It's all fun and games on paper, or in the virtual world of a computer.
Reality is different. that's why playing real games as if they were Madden doesn't work out. Check Brandon Staley last season always going for it on 4th and anything. From anywhere. The super computer geeks probably were all in on that. Hell, they were probably in his ear about it.
And he lost that game in epic fashion.
Actually I'm pretty sure he did it in another game last season, and lost that one as well.
No, you play actual games as if they were real. Leave the 'game theory' shit where it should be; in the virtual world. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
It's all fun and games on paper, or in the virtual world of a computer.
Reality is different. that's why playing real games as if they were Madden doesn't work out. Check Brandon Staley last season always going for it on 4th and anything. From anywhere. The super computer geeks probably were all in on that. Hell, they were probably in his ear about it.
And he lost that game in epic fashion.
Actually I'm pretty sure he did it in another game last season, and lost that one as well.
No, you play actual games as if they were real. Leave the 'game theory' shit where it should be; in the virtual world.
Just because he lost and it didnt work doesn't make it the wrong decision. The Chargers were actually very successful on 4th down last year. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Exactly. But if you are a 14 point favorite perhaps your win percentage is 90% and not playing Mahomes brings it down to 80%. Probably not many scenarios to do it in the NFL as margins are slimmer. But in NCAA Football where you have 30+ point favorites it would be prudent to consider especially if there is a big chasm from your starter to second string.
In 2019, his MVP season, Mahomes had a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 7.5 (source: PFF) That means replace him with an average QB and the team wins 7.5 fewer games. Does anyone think Henne is an average NFL QB?
If Henne plays in a game where the Chiefs are favored by 14, our win % doesn't drop from 90% to 80%. It falls off a cliff.
I don't necessaryily think a WAR of 7.5 is gospel, but I also don't think it's wildly inaccurate given our defense that year.
There are analytics nerds who run scenarios and think about these things all the time. But when you have a player with a WAR like Mahomes, the decision about playing him versus resting him because of fear of injury isn't even remotely a discussion.
And what's the point of comparing this to decisions from decades ago about going for it on 4th down? We have the people who are looking at all these facets of the game now and no one is in favor of the strategy you're discussing. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Just because he lost and it didnt work doesn't make it the wrong decision. The Chargers were actually very successful on 4th down last year.
Even if they only lost 1 game because of this aggressiveness then it was the wrong decision. That 1 game cost them a playoff spot. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
I'm just speculating on what a supercomputer with all of the variables would do. It wouldn't be many games but if we were playing at home vs the fucking Jets or something. Yeah probably.
Funny enough, the Jets actually gave Mahomes a hard time in 2020 at Arrowhead. Kansas City was leading 14-9 with 3 minutes left in the 2nd quarter. Chiefs dominated the rest of the way and ended up with a final score of 35-9, but it wasn't looking great for the first 27 minutes of the game. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Exactly. But if you are a 14 point favorite perhaps your win percentage is 90% and not playing Mahomes brings it down to 80%. Probably not many scenarios to do it in the NFL as margins are slimmer. But in NCAA Football where you have 30+ point favorites it would be prudent to consider especially if there is a big chasm from your starter to second string.
but without Mahomes playing, we are a 500 team [Reply]
I want to crush these fuckers so bad. I want something like the Arizona score and another 5 touchdowns, while the defense shows out. I want every talking head on Friday to be gushing about Patrick’s awesomeness. [Reply]
Originally Posted by poolboy:
but without Mahomes playing, we are a 500 team
With Alex Smith we werent. Reid is such a great offensive architect we could still hsve regular season success with an avg QB, we would just get slaughtered when it mattered in the playoffs.
Quite honestly I believe Patrick Mahomes would be most valuable with a shitty coach. Hes the best QB in the league and he could make alot of losing coaches look better. Reids scheme is so good he can make Alex Smith have the highest QB rating in the league..but where Mahomes is so good is on 3rd down and longish.
For example, I believe if last year you put some chode like Baker Mayfield on the Chiefs they may only lose 2 or 3 more games. But if you put Mahomes on the Jets they may win 7 more games. [Reply]