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Nzoner's Game Room>Projecting output for 2022 receivers
cmh6476 12:04 PM 08-19-2022
I posted this on a fantasy message board to engage some dialogue, but curious what you all are expecting after following camp for the first couple weeks and 1 game into the preseason:

Originally Posted by :
Last year we saw:

Tyreek Hill - 111 Receptions, 1,239 yards, 9 TD (159 targets)

Demarcus Robinson - 25/264/3 (41)

Mecole Hardman - 59/693/2 (83)

Byron Pringle - 42/568/5 (60)

Marcus Kemp - 2/24/0 (5)

Josh Gordon - 5/32/1 (14)

And then there's Travis Kelce (92/1,125/8 on 134 targets)

So you basically have 180 receptions, 2,095 yards and 17 TDs from guys who aren't on the team any longer.



From the Chiefs official depth chart, it appears they are listed in the following order:

1. JuJu Smith-Schuster - last year with Pit 15/ 129/ 0 on 28 targets in 5 games

2. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - last year with GB 26/ 430/ 3 on 55 targets in 11 games

3. Mecole Hardman

4. Skyy Moore

5. Justin Watson


Just curious if you think there will be one guy that kind of creeps up into that #2 type role on fantasy rosters.

From early camp reports, the most glowing reports have been on Skyy Moore and Justin Watson. I think what's interesting is that you have no real front-runner, as every guy is new to the team, new to learning the system and building rapport with Mahomes, and every guy is being given a chance to show what they can do. The exception is obviously Hardman who has been around a few years and maybe has a chance to excel now that Tyreek is gone, but I don't know that he will. If I had to make some early preseason projections, I might go something like:

Kelce - 100/ 1,200/ 8

Smith-Schuster - 65/ 580/ 4

Valdes-Scantling - 45/ 720/ 3

Hardman - 70/ 810/ 4

Moore - 50/ 650/ 5

Watson - 25/ 280/ 2

Accounting for the four new additions here, this is projecting 185 receptions, 2,230 yards and 14 TDs (compared to the 180 receptions, 2,095 yards and 17 TDs from 2021 that I referenced earlier from players not with the team).

[Reply]
ThaVirus 12:55 PM 08-19-2022
Originally Posted by cmh6476:
Kelce - 100/ 1,200/ 8

Smith-Schuster - 65/ 580/ 4

Valdes-Scantling - 45/ 720/ 3

Hardman - 70/ 810/ 4

Moore - 50/ 650/ 5

Watson - 25/ 280/ 2:
This adds up to a little over 4,200 yards without including any of the RBs, backup TEs or potential #6 or #7 WRs.

So I'd imagine you're expecting Mahomes to go over 5,000 yards? If not, get damned close?
[Reply]
cmh6476 02:18 PM 08-19-2022
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
This adds up to a little over 4,200 yards without including any of the RBs, backup TEs or potential #6 or #7 WRs.

So I'd imagine you're expecting Mahomes to go over 5,000 yards? If not, get damned close?
seems realistic to me, especially if he plays 17 games.
[Reply]
cmh6476 02:42 PM 08-19-2022
2017 (13 games) - 58 rec, 917 yard, 7 TD (79 targets)

2018 (16) - 11/ 1,426/ 7 (166)

2019 (12) - 42/ 552/ 3 (70)

2020 (16) - 97/ 831/ 9 (128)

2021 (5) - 15/ 129/ 0 (28)



I guess looking at this, if there's a guy I probably have projected low with the ceiling and opportunity to be the No. 1 guy, maybe it is JuJu.
[Reply]
Couch-Potato 10:54 PM 08-19-2022
Kelce - 100 / 1,100 / 7

JuJu - 70 / 910 / 6

Moore - 65 / 820 / 5

MVS - 45 / 600 / 4

Hardman -50 / 530 / 3

Watson - 25 / 280 / 2
[Reply]
Halfcan 08:47 AM 08-20-2022
Kelce - 125 / 1,800 / 20

JuJu - 75 / 1000 / 10

Moore - 75 / 1000 / 10

MVS - 45 / 1000 / 10

Hardman -100 / 1000 / 10

Watson - 75 / 1000 / 10
[Reply]
Best22 09:04 AM 08-20-2022
Kelce: 1310

JJSS: 866

Hardman: 712

MVS: 531

Moore: 439

CEH: 212

Pacheco: 156

McKinnon: 100

Watson: 97

Gray: 113

Fortson: 77

That’s 4,600 yards
[Reply]
smithandrew051 09:28 AM 08-20-2022
Kelce: 2,100
Juju: 1,400
Hardman: 1,350
MVS: 1,100
Moore: 950 (rookie, so I’m staying conservative)
Gray: 700
Fortson 500 (only plays 3 games before getting injured)
[Reply]
Pablo 10:00 AM 08-20-2022
Kelce 104/1220/9
JuJu 68/805/7
Moore 52/620/4
MVS 40/585/4
Hardman 53/710/3
Watson 20/310/2

I guess after looking at this and then accounting for the other pass catchers I'm gonna put Pat at something like 5,025 and 38TDs. Sounds doable
[Reply]
BWillie 10:14 AM 08-20-2022
If Hardman is our leading WR it means we've had injuries and we aren't going to the playoffs
[Reply]
cmh6476 11:20 AM 02-06-2023
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
This adds up to a little over 4,200 yards without including any of the RBs, backup TEs or potential #6 or #7 WRs.

So I'd imagine you're expecting Mahomes to go over 5,000 yards? If not, get damned close?
5250 when all was said and done.

Kelce and JuJu exceeded my expectations, Hardman didn't but was hurt, and MVS was about what I expected.

What's more interesting will be what they do next year. Chiefs have the best and 6th receivers in the free agent class based on this. Not really a lot to get excited about from this crappy list.

https://www.fftoday.com/nfl/freeagents.php?o=1&PosID=30
[Reply]
ThaVirus 11:25 AM 02-06-2023
Originally Posted by cmh6476:
5250 when all was said and done.

Kelce and JuJu exceeded my expectations, Hardman didn't but was hurt, and MVS was about what I expected.

What's more interesting will be what they do next year. Chiefs have the best and 6th receivers in the free agent class based on this. Not really a lot to get excited about from this crappy list.

https://www.fftoday.com/nfl/freeagents.php?o=1&PosID=30
Good call.

I don't recall my thoughts on the subject but reading my original comment leads me to believe I was skeptical.
[Reply]
smithandrew051 11:26 AM 02-06-2023
Originally Posted by smithandrew051:
Kelce: 2,100
Juju: 1,400
Hardman: 1,350
MVS: 1,100
Moore: 950 (rookie, so I’m staying conservative)
Gray: 700
Fortson 500 (only plays 3 games before getting injured)
If not for the refs, I would’ve nailed this.
[Reply]
cmh6476 11:36 AM 02-06-2023
2023, getting the band back together edition:

1. Toney
2. MVS
3. Moore
4. Pringle
5. Robinson
[Reply]
Couch-Potato 03:23 PM 02-06-2023
Originally Posted by Couch-Potato:
Kelce - 100 / 1,100 / 7

JuJu - 70 / 910 / 6

Moore - 65 / 820 / 5

MVS - 45 / 600 / 4

Hardman -50 / 530 / 3

Watson - 25 / 280 / 2

Kelce went for 1,338
JuJu went for 933
Moore only 250
MVS did 687
Hardman 297
Watson 315

I was pretty damn close accept for McKinnon got 500 yards I thought would go to Moore.
[Reply]
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