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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Will Ojabo fall further than some think?
BossChief 07:16 PM 04-11-2022
David Ojabos tape last year was very impressive and we have talked endlessly about his fit here and elsewhere. We’ve talked about his ability being a top 15 pick kind of player. We’ve talked about how those guys won’t be in our range in the next decade because Mahomes will always having us in contention for a title so we will be picking at the tail end of the first every year, unless a big trade up is done.

What I’m going to attempt to do is rationalize his actual value in his present state assuming reports that it was a “clean tear” are true and that he shouldn’t miss more than a year before returning to the field. At his age and todays surgeons ability to perform these surgeries more routinely means there’s a reasonable chance he gets to close to full strength in 2023 and possibly on the field before the playoffs this season.

Pick 15 (his perceived value prior to injury) is worth 55.08 points in the Rich Hill chart. That value is based on his attributes and potential NFL upside as a high end edge rusher that would be cost controlled for 5 years as a first round pick. By losing a year due to recovery and rehab, that drops that value, but how do we asses how much it drops by? Every NFL team is trying to find out where he sits on their board with those factors involved.

Here’s where it may get rough for Ojabo:

-He’s a 1 year starter
-He was playing across from a rusher equally or more talented as him
-His game is based on explosion, bend and change of direction blended with power. The injury puts all of those attributes at risk.
-This Edge class has 10 or so pass rushers that can all start playing in their rookie seasons.
-If he’s not worth a 1st, that drops his value by 20% right there by the loss of the 5th year option.
-If he’s worth a second or later, he’s only going to be available for 3 of those years, so that further drops his value to teams as that’s 30 (or more) games he won’t suit up for the team that drafts him. Also, once he’s able to play, there’s no assurance he regains his explosiveness that made him so intriging.

Realistically, you’d have to place his current value at pick 33 (31.24 points) minus 25% (for the loss of the year for rehab) and that brings his value in draft value points down to 23.43 points. Basically the equivalent of pick 44. That might even be viewed by some as a best case scenario of his current value.

That’s figuring that the team that drafts him thinks he can make a full recovery and provide the impact we saw on tape after rehab. That’s a lot to ask and may not be rooted in objective thinking that’s required when managing the type of resources GMs are given to run NFL teams with. Whatever GM takes him will be gambling a big part of his job on that move, especially when a premium pick is used…especially if he’s taken in the first. That’s a “you better be right” kind of swing for the fences.

I don’t see mocks reflecting this drop in value as I still see him going in the first 25-30 picks in most of them.

Should we almost expect him to have a good chance to be there when we pick at 50? Is it possible he falls to the high 50s or even to our pick at 62, with all this taken into consideration? Players with injuries during the process drop significantly sometimes. I guess we will see.
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BossChief 08:59 AM 04-13-2022
Originally Posted by Dante84:
Guys I have a confession to make. I subconsciously avoided reviewing Ojabo's tape until last night because of his achilles tear. It was a non-starter for me, and it was dumb to overlook him until now.

I knew he was a top edge, and had seen one-off random highlights.

But in watching him play last night... the guy has fucking Derrick Thomas upside. I saw multiple plays where I was like, "Goddamn...that looks like DT."

I am more than happy to take a swing on him at 30 or 50 if Veach feels good about it.
I’m glad someone else said it first. His power speed and bend made me think the same thing. The kids going to be a special player if the injury doesn’t strip him of that explosiveness.
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Dante84 09:06 AM 04-13-2022
I mean, just look at this shit.


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The Franchise 09:10 AM 04-13-2022
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
The thing about taking Ojabo is, it kind of forces you to take a high floor DE that can go day one.

I'm down for double dipping, but I don't like being forced to do so.
This.

If the Chiefs draft Ojabo...it's obviously because they felt comfortable with his medicals and how they think he's going to recover. My only issue with taking him is if they neglect the DE position because of that.

If you draft Ojabo...then you HAVE to get a guy who can start from day one....and then you need to grab a vet as well.
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O.city 09:21 AM 04-13-2022
I don't think you can take him with one of the firsts and someone will grab him at the top of round 2 that can sit him and let him recover.
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DJ's left nut 09:21 AM 04-13-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
This.

If the Chiefs draft Ojabo...it's obviously because they felt comfortable with his medicals and how they think he's going to recover. My only issue with taking him is if they neglect the DE position because of that.

If you draft Ojabo...then you HAVE to get a guy who can start from day one....and then you need to grab a vet as well.
If Ojabo and Karlaftis are sitting there at 29/30, you HAVE to do it, right?

You have Karlaftis and Clark as somewhat redundant pieces this year, but at least guys who can be competent for you I would think.

Then next year who have two high-ceiling young guys who are perfectly complementary players who can REALLY do some damage together. A very Neil/DT sort of pairing in terms of their style of play.
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BossChief 09:22 AM 04-13-2022
Originally Posted by Dante84:
I mean, just look at this shit.

The way he attacks the QBs throwing arm is exactly how DT used to wreck opposing offenses.
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The Franchise 09:23 AM 04-13-2022
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
If Ojabo and Karlaftis are sitting there at 29/30, you HAVE to do it, right?

You have Karlaftis and Clark as somewhat redundant pieces this year, but at least guys who can be competent for you I would think.

Then next year who have two high-ceiling young guys who are perfectly complementary players who can REALLY do some damage together. A very Neil/DT sort of pairing in terms of their style of play.
It's all going to depend on that 2nd and 3rd round....but I wouldn't be against it. I'm with BossChief in the fact that I would prefer to have that 5th year if you take Ojabo. But Karlaftis and Ojabo in 2023 would make that DE spot better.
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BossChief 09:29 AM 04-13-2022
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
If Ojabo and Karlaftis are sitting there at 29/30, you HAVE to do it, right?

You have Karlaftis and Clark as somewhat redundant pieces this year, but at least guys who can be competent for you I would think.

Then next year who have two high-ceiling young guys who are perfectly complementary players who can REALLY do some damage together. A very Neil/DT sort of pairing in terms of their style of play.
I’d even be ok with a trade up to get Karlaftis to make this happen. More than anything else this draft, KC needs to come out with a pass rush that can help the secondary and we don’t have anything at DE in 2023. I won’t be surprised if/when we take 3 DEs, either. In fact with this super deep class with nice talents going in the late 3rd and mid 4th, you can’t pass on that value with that positions importance relative to the overall effectiveness of the defense as a unit and it’s relation to helping Pat win games.

Especially with how the AFCW has loaded for bear.
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DJ's left nut 10:00 AM 04-13-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
I’d even be ok with a trade up to get Karlaftis to make this happen. More than anything else this draft, KC needs to come out with a pass rush that can help the secondary and we don’t have anything at DE in 2023. I won’t be surprised if/when we take 3 DEs, either. In fact with this super deep class with nice talents going in the late 3rd and mid 4th, you can’t pass on that value with that positions importance relative to the overall effectiveness of the defense as a unit and it’s relation to helping Pat win games.

Especially with how the AFCW has loaded for bear.
I just love the idea of the AFC West going after these guys who are exiting their primes while the Chiefs re-load with young talent.

Zigging while they're zagging. Again. And some of the stuff they're doing is going to push their competitive window open a bit wider - but for a shorter period of time. Meanwhile this division is going to cannibalize itself and in all probability it's going to be raw dumb luck that determines which of these teams make it through (Paradox of Skill at work).

But one of these 4 teams will have spent the season getting its cap in order and flooding the roster with young talent.

And at least 2 of the other 3 will have burned 1 year of a 2-3 year window with very little to show for it.
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staylor26 10:06 AM 04-13-2022
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
If Ojabo and Karlaftis are sitting there at 29/30, you HAVE to do it, right?

You have Karlaftis and Clark as somewhat redundant pieces this year, but at least guys who can be competent for you I would think.

Then next year who have two high-ceiling young guys who are perfectly complementary players who can REALLY do some damage together. A very Neil/DT sort of pairing in terms of their style of play.
As I’ve said before, Karlaftis and Ojabo is my dream scenario in the 1st.

The rest of the draft would be so much easier having those 2 in the bag to start.
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DJ's left nut 10:15 AM 04-13-2022
Originally Posted by staylor26:
As I’ve said before, Karlaftis and Ojabo is my dream scenario in the 1st.

The rest of the draft would be so much easier having those 2 in the bag to start.
Right.

If Williams slides into the 3rd (since nobody seems to have ANY idea what happens there) you can take him if you want. But if it's him and Austin or Tolbert sitting there, you're not compelled to go any specific direction.

Getting those 2 in the first would open the 2nd up SUBSTANTIALLY. You could go DT/WR, CB/DT, WR/WR - I mean there are a dozen different attacks you could pursue and all of them based exclusively on how the draft board is falling. Hell, if one of those OTs fall you could justify it.

There's just a lot of freedom created by getting those 2 early.
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staylor26 10:16 AM 04-13-2022
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Right.

If Williams slides into the 3rd (since nobody seems to have ANY idea what happens there) you can take him if you want. But if it's him and Austin or Tolbert sitting there, you're not compelled to go any specific direction.

Getting those 2 in the first would open the 2nd up SUBSTANTIALLY. You could go DT/WR, CB/DT, WR/WR - I mean there are a dozen different attacks you could pursue and all of them based exclusively on how the draft board is falling. Hell, if one of those OTs fall you could justify it.

There's just a lot of freedom created by getting those 2 early.
Exactly.
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Chris Meck 06:19 AM 04-14-2022
Originally Posted by staylor26:
As I’ve said before, Karlaftis and Ojabo is my dream scenario in the 1st.

The rest of the draft would be so much easier having those 2 in the bag to start.
I'm not sure I'm sold on Karlaftis. I mean, if they were both there, yeah, I'd probably do it just because if you somehow miss out on a Williams/Thomas type in the second you might be screwed.

I think my dream scenario would be Ojabo, Burks in the first, Pickens and Williams or Cam Thomas in the 2nd.
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Toad 09:00 AM 04-14-2022
Since we are making concessions…
Before diving into the Ojabo highlights a few months ago, I had assumed that his production was mostly benefits from Hutchison being on the other side.

Well, “not so fast” I told myself while reviewing film. Ojabo holds his own. His has a full arsenal of moves and the strip sacks are really impressive.

If the team feels confident in his medicals, he could be an option in the 1st.
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htismaqe 09:41 AM 04-14-2022
Originally Posted by Toad:
Since we are making concessions…
Before diving into the Ojabo highlights a few months ago, I had assumed that his production was mostly benefits from Hutchison being on the other side.

Well, “not so fast” I told myself while reviewing film. Ojabo holds his own. His has a full arsenal of moves and the strip sacks are really impressive.

If the team feels confident in his medicals, he could be an option in the 1st.
If the Chiefs feel confident in his medical condition, so will other teams and he'll go in the 20's. I'm not trading up for a guy coming off an Achilles injury. No way.
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