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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Mock Offseason 12/11
kccrow 09:08 PM 12-11-2018
Been doing alot of thinking since the Le'Veon mock, and maybe too much but here goes it...

Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill: It's imperative to lock up the team's most dynamic player long-term and give Mahomes a weapon for the foreseeable future. Hill must be retained and he won't get cheaper.
5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.097 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00
Notes: Hill will earn the NFL Proven Performance Escalator for the last year of his rookie deal which means his base salary will increase to the Right of First Refusal tender amount. That amount was $1.907 million in 2018 and increases by the percentage the cap increases with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 10%. If the NFL carries through with an approximate 6% increase in the cap, then that base will be $2.02 million, which was used in the 2019 cap estimate.


DL Chris Jones: I've been preaching the same thing Andy Reid mentioned not too long ago: the quickest route to the QB is a straight line and having defensive lineman that can get after them up the middle is better than good edge rushers in today's NFL that sees QBs get the ball out quicker than ever. Jones has stepped up his game considerably and we should project that to continue.
5 years, $81.0m contract extension with $40.0m guaranteed at signing including $20.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.98 2020: 13.00 2021: 15.00 2022: 16.00 2023: 17.00 2024: 16.00

Tags/Tenders

FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.02m
OC Austin Reiter: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.02m (I'm just going to leave this in here until the details of his extension are released)
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus

Acquisitions

CB E.J. Gaines (CLE): A native of Lee's Summit, Gaines may want to return home. Gaines is a solid CB but has an injury history. He should come relatively cheap given that he has missed some games this year after signing a 1 year deal for $4m in Cleveland but he's been very solid when on the field. Gaines can allow Fuller to continue to take over slot duties in 3 CB sets because of his ability on the outside.
3 years/$14m with $5.0m guaranteed and $3.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 3.75 2020: 4.75 2021: 5.50

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): Williams has had alot of injuries throughout his career but he's still extremely young and has flashed what made him a high round pick. He'd make an excellent number two type with solid hands, route running, and blocking ability.
3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

Re-Signings

CB Steven Nelson: Nelson has proven to be a solid CB here in KC as a starter with continued improvement throughout his tenure. If the team can expect him to continue to play as well or better than he has this year then he deserves a re-signing.
4 years/$31.0m with $10.0m guaranteed at signing, and $6.0m signing bonus and another $6.0m guaranteed (salary) if on the roster the 5th day of the 2020 league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.50 2020: 7.75 2021: 8.50 2022: 9.25

ED Dee Ford: Ford has developed into one of the premier edge rushers in the NFL, so letting him go would be a tough pill to swallow. It's a bit scary doing so given his inconsistent history, but if he can hold up physically he should continue to push double-digit sacks annually. That said, re-signing him with the extensions of Hill and Jones will force the Chiefs' hand in the handling of the future salary cap.
5 years/$86.00m with 41.00m guaranteed at signing including a 20.00m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 13.00 2020: 16.00 2021: 17.00 2022: 20.00 2023 20.00

FB Anthony Sherman: Sherman is one of the better fullbacks in the league and is excellent on special teams. His volume of usage offensively gives me pause, but if there's space to sign him then I'd undoubtedly do so.
4 years/$8.4m with $5.0m guaranteed and $2.4m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.00 2021: 2.20 2022: 2.30

RB Spencer Ware: Ware is just a solid all-around back and that makes it difficult to get rid of him. Once he was healthy, Reid immediately turned to him as Hunt's primary backup and he's been nothing but a team player. I think he's brought back on a friendly deal.
2 year/$3.0m with $500k roster bonuses in each year. Estimated Cap Hits: 2019: $1.40 2020: 1.60

All PS on Minimal Deals that likely don't affect Top-51.
I'm sure we'll see a couple low-key FA D-Line signings that are easy on the cap as usual.

Let Walk

DE Allen Bailey, CB Orlando Scandrick, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Damien Williams, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OLB Frank Zombo, ILB Terrence Smith, WR Chris Conley

Cuts
SS Eric Berry - June 1st Designation: The Chiefs will have to make tough choices over the next couple of seasons if they want to retain players that are actually performing on the field (see Tyreek Hill, Chris Jones, Dee Ford especially) so, despite the woes at safety, it's time to move on.

Draft

Chiefs trade 2018 1st round pick and 2018 2nd round pick to move up to the 20th overall selection.
Chiefs have a projected 6th round compensatory selection for Bennie Logan.

1. ILB Mack Wilson, Alabama (6'1" 235)
It has become overwhelmingly apparent that the Chiefs must address the situation at ILB going into 2019 and the best way to do that may just be in the draft. Getting a young player that can cover while still having the ability to come downhill in the run game and be a 3-down player is paramount. Wilson is the best coverage linebacker in the draft and has shown a penchant for laying the wood as well. The Chiefs need a tone-setter and a defensive captain, and Wilson is that guy.
2. DT Isaiah Buggs, Alabama (6'5" 290)
Double-dipping from Alabama here, but Buggs is an impressive 2-year JUCO transfer that has been lights out the past 2 seasons. He really developed in his senior year, getting 9.5 sacks. This guy consistently pushes the pocket in 1-on-1 match-ups with outstanding strength and solid technique. He's got that big bubble ass you look for in an interior defensive lineman, and he also uses it follow through on his tackles and crush people.
3. SS Khari Willis, Michigan State (6'1" 215)
Another guy that will come down hill and smack people, I think you're seeing the theme here. This defense needs a tougher attitude and some guys that will flat-out smack you around. If Veach is serious about playing faster while also having Steelers' and Ravens' style defenses, then he better get guys like these 3 that are willing to hit people and hit them hard. Willis is fundamentally sound in coverage with good range and may be one of the best box defenders in the draft.
5. RB Jordan Scarlett, Florida (5'10" 215)
I have a feeling Scarlett will declare, as most solid RBs do after their junior year. Scarlett was in some trouble early on in his career at Florida and he'll have to make amends on that with NFL evaluators, but he has outstanding talent and should end up a steal for someone.
6. FS Kyle Gibson, Central Florida (5'11' 185)
Very quick safety with range and decent ball skills. Played a ton of single-high at UCF and was one of their best defenders. Good in coverage and good at flowing to the football but needs to put on more weight for hitting NFL players and keeping them down.
6. OL Sean Rawlings, Ole Miss (6'5" 294)
Very athletic offensive lineman with good technique. Will need to add good weight and strength at the pro level but is the type of player Reid tends to covet on the offensive line. Experience at tackle and center, but looks best on the inside and would be a good developmental player behind Reiter.
7. RB Tony Brooks-James, Oregon (5'9" 180)
Andy Reid's new play thing with a similar skillset to D'Anthony Thomas and may have more potential as a WR. Outsanding speed and agility. Ace kick return type.

Estimated Remaining Cap: $6.87m
Note: In this scenario, these transactions would leave KC with only $4.78m in projected cap space in 2020, which means changes would have to be made with guys like Justin Houston, Eric Fisher, Sammy Watkins, Cam Erving, and Daniel Sorensen for relief in some combination. I think extending Houston is likely, including a restructing of his 2020 salary into some bonus money such as 3 years with 16 of his 17 million converted to signing bonus which would free up $10.5m in 2020 (Think Terrell Suggs contract extension in 2014). I think Sorensen and Watkins would be the most likely cut candidates, while a Fisher restructure/extension and a Cam Erving release would also create more room.

Roster (Not representative of 53)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Spencer Ware, Darrel Williams, Jordan Scarlett, Tony Brooks-James (/WR)
FB: Anthony Sherman
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Deon Yelder
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Dieter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Andrew Wylie
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Cameron Erving, Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie
OC: Austin Reiter, Sean Rawlings, Jimmy Murray
DE: Chris Jones, Isaiah Buggs, Justin Hamilton, Joey Ivie
NT: Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams
OLB: Justin Houston, Dee Ford, Breeland Speaks, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Rob McCray
ILB: Mack Wilson, Anthony Hitchens, Dorian O'Daniel, Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland, Ulysees Gilbert III
CB: Kendall Fuller, Steven Nelson, E.J. Gaines, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
FS: Eric Murray, Jordan Lucas, Kyle Gibson
SS: Khari Willis, Daniel Sorensen, Armani Watts
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester
[Reply]
O.city 01:33 PM 12-12-2018
Just say no to Notre Dame.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 01:39 PM 12-12-2018
Originally Posted by O.city:
Just say no to Notre Dame.
Tillery is good, man.

And he'd be perfect alongside Jones. Those guys would be a serious handful to deal with. My only issue would be that I think Nnadi is a keeper and I'm not sure Tillery is a guy that is explosive enough to succeed as a 5-tech or even as a 4-3 DE.

If you flip to a 4-3, he could theoretically be your nose and Jones your UT, but where's that leave Nnadi? Maybe Nnadi at the nose and Tillery at UT w/ Houston and Jones on the edges? You could run a 'nascar' package where you take Nnadi out on 3rd down situations and slot Jones/Nnadi in the middle w/ Houston/Speaks on the edges?

He's a good prospect, though. In the end, I think we could find a way to put him to good use, especially if we traded away Ford. At that point you may reconsider putting Houston's hand on the ground.
[Reply]
The Franchise 01:47 PM 12-12-2018
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Tillery is good, man.

And he'd be perfect alongside Jones. Those guys would be a serious handful to deal with. My only issue would be that I think Nnadi is a keeper and I'm not sure Tillery is a guy that is explosive enough to succeed as a 5-tech or even as a 4-3 DE.

If you flip to a 4-3, he could theoretically be your nose and Jones your UT, but where's that leave Nnadi? Maybe Nnadi at the nose and Tillery at UT w/ Houston and Jones on the edges? You could run a 'nascar' package where you take Nnadi out on 3rd down situations and slot Jones/Nnadi in the middle w/ Houston/Speaks on the edges?

He's a good prospect, though. In the end, I think we could find a way to put him to good use, especially if we traded away Ford. At that point you may reconsider putting Houston's hand on the ground.
You don't think that you could put Tillery next to Nnadi in the 4-3 and move Jones out to the DE position?

Houston - Nnadi - Tillery - Jones
[Reply]
O.city 01:47 PM 12-12-2018
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Tillery is good, man.

And he'd be perfect alongside Jones. Those guys would be a serious handful to deal with. My only issue would be that I think Nnadi is a keeper and I'm not sure Tillery is a guy that is explosive enough to succeed as a 5-tech or even as a 4-3 DE.

If you flip to a 4-3, he could theoretically be your nose and Jones your UT, but where's that leave Nnadi? Maybe Nnadi at the nose and Tillery at UT w/ Houston and Jones on the edges? You could run a 'nascar' package where you take Nnadi out on 3rd down situations and slot Jones/Nnadi in the middle w/ Houston/Speaks on the edges?

He's a good prospect, though. In the end, I think we could find a way to put him to good use, especially if we traded away Ford. At that point you may reconsider putting Houston's hand on the ground.
I was just giving Pest shit since he's a golden domer.

I like Tillery fine. I'd rather invest at ILB but the DL does need some love.
[Reply]
The Franchise 01:52 PM 12-12-2018
Originally Posted by O.city:
I was just giving Pest shit since he's a golden domer.
So is DJ.
[Reply]
O.city 02:05 PM 12-12-2018
Wait, you mean theres more than one of you? Ugh.
[Reply]
The Franchise 02:12 PM 12-12-2018
Originally Posted by O.city:
Wait, you mean theres more than one of you? Ugh.
and Lonewolf.
[Reply]
Great Expectations 03:25 PM 12-12-2018
I don’t think our ILB situation would look so bad if we had capable safties behind them. We are in a good position to switch to a 4-3. I wish we were playing our rookies a little more this year because a) they might be better than what we are playing, b) they aren’t worse, and c) it would be easier to identify what our needs on defense are next year. Also, will we start a rookie on D next year?
[Reply]
Chris Meck 04:11 PM 12-12-2018
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Honestly, the only way I can forsee KC getting everything we want out of this offseason is to either let Ford walk or tag and trade him for a pick(s). I think it's more important to lock down Jones and Hill than it is Ford for the long-term. Ideally, you tag him and try to get at least a 2nd for him. I'd rather some space went to the secondary.
I agree.
[Reply]
Chris Meck 04:18 PM 12-12-2018
I like most of this; and IF we're keeping Sutton and the 3-4 I think it's close to being correct, although I know little about the specific draftees you outline, I like the picks on a positional basis.

I think you have to let Ford walk; he's too one dimensional and will be too expensive as a situational pass rusher, which is all he is, really. I think you need to restructure Houston as well. And I think it's time to cut bait with Berry post June 1.

I'm not worried about keeping Conley; I think he and Robinson are basically interchangeable. I think all of our CB's other than Fuller are JAG's and easily replaceable. I really want to sign one of the premier safeties in FA as well as develop Watts and an early pick.

And I think moving away from the 3-4 is optimal. a 4-3 with O'Daniel as a hybrid OLB/Box safety is a good idea.
[Reply]
Chargem 01:28 AM 12-13-2018
Another very interesting mock. What does this assume the cap is for 2019? I'm just wondering if it includes the announced cap uplift that was mentioned in the lounge yesterday
[Reply]
kccrow 05:49 PM 12-13-2018
Originally Posted by Chargem:
Another very interesting mock. What does this assume the cap is for 2019? I'm just wondering if it includes the announced cap uplift that was mentioned in the lounge yesterday
I use OTC cap estimate of 190m. I don't pay attention to 99% of what's in the lounge so I may have missed the "uplift" post. There's an "uplift" every season depending on the increase in revenues. The 2018 cap is 177,200,000. An increase to 190m assumes 7.25% growth, which is fairly consistent with recent growth.
[Reply]
Chargem 06:43 PM 12-14-2018
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I use OTC cap estimate of 190m. I don't pay attention to 99% of what's in the lounge so I may have missed the "uplift" post. There's an "uplift" every season depending on the increase in revenues. The 2018 cap is 177,200,000. An increase to 190m assumes 7.25% growth, which is fairly consistent with recent growth.
I think the lounge figure was around $190m, part of me was hoping you underestimated and there was more room due to uplift.
[Reply]
O.city 09:42 AM 12-15-2018
I’d imagine they’re gonna get aggressive on the defensive side

Trade picks for corners, sign some free agents etc.

Jalen Ramsey and Earl Thomas
[Reply]
kccrow 05:18 PM 12-15-2018
Originally Posted by The Pest:
I'd rather keep our picks and take a guy like Germaine Pratt (ILB) out of N.C. State in the 2nd round with one of our two picks.

1. Jerry Tillery, DT/DE, Notre Dame
2. Germaine Pratt, ILB, N.C. State
2. Amani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State
3. Khaleke Hudson, S, Michigan
I'd much rather Dye out of Oregon than Pratt, but that's my opinion. If Oruwariye runs at all good at the combine then I'd have to think he'll be a 1st rounder or early 2nd at worst.
[Reply]
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