Chargers are going to be the #5 seed with a road trip at Jacksonville wildcard weekend. Chargers finish the year with the Rams and @Broncos which they will win both and finish the year 11-6. Ravens are currently the #5 seed but finish the year with the Steelers and @Bengals. Ravens will lose @Cincy to finish 11-6 as well and Chargers will leapfrog them with the tie breaker for better conference record as Chargers and Ravens did not play head-to-head.

The entire AFC playoff field should be rooting for the Jags to knock off the Chargers wildcard weekend #5 Chargers @ #4 Jags.

My guess for playoff fiield:

#1Chiefs Bye
#7 Dolphins @ #2 Bengals
#6 Ravens @ #3 Bills
#5 Chargers @ #4 Jags

If that holds true I'll be rooting for anyone other than the Chargers coming to Arrowhead in the divisional round. Need the Dolphins, Ravens or Jaguars to win wildcard weekend.
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Maybe I’m being a puss but damnit, these playoffs are going to be a buzzsaw.

(I’m not saying we won’t win, but I’m definitely nervous heading in, as I’m sure all the other teams are too.)
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Dolphins have the 7 seed and the only spot that isn't clinched but they play the Pats & Jets so the two teams right behind them. These AFC East teams are going to beat up on each other the next two weeks.

If Miami loses at New England this week it might blow that race for the 7th seed wide open. If they win they'll probably get it.
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I don't know why Chiefs fans are so scared of the Chargers.
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Hard to beat someone 3 times. I'm not afraid of them at all, all of these teams have talent so there's not going to be a gimme, but there's 0% doubt that game would be a dogfight like every Chargers game always is.
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bosa
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Good thing those teams realize that they will have to possibly play KC. Guarantee that for every team outside of possibly Cincinnati is hoping to avoid the Chiefs.
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Thankfully Jacksonville has already proven this year that they can beat the Chargers. They did it when they still weren’t playing well. They have improved as the season has progressed. That would not be a gimme win for the Chargers.
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The Chargers played the Chiefs very close both games without a healthy Allen and Williams and a healthy Bosa. Both games were a combo of them, but not all three. Lastly they always play KC tough. One of these games will fall the Chargers way.
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A top 5 QB and one of the NFL's top pass rushes isn't enough to be? Matchup nightmare.
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The computer did not like Buffalo's game against Chicago.

Their #1 seed odds fell to 48.5%.

Chiefs increase to 36.8%.

Sounds like the computer thinks BUF/CIN is a tossup, with the Chiefs having a small chance of blowing the one seed in Week 18.
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Irrelevant.
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So after playing around with the ESPN Playoff Machine it looks like:

If the Patriots win their two remaining games the Patriots are in

If the Patriots lose a game but the Dolphins win their two remaining games the Dolphins are in

If the Patriots and Dolphins each lose at least one game and the Jets win their remaining two games the Jets are in

If the Patriots and Dolphins and Jets each lose at least one game and the Steelers win their remaining two games the Steelers are in

If the Patriots and Dolphins and Jets and Steelers each lose at least one game and the Raiders win their remaining two games the Raiders are in

The seedings for 1, 2, and 3 come down to the Buffalo/Chiefs and likely how the Bengals/Ravens game the final week play out as we know

The fourth seed depends on who wins the final game of the season between the Jags and Titans
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Patriots and Dolphins are the two that control their destiny. That's why their game this week is huge. If either of them win out they're in. Everybody else needs help.
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They always play us close and they're getting healthy at the right time.
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