Well, I'm now on edition number three, so my worry about coming into this one a bit early this year was warranted. As much as I'd like to say this is the final edition, you never know what my tiny little brain will conjure up next. All that said, I'm looking at fortifying the edge and pass rush as a whole as the primary focus of this draft early on, then fortifying the secondary and receiving corps with some depth. I'll sprinkle in some added pieces offensively in hopes they can help keep the machine churning in the future.
So, without further ado, let's kick things off with a big move...
1-6 | ER Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon (6'4" 254) Kansas City trades 1-29, 1-30, 3-94 to Carolina for 1-6
I've been extremely vocal about my desire to move up for a pass rusher in order to provide game-changing talent in the front four. I see a relatively large drop-off to the next tier. Could I be wrong? Time will tell. Either way, I fully expect Veach to get aggressive with those 1st round picks and go get a guy to improve the pass rush. There may not be a better pure pass-rushing talent in this draft than Kayvon Thibodeaux, and the fact there is chatter that he could slide a bit because he's thought of as overly self-centered and arrogant could be to the Chiefs' benefit. Carolina is in a prime spot to trade out of their spot and has even opened that door, especially if one of the top two QB prospects doesn't land in their lap (and I expect they won't with trades). There's not much weakness to Thib's game, as he's a heavy-handed power rusher with a good deal of burst and bend to win the corner. He sets the edge well in the run game too, so he can be a day-one asset. I'll say this, you have to have A+ players in this league to win championships, and it's high time KC goes and gets some in the draft rather than free agency.
From Dane Brugler:
Spoiler!
STRENGTHS: Springy, instinctive athlete with long arms ... speed rush and forward lean softens the outside shoulder of blockers ... excellent flexibility and cornering
skills ... relies on a quick jab step to gain leverage and set up his stab/swipe/rip moves ... able to convert his speed to power ... shows improved timing and nuance
mid-rush, taking away his stab once he sells power to get blockers leaning in space ... rarely locked up thanks to his agile feet, allowing him to miss blockers or
explode on inside moves ... physical vs. the run to hold his ground on the edges and contain ... arrives full-speed at the ball carrier, creating violent collisions ... has a
strategic mind both on and off the field (avid chess player and created his own cryptocurrency, titled $JREAM) ... charismatic individual and a vocal leader with his
teammates ... coaches call him mature and describe him as an “educated information seeker” (head coach Mario Cristobal: “I think he’s a hungry, driven guy.”) ...
highly decorated career and led the Ducks in tackles for loss and sacks each of the past three seasons ... his 35.5 tackles for loss ranked fourth-most in the FBS over
that span (2019-21).
WEAKNESSES: Narrow torso, lean legs and doesn’t have an ideal build by NFL standards ... needs to add more bulk to his body ... still developing his rhythm and plan
at the top of his rush ... needs to improve his finishing skills as a tackler, especially in the pocket ... flows with the action and can be late to dissect play design ...
allowed running backs to separate from him when dropping in space ... plays strong, but stack-and-shed mechanics are just average ... gets himself in trouble with
after-the-whistle plays and needs to play smarter overall (flagged 12 times over his career, including seven times in 2021) ... didn’t face many high-level offensive
tackles in 2021 ... missed two games because of a left ankle sprain (September 2021) ... will rub some the wrong way (NFL scout: “He’s a confident player, but the
arrogance gets old quickly. It’s not an endearing trait.”).
SUMMARY: A three-year starter at Oregon, Thibodeaux lined up as a boundary pass rush linebacker in former defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter’s 3-4 base scheme.
The highest-ranked recruit in Oregon history, he helped the Ducks to three consecutive Pac-12 championship games (two wins) and led the team in tackles for loss
and sacks all three seasons, becoming the fourth unanimous All-American in school history as a junior. Although he needs to continue filling out his frame,
Thibodeaux is physical vs. the run and rushes with upfield urgency and cornering skills to skirt blockers. His go-to move is a powerful jab step that helps open up his
options, but he is still learning how to efficiently patch together his rush moves. Overall, Thibodeaux isn’t a fluid mover, and his impact runs hot-and-cold, but he
understands how to create leverage as a pass rusher with his length, flexibility and hand strength. He draws comparisons to Jadeveon Clowney with NFL teams
and has the talent to develop into a high-end starter if he stays committed.
2-50 | DT Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma (6'4" 290)
Winfrey to me is an absolute wrecking ball coming through the line. He's got suspect eyes to get off the ball, but once that launch button is hit look out because he's coming hard and fast. Drew Boylhart thinks he might make a move to DE in the mold of Marcellus Wiley with the upside to be a Michael Strahan/Bruce Smith type of big end. I'm uncertain of the projection to DE, but as a 3-tech that can wreak havoc? Absolutely. I see Winfrey taking snaps at both end and tackle in KC depending on downs but may settle in at DT in replacement of Chris Jones in time if he doesn't become a terror off the edge first. One thing KC has to do in this draft is increase its sack potential and Winfrey can absolutely do that, plus he has the drive to be great.
From Dane Brugler:
Spoiler!
STRENGTHS: Intimidating size with rare wingspan and length ... plays like a bull in a China shop ... heavy, powerful hands to beat up and displace blockers ... forces his
way through bodies with rip/swipe moves to create his own rush lanes ... able to scrape laterally until he finds the weak spot on the line of scrimmage ... uses his
length to lock out and control blockers ... outstanding effort to chase plays up and down the line ... forceful tackler with outstanding grip strength to finish once he
gets his hands on the ball carrier ... blocked a FG in 2020 ... outstanding backfield production with 40.5% of his tackles occurring in the backfield ... dominant Senior
Bowl performance during the week and earned game MVP honors.
[185]
WEAKNESSES: High cut with lower body stiffness ... below average change of direction skills ... struggles to break down in small spaces (like the backfield), leading to
missed tackles and production left on the field ... too willing to sacrifice his balance for the bull rush, slamming into blockers and ending up on the ground ... plays
with tall pads and allows blockers to get underneath him ... marginal instincts and flows with the action instead of tracking the football ... undisciplined and still
maturing on and off the field (nine penalties in his 23 games at Oklahoma) ... most of his weight is in his upper half ... averaged only 1.9 tackles per game in 2021 and
didn’t have more than three tackles in any game as a senior.
SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Oklahoma, Winfrey lined up at nose guard in former defensive coordinator Alex Grinch’s 3-3-5 base scheme. It was tough to get an
accurate read on him in the Sooners’ slanting front, however, his skills were unleashed at the Senior Bowl and allowed him to show scouts his flashes of dominance.
Winfrey has an imposing frame and length that no blocker wants to deal with, playing with the shock in his hands to jar blockers or toss bodies from his path. His
tendency to play tall and inability to break down and be flexible leads to missed plays in the backfield. Overall, Winfrey needs to improve his pad level and play
discipline, but his size, energy and the power in his hands help him to terrorize blockers. He has NFL starting-level traits.
2-62 | WR Alec Pierce, Cincinnati (6'3" 211)
If the Chiefs are committed to becoming a bigger team at WR to beat zone coverage, then Alec Pierce makes a ton of sense. Despite his speed in shorts, he doesn't create as much separation as you'd like but he's getting better at it. He's tough at the catch point and has sneaky agility in/out of breaks. I'm not worried about this kid learning a bigger, more sophisticated route tree as he was an Academic All-American that finished his degree in Mechanical Engineering in 3-1/2 years. He's also already familiar with some of the concepts the Chiefs deploy. I think, once you polish this kid up, he'll become a very solid X WR in this league that can take the top off from time-to-time.
From Dane Brugler:
Spoiler!
STRENGTHS: Tall, angular frame ... swift strider, and accelerates quickly to stack corners vertically ... accomplished prep high jumper and volleyball player with above-average
high-pointing and leaping skills ... tracks the football naturally downfield ... the game appears to slow down for him at the catch point, allowing him to make
graceful adjustments on the ball ... gives his quarterback a large target thanks to his size and strong hands to finish over defensive backs ... sharp footwork in his
releases to slip past the jam ... played extensively as a gunner on special teams his first two years (seven tackles), and coaches experimented with him at linebacker as
a freshman ... made Bruce Feldman’s annual Freak List and broke Cincinnati’s skill-position record with a 675-pound deadlift ... became fifth player in school history to
earn CoSIDA First Team Academic All-American honors ... named a 2021 team captain ... shows the same competitive fire as both a receiver and blocker ... ranks No. 9
in school history in receiving yards (1,851).
WEAKNESSES: Ran a basic route tree in college ... has worked hard to add good weight but has a lean frame and might be near tapped out ... average play strength
and will have trouble vs. physical cornerbacks ... will use his length too liberally at times when attempting to separate at the top of routes ... average elusiveness, and
didn’t have much YAC on film ... long strider, and will be slow to gather and separate in small spaces ... underwent an arthroscopic procedure on his knee (September
2020) and missed four games; injured left shoulder (October 2020) and required a brace ... only five 100-yard receiving games in 30 career starts.
SUMMARY: A three-year starter at Cincinnati, Pierce was an outside receiver in former offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock’s spread RPO offense. His development
was a slow burn the first three years, including an injury-riddled 2020 season, but he blossomed as Desmond Ridder’s No. 1 option in the passing game as a senior
and led the team in receiving (72.5 percent of his catches the past two seasons resulted in a first down). Pierce is physical to the football, and his heightened focus is
the same at the catch point whether he is wide open or triple-covered. Although he is still honing his route running and separation skills, he is a long, limber athlete
who has the ball skills to consistently win in the air. Overall, Pierce is still adding branches to his route tree, but he is a pass catching weapon who is at his best
vertically with his springy athleticism and ball-tracking skills. He can be a down-the-road starter.
3-103 | CB Jalyn Armour-Davis, Alabama (6'1" 197)
I'm kind of keeping track with my "go for it" attitude from the 2nd round and doing the same here in the 3rd with Armour-Davis. Yes, it's 100% true that you can't play games from the tub and that prior injury history could spell future troubles there. That said, Armour-Davis is a near-elite talent when he's on the field and that's really hard for me to ignore. If he's done being broken, you have a starting-caliber press corner on your hands.
From Dane Brugler:
Spoiler!
STRENGTHS: Checks the height, weight, speed boxes … strong reactive athleticism to break with targets at the top of the route and suffocate catch windows … stays
square and controlled in press-man to mirror different types of receivers … uses his length well to knock the ball out on slants and quick hitters … does a great job
playing through the receiver’s hands and raking the ball out … tracks the deep ball well (allowed only one catch of 25-plus yards in 2021) … flashes burst to close on
crossers, making stops before the sticks … sound high-to-low tackler and collects himself well to finish in the open field … played on every special teams coverage in
2021 … productive final season with three interceptions and zero touchdowns allowed.
WEAKNESSES: Caught on his heels in off-coverage … plays with quickness but could use more twitch in his hips and lower body … despite his timed 4.3 speed, he
struggled to recover on tape after a misstep … needs to be more detailed with his hands and jam technique … there is room for him to tighten his angles and timing to
avoid arriving early (two pass-interference penalties on the games studied) … only one full season of regular work in college … durability is a bright red flag: missed
several weeks as a senior in high school because of a right knee scope (September 2017); was forced to redshirt in his first season because of knee surgery
(September 2018); missed four games as a junior, including a hip injury (November 2021) that sidelined him for the Iron Bowl, SEC championship game, and national
championship game.
SUMMARY: A one-year starter at Alabama, Armour-Davis was the right cornerback in head coach Nick Saban’s scheme, playing both man and zone. After very little
playing time his first three years on campus, he took over the starting job from Patrick Surtain II and earned All-SEC honors with a team-best three interceptions (zero
touchdowns allowed), despite missing four games because of injury. Armour-Davis does a nice job staying in phase in man coverage because of his reactive
athleticism and cover awareness, also showing the grit needed for run support. However, when talking about him to NFL teams, his medicals are the first thing they
bring up, which is something that could affect his draft grade. Overall, Armour-Davis is still developing in areas and must prove he can stay on the field, but he has
the speed, length and overall feel in coverage to play on an island in the NFL. He has the traits of an eventual NFL starter if injuries aren’t a factor.
4-121 | OT Braxton Jones, Southern Utah (6'5" 310)
I've been really high on Braxton Jones for a while now even if he hasn't popped into my mocks in some time. Jones is a guy that you can develop for a year and just might be your starting LT in 2023. If nothing else, Jones should develop into at least a competent swing tackle and might even fight to start at RT. I think the Chiefs need to invest a mid-level pick at the position and there's no player I like more in that range. If he went to a bigger school, I have little doubt he'd be an early day 2 consideration.
From Dane Brugler:
Spoiler!
STRENGTHS: Projectable frame and growth potential with elite arm length ... excellent quickness at the snap to answer edge speed ... adjusts well in space and can
redirect versus inside moves ... shows the same foot quickness in the run game, working well on the outside to reach or scoop block ... uses his upper-body strength
to control defenders ... flashes the grip strength to connect with his hands and drive with his feet ... executes combinations and quickly climbs to the second level ...
the mental part of his game has shown noticeable improvement each season (former OC Matt Wade: “He studies it ... and that bleeds through to that whole group
and makes them all better.”) ... competes with a fierce demeanor and consistently looks to finish ... durable, starting all but one game the last three seasons.
WEAKNESSES: Plays with upright posture and a light anchor ... gets pushed on his heels when he doesn’t sink and use knee-bend ... will forget his feet at times, giving
rushers an opportunity to attack his shoulder ... inconsistent with his pass-set landmarks and needs to better utilize body angles ... plays with inconsistent urgency in
his setup and hand exchange ... his placement and countermeasures aren’t on an NFL level right now ... has room on his frame to continue to fill out and strengthen
his core ... played at the FCS level with only one career game versus a Power 5 program (struggled against Arizona State on his 2021 tape).
SUMMARY: A three-year starter at Southern Utah, Jones lined up at left tackle in former offensive coordinator Matt Wade’s balanced attack. A two-time All-American
at the FCS level, he was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise struggling program as the Thunderbirds managed only six wins in 40 games over the last four
seasons. With his balance and foot quickness, Jones is ascending as a pass protector and is currently a better run blocker, showing the drive strength to create
movement at contact. His bad habits (stopping his feet, letting his pads rise, lowering his eyes) could be masked in the Big Sky, but they left him out-leveraged against
Arizona State and will be magnified versus NFL competition. Overall, Jones needs improved timing, technique and anchor before he is ready for NFL reps, but his
movement skills and length are outstanding foundational traits. Although he’ll require an adjustment period, he has the tools to be a starter down the road.
4-135 | RB Pierre Strong, Jr., South Dakota State (5'11" 207)
Strong is a one-man highlight reel. While he'll be a little older than you like coming into the NFL, at a shade over 23 and 4 months on draft day, I don't care because this league chews up and spits out RBs anyhow. Strong is a dream athletic specimen at the position with a 4.37 40-yd dash, 6.95 3-cone, and an impressive 38" vertical jump. The guy, realistically, reminds me of Jamaal Charles and Charles was electric in Andy Reid's offense when he put up career highs in total yards, touchdowns, and receptions in 2013. I could see Strong flourishing in a similar fashion to Charles with his game-breaking speed and plus ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. If there were ever a RB to hope for in the draft to pair with Reid's style, this is the guy.
From Dane Brugler:
Spoiler!
STRENGTHS: Composed feet between the tackles … sets up his moves and sticks his foot in the ground to cut away from would-be tacklers … has widescreen vision,
and shows a natural feel for lane development … presses the hole before cutting back … outstanding speed on outside zone to create chunk plays and create conflict
for second-level defenders … capable receiver out of the backfield with steady hands (also went 9-for-9 for 208 yards and six touchdowns as a passer in college) …
highly productive and became just the third player in school history to reach 4,500 career rushing yards.
WEAKNESSES: Undersized and lacks ideal build or growth potential … mediocre run power and would benefit from more finishing toughness … inconsistent balance
at contact hinders his ability to break tackles … too easily grounded at first contact … not super elusive in the open field, with hints of stiffness that limit his redirect
skills … fumbled five times as a senior and needs to improve his ball protection … most of his production came vs. FCS-level competition.
SUMMARY: A four-year starter at South Dakota State, Strong was the lead back in former offensive coordinator Jason Eck’s zone scheme. After helping the
Jackrabbits to the FCS title game in the spring of 2021, he led the FCS in rushing as a senior and finished his career No. 3 all-time on the school’s rushing list (4,527
yards). Strong averaged an impressive 7.2 yards per carry during his career, mostly vs. FCS competition, but had no trouble running all over Colorado State on his
2021 tape (his only FBS opponent the past two seasons). He has home run ability when he finds the runway (30 runs of 15-plus yards) and creates conflict for secondlevel
defenders with his ability to shake, rattle and roll. Overall, Strong doesn’t have ideal build or contact balance, which might limit his pro ceiling, but he runs
with speed, tempo and controlled feet to follow his blocks to daylight, especially on outside zone. He has potential as a third-down or committee back in the right
situation.
6-200 | RB(WR) Tyler Goodson, Iowa (5'9" 197) Kansas City trades 7-233, 7-243 to New England for 6-200 (The Chiefs actually traded identical picks to NE in 2018 for pick 198)
As a full-time or even committee RB, Goodson leaves a lot to be desired in the NFL and is probably going to be delegated to rotational duties as a pass-catching back almost exclusively. What I love is he has solid size and plenty of juice. This is a kid that ran a 4.42 40-yard and 6.76 3-cone to go with an outstanding 36.5" vertical. He's shown he can be a good receiver and he has the requisite hand size (9") to be solid in the NFL in that role. My projection? Do the exact same thing with this kid that you did with Tyreek Hill, convert him fully to WR. With Goodson's size, speed, and agility, he could be an absolute nightmare in the slot and might even be able to go full-on outside as Hill did. He has the added ability, with his work at RB, to be a huge factor on sweeps and screens and can even step back into the backfield every once in a while.
From Dane Brugler:
Spoiler!
STRENGTHS: Functional patience and vision at the line of scrimmage, doing a great job locating backside cuts … displays the lateral quickness to juke away from
pursuit without losing steam … has the footwork to competently stutter-and-go … can absorb brushes with defenders and maintain his balance … reads his blocks well
at the second level … doesn’t lose his speed on breakaway runs … solid pass-catching option thanks to his soft hands (only one drop on 38 targets in 2021) … has
experience running routes from the slot or out wide … stayed healthy in his career, and no Big Ten player produced more rushing yards over the past three seasons.
WEAKNESSES: Lean torso and overall frame for the position … not an inside banger, and runs light … braces early for contact and will choose the sideline over
grinding extra yards … bad habit of turning his back into contact instead of lowering his pads … takes too many steps at the line of scrimmage … inconsistent dropping
his hips to smoothly change directions … frantic eyes, and quick to abandon the blocking design … his pass-blocking can be a roller coaster … inexperienced on special
teams coverages … accounted for only one touchdown run in his final 10 games (194 carries) in 2021.
SUMMARY: A three-year starter at Iowa, Goodson saw his carries and impact increase each year in offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz’s zone-based scheme. He led
the Hawkeyes in rushing each of his three seasons in Iowa City, including career bests as a junior, finishing top five in the Big Ten in rushing yards. Goodson has
athletic footwork with adequate vision and patience to work to open space. However, he is too much of a finesse back who struggles to create through contact or
finish in tight quarters. Overall, Goodson has NFL-quality lateral quickness and pass-catching skills, but his average explosiveness and run toughness will limit his
touches at the next level. His best path to an NFL roster spot will be to find a team that values his receiving ability.
7-251 | FS Nazeeh Johnson, Marshall (5'10" 199)
If you want a twitched-up, elite athlete that can compete at FS or NB, then look no further than Nazeeh Johnson. This kid is a mighty mouse at 5'10" and 199 pounds but runs a 4.35 forty, 6.97 3-cone, and had a 42" vertical and 10'9" broad jump. He's the type of player you look at and think he might be able to develop into a faster version of Tyrann Mathieu, which is what I have him as. He's got the tackles, PBUs, and interceptions I like to see from a guy you're going to take a shot on late. Johnson has played CB and FS in his career. Veach has always liked smaller free safeties that can match up in coverage so I see this kid as a potential fit (see going after Earl Thomas when he came on and then snagging Mathieu).
From Dane Brugler:
Spoiler!
SUMMARY: Nazeeh (NAH-zee) Johnson was an all-conference receiver and defensive back at Millbrook High, rushing for 1,093 yards and posting four interceptions as
a senior. He heard from several FCS programs but accepted a preferred walk-on spot at Marshall (put on scholarship in spring 2018). A four-year starter, he rotated
between nickel and free safety and recorded consistent production each season. Johnson plays with outstanding balance in coverage with the athletic twitch to
mirror and make sudden start-stops (his elite testing numbers match his athleticism on tape). He is a solid wrap tackler, although his lack of ideal length and play
strength might be an issue in the NFL. A team captain, the coaches use phrases like “unselfish dude” and “tough as dirt” to describe him. Overall, Johnson lacks ideal
size and will be tardy with his reads at times, but his explosiveness and resilient attitude are traits worth the investment as a nickel defender and special teamer.
7-259 | LB Trey Baldwin, Louisiana Tech (6'2" 235)
I stumbled upon Trey Baldwin later in the process and have ever since been enamored with what I saw on tape. He's not some super-athletic specimen that is going to blow up the RAS stat sheet but he's very productive on the field and has adequate speed. His last two seasons have been 85 TKL, 1 SK, 7 TFL, 1 INT, 5 PD, and 94 TKL, 5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, and 5 PD. He's a bit of an off-the-ball LB for LA Tech and has made some big plays against the biggest competition (Ints against Miami and Miss St). He scrapes across the line well to make plays at the LOS and in space. Once he diagnoses the play, he's decisive and fires downhill, and is a solid tackler with some power in his pads. His coverage is solid enough in man and the intermediate zone to make some plays in the passing game against RBs and TEs.
From Tony Pauline:
Spoiler!
Positives: Instinctive linebacker who plays smart, disciplined football. Explosive, fires up the field, and sells out defending the run. Effectively collapses outside-in when pursuing plays, gets depth on pass drops, and covers a decent amount of area on the field. Hard hitter who drives his shoulders through ball handlers yet remains disciplined with assignments. Breaks down well and throws his body around the field.
Negatives: Lacks great pursuit speed. Easily slowed by blocks. Marginal production in coverage.
Analysis: Baldwin is smart and tough but possesses average size and speed.
Roster Projection
QB: P. Mahomes, C. Henne
RB: C. Edwards-Helaire, R. Jones II, P. Strong Jr, D. Gore
FB: M. Burton
TE: T. Kelce, N. Gray, J. Fortson
WR: J. Smith-Schuster, M. Valdes-Scantling, M. Hardman, A. Pierce, J. Gordon, T. Goodson
OL: O. Brown Jr, J. Thuney, C. Humphrey, T. Smith, A. Wylie, G. Christian, N. Allegretti, A. Reiter, B. Jones
DE: F. Clark, K. Thibodeaux, P. Winfrey, M. Danna, J. Kaindoh
DT: C. Jones, D. Nnadi, T. Stallworth, T. Wharton, K. Saunders
LB: W. Gay Jr, N. Bolton, J. Carter, E. Lee, T. Baldwin
CB: L. Sneed, R. Fenton, D. Baker, J. Armour-Davis, L. Barcoo
DB: J. Reid, J. Thornhill, D. Bush, Z. Anderson, N. Johnson
ST: H. Butker, T. Townsend, J. Winchester [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hoover:
Tyler Goodson is a waste of a pick. Dude doesn't follow blocks, very selfish player. Hawks looked better running the ball in the bowl game when he didn't play. Pass.
Otherwise sign me up!
I don't want him as a RB. I don't like him enough in that capacity. He's kind of an outside runner only and that's pretty limited in the NFL. You have to be able to run between the tackles and bounce it when it's there.
But as a potential slot WR, that's where I like Goodson. I'd love to see Reid convert him like he did Hill. He's dangerous as hell when he's out in space. [Reply]
This is tough too Crow. I wish there was a way we could get Johnson, Wyatt, Pickens, and Williams from your other thread without spending too much capital from next year, but we may have too to pull that off. This one saves on next years picks, but doesn't appeal to me quite as much.
Wyatt just looks so much more explosive than Jones at DT. And Williams looks like the perfect compliment to Johnson at the DE spot. If we only came out with those 4 players out of the first two days of the draft, I think I would be a happy camper. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Coogs:
This is tough too Crow. I wish there was a way we could get Johnson, Wyatt, Pickens, and Williams from your other thread without spending too much capital from next year, but we may have too to pull that off. This one saves on next years picks, but doesn't appeal to me quite as much.
Wyatt just looks so much more explosive than Jones at DT. And Williams looks like the perfect compliment to Johnson at the DE spot. If we only came out with those 4 players out of the first two days of the draft, I think I would be a happy camper.
I think that will depend on how guys fall. Teams spent time with Wyatt not just because he's good but he had some off-the-field stuff to look into and gauge his character. I mean, an altercation with a woman that led to charges that were dropped for family violence, criminal trespass, and damage to property is kind of serious and it was in 2020. Here's a link to a report on the story: https://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...eanor-charges/
Depending on how teams view that could be the difference between him flirting with the top 15 and going near the end of the 1st, or later. He didn't strike or commit any crime directly against the woman but trying to kick her door in may not sit with some teams. With the Chiefs though, Andy gives everyone a chance and he's a legit talent. Absolutely the best DT in the class.
Williams is a guy where I don't really know where he's going to end up. His charge wasn't overly serious and also dropped but it was an offense directly against a woman. Now, based on that type of charge he likely grabbed her ass, her snatch, or some titty and she didn't want that happening. I don't know what it was for sure and it really doesn't matter. The issue is more about it is one step away from raping someone and you don't want that to be a thing. Like Wyatt, I think Williams definitely learned from it, and now that he has a son whom he wants to be a role model is pretty huge. I don't know the dynamics of his relationship with the mother though.
As for football itself with Williams, he's incredibly gifted athletically and he can be very talented on the field. The problem is he takes plays, and series, off. He's not the high motor type you like to see. I think that is the reason his draft grade is suffering and not as much with the off-the-field. He has a 1st round pedigree with 3rd round habits. So, I don't know how teams are going to view him. It seems there is not a consensus on him from the pundits. Some have him ranked in the 40's, some have him in the 90's. There's way too much volatility in his stock for me to say, yeah that looks like a reasonable spot to mock him. If I had to guess, he'll be there at 62 but not there at 94.
So what's all this mean to me? I think you're not getting all 4 guys so you have to pick. I think you'd have to get up to 21 for Wyatt or the Packers are grabbing him at 22. A trade to 21 likely means losing 62 as part of the deal. You can take Pickens at 30 or wait and see if he's there at 50. I don't know if he's there at 50. I have us moving up to 47 for him and that may not get it done. His stock is a little volatile too. Might have to get in front of Chicago at 39. Hell, any team picking in the top 12 picks of the 2nd could take him depending on what many of them do in the 1st.
Honestly, if KC ran a 3-4 right now I think their draft positioning is set up so well to get guys to fit that defensive scheme. I'd probably move up for Wyatt at 21, grab Ebiketie at 30, and then grab Jackson at 50. Figure out WR later. And hell, maybe they do that anyhow and run a slightly undersized 4-3 group or pick Mafe at 30. Wyatt, Mafe, and Jackson wouldn't be a bad haul without breaking the draft pick bank. You're just grabbing WRs in the 3rd and 4th at that point.
Edit: Sorry for the book!!! Just trying to get alot of thoughts out there. [Reply]
I enjoyed the "book" Crow! I absolutely love reading your takes regarding the draft every year, and especially this year considering how important this draft is for our future.
I've actually heard (or read) something about a potential move towards a 3-4 next year a couple of times. Not here either. I kind of dismissed it as just some pundit talking. Be interesting to see if that has any legs come draft day.
Keep your stuff coming! It's much appreciated! [Reply]
Moved Pickens up to 30 and changed the move in the 2nd to be for Perrion Winfrey.
I just don't think Pickens will be there and I have to think KC is highly intrigued by this cat.
As for Winfrey, it's a 2-part decision. One, I don't think Travis Jones slides that far. Secondly, Winfrey is my top pass-rusher projection at DT and while I don't agree with Meck about the value of a high-quality NT early, I do agree with him that targeting a pass-rusher at the position should be a high priority. I like Winfrey's ability to move inside/out and be a chess piece until the Chiefs decide to move on from Chris Jones, which may be as early as next offseason. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Depending on how teams view that could be the difference between him flirting with the top 15 and going near the end of the 1st, or later. He didn't strike or commit any crime directly against the woman but trying to kick her door in may not sit with some teams. With the Chiefs though, Andy gives everyone a chance and he's a legit talent. Absolutely the best DT in the class.
If he tried and failed to kick a door in, maybe he doesn't have the power/burst we need [Reply]
Fuck it, going balls deep in this mock too. I knew releasing this early was a bad idea and I'd change my mind. So here's a bit on why I did it...
I just really think you gotta put your chips down and go get a truly elite talent when you have the ammunition to do it while still retaining a few more darts in the top 100. Sitting idle at 29/30 is noble and could yield a couple of outstanding talents but I just feel like history has shown it is unlikely.
Could this be a draft where you get Eric Stokes and Greg Rousseau? Sure. Is it likely? Not so sure about that. Here's a brief history of the 29th and 30th picks:
2020: OT Isaiah Wilson, CB Noah Igbinoghene
2019: DE L.J. Collier, CB Deandre Baker
2018: DT Taven Bryan, CB Mike Hughes
2017: TE David Njoku, DE T.J. Watt
2016: DT Robert Nkemdiche, DT Vernon Butler
2015: WR Phillip Dorsett, FS/CB Damarious Randall
2014: DT Dominique Easley, FS/CB Jimmie Ward
2013: WR Cordarelle Patterson, LB Alec Ogletree
2012: SS Harrison Smith, WR A.J. Jenkins
If that list doesn't scare you a little bit, then I don't know what does. Of those 18 players, I'd call 5 good or better and that's Watt, Dorsett, Ward (when healthy), Ogletree, and Smith. Of the other 13, a solid 10 were pretty much shit or very subpar for 1st rounders.
I want Veach to push his chips in and go get a guy that's projected to be elite and I'm betting one of Hutchinson, Thibodeaux, or Walker is there at 6. Go get one of them. Could they go 1-2-3? Sure, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Then maybe you don't get so aggressive but I'd go back to my theory on getting a guy at the 11-13 range in Johnson if he's there.
If you can't get those guys, well then by all means sit tight and see what happens. I'll pound the table hard for Ebiketie at that point.
As for the rest, I'm sticking to my guns with Winfrey at 50. I'm enamored with his upside at both DE and DT. No harm in trying him at DE but don't fuck him up like Speaks and leave him out there if it's not looking like it'll work. He can be a force inside, no doubt in my mind.
62 got tricky for me. I really want KC to grab a WR and I'm personally torn between Pierce, Watson (yes I think he's there at 62), and Metchie. Pierce, to me, just offers what the Chiefs seem to be going towards and that's big guys that can beat zone coverage. This was my thought earlier in the offseason, that Reid would navigate towards an offense that could beat zone as teams deploy more of it. I feel like Pierce is a bit of a reach at 62 but I also don't think he's there late in the 3rd either. He's big, he's fast, and he's smart. He can learn routes. I like the kid enough to take that shot. Metchie, he's a guy I think can be a really good slot player in the NFL but I'm not so sure about him outside. Watson is raw but I like his upside. I just don't think he produced enough against subpar competition as an older prospect.
In changing my mock at the top, retaining pick 135 was big for me. I wanted so badly to have Pierre Strong in it but I couldn't take him over Braxton Jones in my prior rendition. I'm putting him in because he's a guy I desperately want KC to end up with (which probably means he ends up a Bronco or Raider...).
I finished this off by changing my sleeper picks in the 7th up. I'm going back to Novil that I had early on at DT. He's going to be a nice player I think as a rotational NT.
I couldn't keep a near 26-year-old in D'Anthony Bell in my projection. He's a long shot to make a team and an even longer shot to get drafted at that age. I wouldn't be averse as a UDFA though. Anyhow, Nazeeh Johnson... I like this kid and I like his coverage. He's tenacious and he gets his hands on the ball a lot. He's an ankle-biter of a tackler but maybe he can grow there as he plays more at safety. You talk about guys that always end up around the football, he's one of those guys.
I was torn though, as I like some upside with a couple of other guys but especially Quandre Mosely out of Kentucky. He's a 6'1" guy at CB that ran a 4.38 and plays good press coverage. I also like Josh Thompson out of Texas as a CB convert to FS. He's fast and lays the hammer but I just don't think he sticks enough in coverage. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Toad:
Normally, I am not a big fan of trade ups AND I kinda let the dream go of having a chance at Jermaine Johnson, but WOW! If we could pull off getting him, Jones and Pickens…I am in like sin.
I'm thinking I wouldn't chase a particular WR in this draft. I'm attacking the DL and defensive backs. I think we have enough guns in the arsenal to make a value pick at WR and take a big swing next year [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
**** it, going balls deep in this mock too. I knew releasing this early was a bad idea and I'd change my mind. So here's a bit on why I did it...
I just really think you gotta put your chips down and go get a truly elite talent when you have the ammunition to do it while still retaining a few more darts in the top 100. Sitting idle at 29/30 is noble and could yield a couple of outstanding talents but I just feel like history has shown it is unlikely.
Could this be a draft where you get Eric Stokes and Greg Rousseau? Sure. Is it likely? Not so sure about that. Here's a brief history of the 29th and 30th picks:
2020: OT Isaiah Wilson, CB Noah Igbinoghene
2019: DE L.J. Collier, CB Deandre Baker
2018: DT Taven Bryan, CB Mike Hughes
2017: TE David Njoku, DE T.J. Watt
2016: DT Robert Nkemdiche, DT Vernon Butler
2015: WR Phillip Dorsett, FS/CB Damarious Randall
2014: DT Dominique Easley, FS/CB Jimmie Ward
2013: WR Cordarelle Patterson, LB Alec Ogletree
2012: SS Harrison Smith, WR A.J. Jenkins
If that list doesn't scare you a little bit, then I don't know what does. Of those 18 players, I'd call 5 good or better and that's Watt, Dorsett, Ward (when healthy), Ogletree, and Smith. Of the other 13, a solid 10 were pretty much shit or very subpar for 1st rounders.
I want Veach to push his chips in and go get a guy that's projected to be elite and I'm betting one of Hutchinson, Thibodeaux, or Walker is there at 6. Go get one of them. Could they go 1-2-3? Sure, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Then maybe you don't get so aggressive but I'd go back to my theory on getting a guy at the 11-13 range in Johnson if he's there.
If you can't get those guys, well then by all means sit tight and see what happens. I'll pound the table hard for Ebiketie at that point.
As for the rest, I'm sticking to my guns with Winfrey at 50. I'm enamored with his upside at both DE and DT. No harm in trying him at DE but don't **** him up like Speaks and leave him out there if it's not looking like it'll work. He can be a force inside, no doubt in my mind.
62 got tricky for me. I really want KC to grab a WR and I'm personally torn between Pierce, Watson (yes I think he's there at 62), and Metchie. Pierce, to me, just offers what the Chiefs seem to be going towards and that's big guys that can beat zone coverage. This was my thought earlier in the offseason, that Reid would navigate towards an offense that could beat zone as teams deploy more of it. I feel like Pierce is a bit of a reach at 62 but I also don't think he's there late in the 3rd either. He's big, he's fast, and he's smart. He can learn routes. I like the kid enough to take that shot. Metchie, he's a guy I think can be a really good slot player in the NFL but I'm not so sure about him outside. Watson is raw but I like his upside. I just don't think he produced enough against subpar competition as an older prospect.
In changing my mock at the top, retaining pick 135 was big for me. I wanted so badly to have Pierre Strong in it but I couldn't take him over Braxton Jones in my prior rendition. I'm putting him in because he's a guy I desperately want KC to end up with (which probably means he ends up a Bronco or Raider...).
I finished this off by changing my sleeper picks in the 7th up. I'm going back to Novil that I had early on at DT. He's going to be a nice player I think as a rotational NT.
I couldn't keep a near 26-year-old in D'Anthony Bell in my projection. He's a long shot to make a team and an even longer shot to get drafted at that age. I wouldn't be averse as a UDFA though. Anyhow, Nazeeh Johnson... I like this kid and I like his coverage. He's tenacious and he gets his hands on the ball a lot. He's an ankle-biter of a tackler but maybe he can grow there as he plays more at safety. You talk about guys that always end up around the football, he's one of those guys.
I was torn though, as I like some upside with a couple of other guys but especially Quandre Mosely out of Kentucky. He's a 6'1" guy at CB that ran a 4.38 and plays good press coverage. I also like Josh Thompson out of Texas as a CB convert to FS. He's fast and lays the hammer but I just don't think he sticks enough in coverage.
I love the move up for Thibs, as I think he'll be there at 6 and Carolina is our best target if we want to move into the top 10. He's throwing ppl off with his off field interests, but w/e Andy won't care about that. The kid can play and unlike sooo many DEs, he actually can play the run too.
Great size and he's tough. He got injured this year and could've sat the season out but he played hurt and still put up numbers.
Hope Veach pulls the trigger. Like Bosschief said both 1sts and next year's 3rd should get it down. Worth it for a potential Khalil Mack. Still can grab a WR (Pickens??) at 50 and get some DBs and LBs with the rest of our picks. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
I like Winfrey a lot more at 50 than Tariq Woolen. Nice mock!
Woolen is just the guy I think they'll draft, not the one I want them to draft. Woolen is a big shot on traits, that's about it at this point. He's got a good deal of learning to do. [Reply]