Keith Law’s Mock Draft 1.0
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We’re about six and a half weeks away from the MLB Draft, which would be early for a realistic mock draft in past years, but we’re also already into the Division 1 conference tournaments, with maybe half of the country’s high school baseball schedules already done for the year, so from here on out, it’s going to be a lot more talk than action. The players have played, and with few exceptions, we won’t see most of them again on any fields — they’ll do private workouts for teams, but won’t play in any games we can watch as fans or outsiders.
This is my first mock of 2021, with at least three more to come before we get to the draft on July 11. As always, this is based on what I’m hearing from scouts, executives, and other industry sources, as well as my own reading of specific teams’ preferences and tendencies in the draft. It’s not a ranking — that’s here — and it’s not a commentary on the players. This is just my best guess as to how the first 30 picks, which comprises the first round and the one compensatory pick (Cincinnati, for losing Trevor Bauer) afterwards, would unfold if the draft were held right now.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Still wide open here — Davis, Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, and, with decreased likelihood right now, Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. That’s the rough order of probability of those five names for pick 1-1 right now.
2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX)
I hear two conflicting rumors on Texas. One is that they want someone who can get to the majors fast — Davis or one of the two Vandy arms. The other is that they can’t pass on Lawlar, a local kid with some exceptional tools, and whom team president Jon Daniels is said to have seen in person multiple times.
3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School
I’ve heard Mayer is their main target, and if he’s gone, they could go with the top high school pitcher in the draft, Jackson Jobe.
4. Boston Red Sox: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Red Sox seem to be on Rocker, Leiter, and Davis, and seem extremely likely to get one of them — or perhaps even have a choice among them.
5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School
The current wisdom is that Baltimore will look to cut a deal here that saves them a substantial amount of money, probably a million or more, after they signed their first pick in 2019, Heston Kjerstad, for $2.5 million below slot. They’ve been linked to Brady House, but he has no reason to take that kind of haircut here, since he’s in every mix from here on down.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
They’d love Lawlar, and I would say there’s a non-zero chance he gets here; if Texas takes Rocker or Leiter and Boston takes the other, that probably pushes Lawlar here, with Baltimore likely going under slot.
7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School
House or Jobe here, most likely, with House as their preference. I’ve heard Jobe with them a few times, although it surprises me because the Royals seemed to have abandoned high school pitching up top after the four prep arms they took in the first two rounds in 2014-15 yielded just 0.1 WAR and, so far, only three big-league appearances.
8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School
Colorado takes athletes, and Jobe is a great athlete himself whose father is a longtime professional golfer. I can’t really argue with targeting pitching here, either, although they’re also linked to House.
9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS
The Angels might have a new GM but they’re still linked to the kind of high-ceiling athletes they’ve targeted since Matt Swanson took over as scouting director, including Watson, Bubba Chandler, Jay Allen (probably for the second round), and Jobe.
10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
Before he broke his hand McLain had the best stretch of performances on both sides of the ball that he’d had since matriculating at UCLA, pushing himself into the top half of the round, perhaps even a little higher than this. The Mets seem to be linked more to college players here, like McLain and Boston College’s Sal Frelick, and would go high school with later picks.
11. Washington Nationals: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
I may be overthinking this a little, but I find it hard to believe Mike Rizzo would pass on a starter who can throw 102 mph with a slider that grades out as an 80 in at least some outings. This could be Jobe’s floor, assuming that Mason Denaburg’s injury history hasn’t scared them off high school arms.
12. Seattle Mariners: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
McLain’s floor might be here; you could flip him and Frelick and change nothing else, if that sort of thing makes you happy. I could see Colton Cowser here too.
13. Philadelphia Phillies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land (PA) High School
I’m not sure if this is real, or just because Montgomery is semi-local to the Phillies (although Lonnie White is more local and I don’t hear his name with the Phils). I’ve also heard them as one of a few clubs on Vandy commit Jonathan Vastine as a possible second-round overpay.
14. San Francisco Giants: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
The Giants have taken college players in the first three rounds of each of the last three drafts, and while they’re clearly open to taking high school players (more likely hitters if they do), they’re probably going to have one of Cowser, Frelick, and McLain available here.
15. Milwaukee Brewers: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Wicks has been just fair in Big 12 conference play, with a 4.47 ERA and more hard contact than scouts anticipated, but the consensus is still that he’ll be a solid mid-rotation starter and get there quickly. The Brewers have done pretty well with developing college pitchers, too, so this fit works from a couple of angles.
16. Miami Marlins: Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee (GA) High School
Chandler is committed to Clemson to play quarterback but nobody thinks he’s going to get to South Carolina except as a tourist. He’s in play as high as the Angels and for a number of teams below here, mostly as a pitcher but with a minority of teams liking his bat.
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Originally Posted by TLO:
Is Bubba Starling still with the Royals/ in baseball?
When Omaha Storm Chasers started season -
Outfielders (5): Kyle Isbel, Erick Mejia, Anderson Miller, Edward Oliveras,
Bubba Starling.
Omaha Stats - 17 AB, .176 AVG, .300 OBP, .586 SLG, 2 HR
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