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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Baker's Dozen of Draft Donuts
kccrow 11:18 PM 03-27-2014
This started out as a bulleted list of things I think about in addressing the draft. I ended up with 13 bullets that reminded me of donuts. Maybe I've had a few too many brews... Feel free to argue with them or add to them.

Rule 1: If you need a starting QB, draft him in round 1.
Don't expect to get one anywhere else. If a QB doesn't have a first round grade, then he isn't likely going to become a starter. The odds go from bad to almost impossible once you get outside the top half of round 2. If you get one outside of round 1, consider yourself extremely fortunate, nearly to the point of you've won the lotto lucky.

Rule 2: Don't draft a backup QB in any round higher than round 4.
Why waste a premium pick on a backup at any position unless he's going to take over for an incumbent starter within two years? With that said, spending a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a QB seldom results in a starting caliber QB. Don't waste the pick.

Rule 3: Never draft an OL in the top 15 picks.
If you're drafting in the top 15, you need skill players that can make an impact for your football team. Get those guys and a serviceable offensive line. The Pittsburgh Steelers are time-tested proof that you don't have to go get lineman really early. Its a myth in the NFL that you need an All-Pro left tackle. It is nice, but far from necessary. Don't go chasing fool's gold. The best teams normally have average tackles, and you can get those types in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Guards can be had in every draft in the 3rd through 5th rounds. Unless he's a plug-and-play immediate starter, don't go chasing after guards early either. I played a long time as a lineman, and I struggle with this one.

Rule 4: Never draft a RB in the first 2 rounds.
There are always a plethora of serviceable backs available in the 3rd round or later of every draft. Additionally, backs have a short shelf life. Don't spend premium picks on a position you have to fill regularly and don't need a super star at to win games in the NFL. Remember, the NFL is a passing league, and passing effectively is the most critical statistic in correlation with win percentage.

Rule 5: Always draft production over potential in Round 1.
The NFL is a win now league, not a wait and see league. The guys that produce generally continue to produce. While you can catch lightning in a bottle, the sure thing is always the best thing. It is critical that round 1 yields a starter, don't waste the pick. Take your chances later. Watch tape, not stop watches.

Rule 6: Don't draft special teams players in the first 3 rounds.
Most of the time, you have 7 picks so why waste the ones you want to try and get starters out of on special teamers? You can fill your roster and get great kickers in round 4-7. Teams that forget this fact hurt their team's growth more often than not.

Rule 7: Draft for Scheme, not for Skills.
You're running a football team that must gel as a single unit. Draft players that fit what you're trying to do as a football team. If you draft players that don't fit because of measurable attributes and then try to adapt to them, you're going to fail.

Rule 8: Always draft to throw the ball or stop the pass first.
If you're a bad team, chances are you can't do either of these effectively. The only way to improve is to do this. Don't adhere to the philosophy that you need to run the ball and stop the run, it's been proven to be false in the NFL for over 25 years. That means you need a QB, WRs, and Pass Rushers before all else.

Rule 9: Draft WRs that run good routes and catch with their hands.
It doesn't really matter how fast they run (to an extent), how high they jump, nor any other metric, what matters most is that they can create separation and catch the ball. Drafting based primarily on speed more often hurts than helps. If in doubt, drafting for size is better.

Rule 10: Draft BPA at a Position of Need.
Never adhere to the philosophy that you draft the best player available, because that simply is not and should not be the case. If you do not have an immediate or near future need for a position, you shouldn't make a pick that won't improve your football team. If you're confident, a trade down attempt should be made. If that fails, improve your team. Remember though, look about 2 years into the future when projecting need. Remember, a player is only a reach in the eyes of pundits. If you need him, he's up on your board, and he fits your scheme, draft him.

Rule 11: Draft DL and OL that get off the snap quickly.
Nothing is more important than how quickly a player can release off the snap of the ball, and these two areas are most critical. To win at the point, you have to be the first to the point. Dumb it way down and think about who wins an arm wrestling match. Gaining initial leverage is everything.

Rule 12: Never draft a LB that can't cover.
No matter the scheme, you give away your defensive tendencies easily by not having LBs that can cover. If you run a 4-3 and you have a thumper at ILB, I'm going to execute the middle zone with crosses and inside hitches all day long. If you have a 3-4 and you rush an OLB most of the time because he is a liability in coverage, I'm going to swing to that flat more often. When you overcompensate to take those things away with other players, it leaves their responsibilities open and I adjust. LBs are undervalued, because they can dictate much of what the defense is able to do.

Rule 13: Draft physical, confident players.
All the athleticism or size in the world matters little if that player's demeanor is wrong. You have to draft physical, confident football players. Physical players show up on tape. If a corner won't stick his nose into a pile and try to take down a running back, don't draft him. I could go on, just make sure the player wants it.
[Reply]
kccrow 07:13 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by Dunerdr:
Production over potential? I'd rather sit a guy a year and he become an all pro rather than start him him always me mike Sanchez.

1. See Aaron Rodgers v. Alex smith college production.
2. See same pro stats.
3. I'll go potential. Fuck you.
Both were productive for the 2 years they started. I don't think you can say one was all that more productive than the other either. That isn't the intent. Pure potential picks on measurable is what the rule really aims at. For instance, the chances of a Dontari Poe working out is very rare. That doesn't mean it can't/won't happen. Obviously, in Poe's case, it did. It is rare that you find a guy that wasn't very good in college, blows up his pro day or even the combine, and then makes it in the NFL. Al Davis was famous for taking players exactly like that, and its a big reason that the Raiders missed on so many picks.
[Reply]
kccrow 07:16 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by OldSchool:
Also, BPA at position of need shouldn't be a rule. Always go with the BPA regardless of need if he is a significantly better football player than your BPA at position of need.

Say you need a starting FS, the only one available to you is rated 35 on your board but there is a Pass Rusher available at your pick that you have rated in the 20s or up to 30, you take the pass rusher vs reaching on the FS even if your pass rush is already set with 2 good starters.

In this draft, that would be like having Jimmie Ward available as the top remaining FS and Kony Ealy is there at 23. You take Ealy without batting an eye.
I get what your saying here, but I might look to TRY to trade down in this case. I would not draft a 4-3 DE skill set to fit a 3-4 scheme, and that is exactly how I feel about Ealy. If I had to make a choice, I'd take Ward. He's the highest rated player that can make an immediate impact for my football team and fits schematically.
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Easy 6 07:50 PM 03-29-2014
Not usually a big fan of #7... nine times out of 10 give me the skills, no matter how they project to a given scheme.
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Bewbies 09:54 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by Saccopoo:
Ball control and field position has a lot to do with that (defensive dominance) and both Okung and Ogden were instrumental in achieving success in those areas on the offensive side of the ball.
What a strange world you live in.
[Reply]
Chiefshrink 11:11 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by Dave Lane:
What about when you have 5 players with the same grade at your pick and you can't trade down?
You can't lose then regardless of what position you take at 23:-)
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kccrow 11:38 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by scott free:
Not usually a big fan of #7... nine times out of 10 give me the skills, no matter how they project to a given scheme.
That doesn't mean you don't draft a good football player. Kony Ealy is a good football player, has nice skills, but he doesn't fit what Kansas City does whatsoever. Why would you draft him? Even if he rates better than any other prospect on your board (which he probably wouldn't be on your team's board anyhow), why would you want to take a player that you can't really use?
[Reply]
Sorter 12:27 AM 03-30-2014
Originally Posted by kccrow:
That doesn't mean you don't draft a good football player. Kony Ealy is a good football player, has nice skills, but he doesn't fit what Kansas City does whatsoever. Why would you draft him? Even if he rates better than any other prospect on your board (which he probably wouldn't be on your team's board anyhow), why would you want to take a player that you can't really use?
I'd argue that Ealy has the ability to play both the RDE from the 7-9 tech as well as sliding inside at the 3 for subs in his first year.

With that selection you provide depth to 2 different spots that receive a high volume of snaps as well as providing insurance at OLB if Hali/Houston suffers an injury.
[Reply]
htismaqe 08:13 AM 03-31-2014
Originally Posted by Sfeihc:
Not that I support Sac in any way but your post proves otherwise.:-)
I see you haven't figured it out either.
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Sfeihc 10:37 AM 03-31-2014
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
I see you haven't figured it out either.
Oh, I've figured a few things out.:-)
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htismaqe 02:43 PM 03-31-2014
Originally Posted by Sfeihc:
Oh, I've figured a few things out.:-)
Have you figured out that a bunch of those guys pictured weren't even drafted by Seattle?
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Sfeihc 02:50 PM 03-31-2014
I was amused by the Jackson pic. A general rule of thumb is when you have to go to Tavaris to support a point it might be best to just not post for awhile. Unless of course if your point is terrible QB's drafted by the Vikings.
[Reply]
htismaqe 02:55 PM 03-31-2014
Originally Posted by Sfeihc:
I was amused by the Jackson pic. A general rule of thumb is when you have to go to Tavaris to support a point it might be best to just not post for awhile. Unless of course if your point is terrible QB's drafted by the Vikings.
:-)
[Reply]
kccrow 04:47 PM 03-31-2014
I'm curious to see someone else throw out the rules they'd go by for comparison. Unless, of course, my rules are that awesome and Sac just wants to throw turds to see what sticks a while longer.
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Sfeihc 05:56 PM 03-31-2014
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I'm curious to see someone else throw out the rules they'd go by for comparison. Unless, of course, my rules are that awesome and Sac just wants to throw turds to see what sticks a while longer.
Welcome to CP.:-)
[Reply]
Bewbies 09:08 PM 03-31-2014
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I'm curious to see someone else throw out the rules they'd go by for comparison. Unless, of course, my rules are that awesome and Sac just wants to throw turds to see what sticks a while longer.
If your rules are:

1. OT is God
2. Always draft random JAG's from Utah

You can draft like Sac.
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