be the sort of physical WR we could really use over the middle. He's a little more like DeVonte Smith in that he's a little on the slighter side.
[Reply]
The Franchise 10:25 AM 01-12-2022
How high does Jerome Ford, RB go in the draft? 3rd round?
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 10:31 AM 01-12-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
How high does Jerome Ford, RB go in the draft? 3rd round?
Could sneak into the late 2nd.

Love the speed and agility but wonder if he will be a good enough pass-blocker/receiver to earn much run here.

I'd consider him with a late 3rd but I'm betting when the pick comes I'll like someone better. In reality I'd probably struggle to grab him before the 4th.
[Reply]
The Franchise 10:34 AM 01-12-2022
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Could sneak into the late 2nd.

Love the speed and agility but wonder if he will be a good enough pass-blocker/receiver to earn much run here.

I'd consider him with a late 3rd but I'm betting when the pick comes I'll like someone better. In reality I'd probably struggle to grab him before the 4th.
Yeah, I figured the pass-blocking would do him in.

I have a feeling that we're not grabbing a RB in this draft anyways.
[Reply]
duncan_idaho 10:49 AM 01-12-2022
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
Love that mock.

I think we need to see what we have with the TE's that we developed this year; Fortson looked like a weapon and Gray has been playing quite a bit if not being targeted all that much.
Yeah, I wouldn't spend more than a 7th on a TE in this draft. Hendershot was just a calculated risk at that point.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Williams has some strength/frame issues that are a bit worrisome as a long-term #1, but as a #2 here they shouldn't be as pronounced.

I just worry that he's not going to be the sort of physical WR we could really use over the middle. He's a little more like DeVonte Smith in that he's a little on the slighter side.
Yeah, he's not the ideal "missing piece" fit (I actually think that's someone like Drake London) for KC, but he's so talented it would be worth a shot if you think you can backfill the WR2 role for all of 2023 with a FA or something.

That's what I like about Doubs. He's a bigger, more physical presence, but he has deep speed, can work inside or outside, and he has RAC skills.
[Reply]
mkp785 12:00 PM 01-12-2022
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Williams has some strength/frame issues that are a bit worrisome as a long-term #1, but as a #2 here they shouldn't be as pronounced.

I just worry that he's not going to be the sort of physical WR we could really use over the middle. He's a little more like DeVonte Smith in that he's a little on the slighter side.
True, he's slight but in this situation he'd have a full season under an NFL weight training program and guys dedicated to increasing his mass while still retaining that speed.

Wasn't he projected to be the 1st WR off the board? If so, that's a great chance for us to steal him. Similar to how we got Justin Houston all those years ago (tho he fell cause of weed).
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 03:02 PM 01-12-2022
Originally Posted by mkp785:
True, he's slight but in this situation he'd have a full season under an NFL weight training program and guys dedicated to increasing his mass while still retaining that speed.

Wasn't he projected to be the 1st WR off the board? If so, that's a great chance for us to steal him. Similar to how we got Justin Houston all those years ago (tho he fell cause of weed).
Banking on a WR who's so depending on speed/explosion recovering that speed/explosion is a pretty iffy gamble.

Set aside the fact that you're realistically getting him for 3 years instead of 4 (nobody comes back at 100% in year 1 and if you're not 100% in this league, you're probably not very good), there's a genuine risk that he just goes the Sydney Jones route and never gets all the way back at all.

Granted, Jones was an Achilles vs. an ACL and the history with ACL's is better, but there are still the Phillip Gaines stories as well.

Some guys just don't bounce back and if Williams doesn't, he's barely even rosterable at that point. He's not a guy with size/physicality to fall back on if his explosion doesn't come all the way back.
[Reply]
TambaBerry 06:35 PM 01-12-2022
The good thing is I think it's finally my turn to draft for the Chiefs. Need to start looking at the prospects
[Reply]
kccrow 08:40 PM 01-12-2022
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
1.25 WR Jameson Williams, Alabama -- Andy Reid loves having the pure speedster WR, and Hardman has fallen out of favor. Williams fits the bill.

2.47. CB Roger McCreary, Auburn -- An extremely scheme-flexible corner to help compensate for the loss of Charvarious Ward, which I think is imminent.

3.85. DE Cam Thomas, San Diego State -- I'm assuming the Chiefs retain Ingram and make a push for Von Miller. The Chiefs need an infusion of talent at DE this offseason, and Thomas has starter upside starting in 2023.

4.120. S Markquese Bell, Florida A&M -- Keeping Mathieu really is a cheat code; all that matters to me, so long as we have him on the roster, is will a new DB be able to make plays. Bell has issues in coverage and in reading plays, but those are correctable with great coaching and leadership. Bell can serve as a good 3rd safety; maybe a starter if Mathieu walks.

[made random pick in the 6th as we do not have a 6th]

7.225. LB Quay Walker, Georgia
-- strongside LB prospect
7.241. CB Storm Duck, North Carolina -- his name tho
I'm rethinking my comment on Cam Thomas earlier in this thread. I really like the kid. He reminds me a bunch of Maxx Crosby. Cam might be better as a prospect and I wouldn't doubt he has a chance to go round 1.

I've been toying with:
1. ER Cameron Thomas, San Diego State
2. DB Jalen Pitre, Baylor
3. WR Khalil Shakir, Boise State

If the Chiefs get an extra 3rd for EB, I'd go Travis Jones, DT, UConn.
[Reply]
mkp785 03:26 AM 01-13-2022
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Banking on a WR who's so depending on speed/explosion recovering that speed/explosion is a pretty iffy gamble.

Set aside the fact that you're realistically getting him for 3 years instead of 4 (nobody comes back at 100% in year 1 and if you're not 100% in this league, you're probably not very good), there's a genuine risk that he just goes the Sydney Jones route and never gets all the way back at all.

Granted, Jones was an Achilles vs. an ACL and the history with ACL's is better, but there are still the Phillip Gaines stories as well.

Some guys just don't bounce back and if Williams doesn't, he's barely even rosterable at that point. He's not a guy with size/physicality to fall back on if his explosion doesn't come all the way back.
Well, we'd obviously have our DRs check him and give us thumbs up/down but if they says it's a go then that's a hard out imo. That's position of need with a guy who has exactly what we look for in our WRs. Bonus being he comes from a school that recently has been as good as any in the country at producing WRs.

Plus, if we're (crossing fingers) drafting at 32, then it's not like guys like Kyle Hamilton or Aidan Hutchinson will be our vincinity to fill our other major needs. We could afford to roll the dice if there's no sure fire AP guy there-which usually is the case that late.
[Reply]
Chris Meck 05:42 AM 01-13-2022
Man, if we get the two extra 3rds for EB and Poles this year AND next, that could seriously go a LONG way to not having to do a tear down and eat it cap year if we draft wisely.
[Reply]
duncan_idaho 08:39 AM 01-13-2022
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
Man, if we get the two extra 3rds for EB and Poles this year AND next, that could seriously go a LONG way to not having to do a tear down and eat it cap year if we draft wisely.
We'd spend at least one of them trading up, IMO.

I'll run a mock this afternoon and pretend I have two comp picks at the end of the third and see what happens with it. Should be fun.

I don't think they'll tear down/eat it any time soon. Will keep pushing that and hope that cap escalation lets you catch up.
[Reply]
duncan_idaho 12:18 PM 01-13-2022
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
We'd spend at least one of them trading up, IMO.

I'll run a mock this afternoon and pretend I have two comp picks at the end of the third and see what happens with it. Should be fun.

I don't think they'll tear down/eat it any time soon. Will keep pushing that and hope that cap escalation lets you catch up.
So, I ran that mock.

Here's what I ended up with:

2.43, 2.63 (trade back with Atlanta for 1.31 and a 7th), 2.61, 3.93, 3.103, 3.104 (projected comp picks for Bienemy and Poles), 4.131, 7.232

Using PFN, I landed, in order:
Travon Walker, DE (i think he plays strongside LE and moves inside on passing downs for KC, think Arik Armstead but more athletic)
Sam Williams, DE
Romeo Doubs, WR
Rasheed Walker, OT (Or the Tulsa kid if you like him more)
RB (Tyler Allgeier, Jerome Ford, Zonovan Knight)
Demani Richardson or Smoke Monday, S
John Metchie (take the risk on him and redshirt him ... can afford it with the extra picks)
Mike Rose, LB

Those extra picks will be handy. It makes redshirting one of Metchie or Williams a lot more do-able.
[Reply]
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