Originally Posted by cdcox:
So of our top 3 safeties:
Thornhill was the best in coverage. He had the fewest targets and the fewest receptions allowed per pass snap. He had 3 interceptions. He had the lowest QB rating when targeted.
Justin Reid had many more targets and allowed more receptions than Thornhill. No interceptions. But Reid tended to play closer to the LOS and did a great job of shutting down the sideways passing game of opponents.
Bryan Cook was a mixed bag. He wasn't targeted often, but when he was, it was very successful. A QB rating of over 145 when targeted. It is a high risk move for him to be the number 2 safety and see a lot of snaps.
Thornhill is replaceable, but you have to replace him. Can you do it with a mid-round draft choice or a free agent? If not, and you can get a friendly deal, he might be worth resigning but only for 2-3 years of effective contract length (could cut him after 2-3 years).
Pretty much this but you cant pay Thornhill what he will get somewhere else. If a reasonable contract is possible, do it. If not, Veach will find us a Div.II prospect in the 4th round that will be an acceptable replacement. [Reply]
Veach and this coaching staff have earned my complete trust with defensive backs. Veach could announce that we had traded all of our defensive backs and I would shrug and wait for him to pull more starters out of nowhere in the draft. They have been consistently outstanding in that positional group. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Already made my argument in the draft forum so I'll just say:
Cook starts with Reid. Sneed continues to be the NB.
Modest FA signing (like retaining Bush) and mid-round draft pick (4th/5th).
Thornhill walks.
Again, this board has a shitty opinion of Cook, and for no reason really. The kid has flashed some big-time ability. I guess people expected he'd supplant Thornhill or something. Thornhill is a pretty fucking solid safety himself.
So let's say Cook replaces Thornhill next year (and remember, this is the path I'd take) - do you think opinions of Cook will be better or worse by mid-season?
I'm guessing worse. He's going to be a little over-exposed in a coverage role.
Now that said, he made a HELL of a play on that deflection/interception. That showed catch-up speed I didn't expect from him against a #1 caliber wide receiver. It was a really good sign. And as you've noted, he was a rookie, so sometimes coverage skills just take a little time to develop. Maybe that was a sign of things to come for a kid who oftentimes looked pretty rough in space this year.
But remember Thornhill as a rookie - he was just a guy who came in almost immediately capable of being a premier coverage safety. The injury and some confidence issues seemed to take a little out of that, but he was fully formed as a single high guy.
And I think that's how most of those true centerfield type FSs emerge. They have it or they don't.
I think you can get by with Cook/Reid back there, but I don't think you're going to run the same defensive backfield responsibilities you're running now. I just don't see Cook as being a single-high FS.
Cook replacing Thornhill will make us less versatile, IMO. I'm willing to go ahead and pay that price, don't get me wrong, but I think he'll be exposed in single high and the 'shitty opinion of Cook' is unlikely to improve greatly among the fanbase. [Reply]
I'd like to keep Juan Thornhill as a Chief, but I don't know if that is possible because of the money.
The top paid NFL safety is Charger's Derwin James at $19M per year. Rounding out the top 5 are Steeler's Minkah Fitzpatrick at $18M per year, Seahawks' Jamal Adams at $17.5 per year, Viking's Harrison Smith at $16M per year, and Bronco's Justin Simmons at $15.25 per year. Not saying that Juan Thornhill is a top 5 Safety, but establishing the upper limit for a safety at this time.
If you go on down the list of safeties and yearly pay average, it looks like Juan might fit somewhere between 30 to 40 on where other teams might want to pay to sign him. Chief's Justin Reid is at 14th at $10.5M. Saint's Tyrann Mathieu is 20th at $9m per year. Cowboy's Jayron Kearse is at 30th at $5M per year. Jet's Lamarcus Joyner is 40th at $2.6M per year. (See https://overthecap.com/position/safety for complete list)
It seems like Juan Thornhill's market value might be anywhere from $5M to $7M per year average.
That may be too much for the Chiefs to pay, so it will be interesting to watch this and see what happens.
Chiefs for sure should try to re-sign him, but if too much, we move on. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Wilson8:
I'd like to keep Juan Thornhill as a Chief, but I don't know if that is possible because of the money.
The top paid NFL safety is Charger's Derwin James at $19M per year. Rounding out the top 5 are Steeler's Minkah Fitzpatrick at $18M per year, Seahawks' Jamal Adams at $17.5 per year, Viking's Harrison Smith at $16M per year, and Bronco's Justin Simmons at $15.25 per year. Not saying that Juan Thornhill is a top 5 Safety, but establishing the upper limit for a safety at this time.
If you go on down the list of safeties and yearly pay average, it looks like Juan might fit somewhere between 30 to 40 on where other teams might want to pay to sign him. Chief's Justin Reid is at 14th at $10.5M. Saint's Tyrann Mathieu is 20th at $9m per year. Cowboy's Jayron Kearse is at 30th at $5M per year. Jet's Lamarcus Joyner is 40th at $2.6M per year. (See https://overthecap.com/position/safety for complete list)
It seems like Juan Thornhill's market value might be anywhere from $5M to $7M per year average.
That may be too much for the Chiefs to pay, so it will be interesting to watch this and see what happens.
Chiefs for sure should try to re-sign him, but if too much, we move on.
I'd do a 3 yr $15 mil contract to keep Juan. Wouldn't do more than $5 mil/yr though. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
So let's say Cook replaces Thornhill next year (and remember, this is the path I'd take) - do you think opinions of Cook will be better or worse by mid-season?
I'm guessing worse. He's going to be a little over-exposed in a coverage role.
Now that said, he made a HELL of a play on that deflection/interception. That showed catch-up speed I didn't expect from him against a #1 caliber wide receiver. It was a really good sign. And as you've noted, he was a rookie, so sometimes coverage skills just take a little time to develop. Maybe that was a sign of things to come for a kid who oftentimes looked pretty rough in space this year.
But remember Thornhill as a rookie - he was just a guy who came in almost immediately capable of being a premier coverage safety. The injury and some confidence issues seemed to take a little out of that, but he was fully formed as a single high guy.
And I think that's how most of those true centerfield type FSs emerge. They have it or they don't.
I think you can get by with Cook/Reid back there, but I don't think you're going to run the same defensive backfield responsibilities you're running now. I just don't see Cook as being a single-high FS.
Cook replacing Thornhill will make us less versatile, IMO. I'm willing to go ahead and pay that price, don't get me wrong, but I think he'll be exposed in single high and the 'shitty opinion of Cook' is unlikely to improve greatly among the fanbase.
Good thing KC transitioned to a two-high safety look this season :-)
Cook was thrown in sporadically this season into a variety of situations from the bench so comparing him to Thornhill who started his rookie year doesn't hold much weight for me. You're comparing a sprinkling of plays to a consistent season of plays. Not only that, Cook didn't perform that differently from Thornhill, who many here are lauding.
One thing cdcox brought up was his rating against.
Well here are some stats for you:
Juan Thornhill allowed 68.1% completions for 13.4 ypc and 9.1 yards per target (105.6 rating)
Bryan Cook allowed 70.0% completions for 13.3 ypc and 9.3 yards per target (138.7 rating)
Do you see the similarity between the entirety of the stats instead of cherry-picking the one stat that makes the guy look worse? [Reply]
poolboy 02-05-2023, 07:19 PM
This message has been deleted by poolboy.
Reason: never mind
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
No ****in' way Thornhill is going to take a 2, 3, or 5 million a year deal.
No way.
ya I voted assuming he'd get around Justin Reid money. No way he's only going to get a 2 year $10 mill deal. If that's the case, keep him for sure. [Reply]
