Someone finally put together all of the trade value charts together into one app. I've only been playing around with this thing for a little bit but fuck if it isn't valuable.
That's just a test trade to move up from 31 to 18. You can see the value from each of the charts and at the bottom is the difference along with the value of that difference.
You can also change the discount of future picks and whether that trade up is for a QB. [Reply]
It would have been nice if the teams picks were already a part of it. That way I didn't have to go look up numbers and put them in but for something free...I can't complain too much. [Reply]
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
It would have been nice if the teams picks were already a part of it. That way I didn't have to go look up numbers and put them in but for something free...I can't complain too much.
True. Although I have a Google sheet developed that's similar and lets me select teams via dropdown then check boxes to select the picks. I'd just have to extend it to include the other chart values outside of the Hill model.
From what I've seen in practice, it seems like the Hill model is really close early on (like first 3 rounds), then it tends to deviate more towards the Johnson model.
I might take the time one of these years to actually dive into the historical trades and develop my own but its a project.
I do like a bit of the stuff out there from Baldwin and Fitzgerald on salary cap value effects and things like that but I haven't seen alot in their literature on actual correlation to real trades. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
True. Although I have a Google sheet developed that's similar and lets me select teams via dropdown then check boxes to select the picks. I'd just have to extend it to include the other chart values outside of the Hill model.
From what I've seen in practice, it seems like the Hill model is really close early on (like first 3 rounds), then it tends to deviate more towards the Johnson model.
I might take the time one of these years to actually dive into the historical trades and develop my own but its a project.
I do like a bit of the stuff out there from Baldwin and Fitzgerald on salary cap value effects and things like that but I haven't seen alot in their literature on actual correlation to real trades.
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Overachiever...
I know lol. I'm an accountant so all I do all day outside of use the ledger software is play with spreadsheets. Everything goes in a damned spreadsheet lol. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I know lol. I'm an accountant so all I do all day outside of use the ledger software is play with spreadsheets. Everything goes in a damned spreadsheet lol.
The trade value chart seems off on next years value in compensation. I’ve heard that the value of a pick next is half what it would be this year. And that seems like a ridiculous discount to me. Would you discount a pick by half for next year? For example, say the 49ers offered their first next year for our 2nd and 4th this year, that feels like we are robbing the 49ers? Am I looking at this the wrong way? Why is one year worth half in trade value or a substantial discount? That seems like a bargain and I’d take next years compensation as often as I could. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kcbubb:
The trade value chart seems off on next years value in compensation. I’ve heard that the value of a pick next is half what it would be this year. And that seems like a ridiculous discount to me. Would you discount a pick by half for next year? For example, say the 49ers offered their first next year for our 2nd and 4th this year, that feels like we are robbing the 49ers? Am I looking at this the wrong way? Why is one year worth half in trade value or a substantial discount? That seems like a bargain and I’d take next years compensation as often as I could.
It used to be "Discount by a round"
What I've seen recently is that it's a 20% discount for most teams though it depends on the situation on the ground. The 20% discount is typically presuming that a team that's good/bad in year 1 will be similarly good/bad in year 2.
Though we can look at roster situations and know that not to be the case. So teams will adjust a bit accordingly.
But yeah, the discount by a round thing is largely dead and I've not seen anyone suggest discounting by 50% but it does seem like 20% is a largely accepted baseline at this point. [Reply]
I wonder if it’s the best strategy for the long term to trade for picks in next years draft. If you can get a 30-40% discount for waiting one year, couldn’t that be a way to give us a better advantage? We are always picking at the back end of the draft and the chiefs are a huge disadvantage in acquiring talent. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kcbubb:
The trade value chart seems off on next years value in compensation. I’ve heard that the value of a pick next is half what it would be this year. And that seems like a ridiculous discount to me. Would you discount a pick by half for next year? For example, say the 49ers offered their first next year for our 2nd and 4th this year, that feels like we are robbing the 49ers? Am I looking at this the wrong way? Why is one year worth half in trade value or a substantial discount? That seems like a bargain and I’d take next years compensation as often as I could.
Sometimes it's more than 50%, sometimes it's less. It's usually discounted more the higher in the round you are. Like last year when Arizona and Houston traded, it was like a 65% discount of future picks. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Couch-Potato:
How about #32 + #64 + 2025 2nd = #20 + #52 from PIT?
...we still have TEN 2025 early RD 3 pick.
That's probably the sort of move we'd see Veach make, I agree.
I think next year's 2nd is the most likely asset we have to see moved in this draft and getting up into the early 20s and 50s with it is almost an ideal use of the asset. That puts us right in a nice pocket for a LT and WR with those two picks. [Reply]
Offer Jones $100 this year or $274 next year and his answer will unquestionably be the latter. But offer him a third-rounder this year or a second-rounder next year and he’s likely to think it over a little longer.
