Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
I continue to hope and pray that this thing dies out in the Spring. I know we don't know if that'll happen or not yet, but I've read a few places that since we aren't seeing large outbreak in warmer areas with high humidity, that this could be the case. Even if it only buys us some time until the fall, it could make a world of difference. [Reply]
I'm also hopeful we can keep these spots that have blown up with numbers isolated throughout the country. Dealing with 3 or 4 hot spots would be so much more manageable as opposed to dealing with 100 hot spots at once. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
I'm also hopeful we can keep these spots that have blown up with numbers isolated throughout the country. Dealing with 3 or 4 hot spots would be so much more manageable as opposed to dealing with 100 hot spots at once.
Nope. Millions will contract it.
Millions.
Our only hope is humidity limits its spread. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.
I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.
What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.
Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.
I bet there are a few here that actually believe you are a doctor. And avoid buying Corona beer. Cite your plagiarized source please.
Edit: Never mind. Dr. Abdu Sharkawy. You really need to cite your sources. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
No, I'm not. The mortality rate, with the numbers we have right now, is 3.3%. 105,820 cases and 3,558 deaths.
That’s not a mortality rate. That’s a case fatality rate.
Edit: I could’ve sworn you were a part of the original discussion about this, but as review: mortality rate is the total number deaths to a specific condition divided the total population of measure. Case fatality rate is the number of deaths to a specific condition divided by the number of people who have or have had that condition. They are apples and oranges. One is the probability that any given Joe will die from x, the other is the probability someone with x will die from it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Third Eye:
That’s not a mortality rate. That’s a case fatality rate.
Edit: I could’ve sworn you were a part of the original discussion about this, but as review: mortality rate is the total number deaths to a specific condition divided the total population of measure. Case fatality rate is the number of deaths to a specific condition divided by the number of people who have or have had that condition. They are apples and oranges. One is the probability that any given Joe will die from x, the other is the probability someone with x will die from it.
And the total population of measure in this case is the number of people who have been infected. Or, who "have had that condition."
Anyway, there's no arguing the numbers that 105,000 have gotten this bug, and 3,500 have died from it. And it's much higher than influenza. That's all. [Reply]
My wifes work just imposed an international travel ban within the company and if you do it on your personal time they may quarantine you......this is lovely since we're schedule to go to Cancun in June...
Originally Posted by Donger:
And the total population of measure in this case is the number of people who have been infected. Or, who "have had that condition."
Anyway, there's no arguing the numbers that 105,000 have gotten this bug, and 3,500 have died from it. And it's much higher than influenza. That's all.
I mean, I hate to be that guy, but there’s actually a lot to argue about that. What can’t be argued is that 105K CONFIRMED cases have resulted in 3,500 deaths. I don’t think anyone is doubting that the actual number of infected is much higher. It also seems to have a slower transmission rate. As a result, while it does seem to be more fatal than seasonal influenza, the ultimate mortality rate may end up being similar. Time will tell. [Reply]
Originally Posted by FD:
Too many people are panicking and that is unnecessary and unhelpful, but at the same time there is a big difference between the best-case and worst-case scenarios here. The difference is whether a couple thousand people die or 100,000+ people die. That to me is worth taking seriously, meaning stop treating this as a PR issue that will burn itself out and work to get on top of it before it gets out of control.
We're live to a million people dying in the US if we get 40% infected (rough median of most predictions I've seen) and death rate of 1% (also median). [Reply]
Originally Posted by njchiefs:
Over 6 trillion dollars were “erased” from the stock markets due to the Corona virus fears. Can you imagine if 6 trillion dollars were infused into the health care system, how many would benefit? So yes, wash your hands, but “panic” affects us adversely in many ways.
If we get a collapse like 2008 (-56%) it's going to be -70 trillion. [Reply]
