For now, it seems like a novelty - cars that can operate independently of human control, safely cruising down streets thanks to an array of sensors and pinpoint GPS navigation.
But if the technology avoids getting crushed by government regulators and product liability lawsuits, writes the Federalist's Dan McLaughlin, it could prompt a cultural shift similar to the early 20th century move away from horses as the primary means of transportation.
First and foremost, he writes, the spread of driverless cars will likely greatly reduce the number of traffic accidents - which currently cost Americans $871b (£510b) a year.
"A truly driverless road would not be accident-free, given the number of accidents that would still be caused by mechanical and computer errors, weather conditions, pedestrians, bicyclists, motorcyclists and sheer random chance," he says. "But it would make the now-routine loss of life and limb on the roads far rarer."
Computer-operated cars would eventually reshape car design, he says, as things like windshields - "a large and vulnerable piece of glass" - become less necessary. Drivers will be able to sit wherever they'd like in their cars, which could make car interiors more like mobile lounges than like cockpits.
The age required to operate a driverless car is likely to drop, he says. There could be an impact on the legal drinking age, as well, as preventing drunk driving was one of the prime justifications for the US-wide setting minimum age to purchase alcohol at 21 years old.
There's other possible economic fallout, McLaughlin contends, such as a restructuring of the auto insurance industry, the obsolescence of taxi drivers and lower ratings for drive-time radio programmes.
The high-tech security state will also get boost, he writes, as GPS-tagged cars will be easier to track, making life difficult for fugitives and car thieves. Police will also be able to move resources away from operations like traffic enforcement.
Of course, he writes, the towns that rely on speed traps to fund their government services will be facing budget shortfalls. Privacy advocates could also get an unexpected boost, he notes, since traffic stops are one of the main justifications for police vehicle searches.
Finally, there's the prospect of the as-yet-unrealised futurist dream of flying cars. With computer-controlled vehicles that strictly follow traffic rules, McLaughlin says, "the potential for three-dimensional roads becomes a lot less scary and more a matter of simply solving the technological challenge".
Where we're going, we may not need roads after all. [Reply]
Just thinking through it, these things WILL get figured out in the next couple decades. It could happen very quickly, or it may take a while, but it'll get done. The technology is already too close to a reality for it not to happen.
So given that, the implications are incredible to think about. Off the top of my head (and summarizing some from the article and elsewhere), here are a few. These are all, of course, purely theoretical depending on how things work out.
Cars could take kids to and from school on their own, freeing up parents.
People who are visually impaired would have a way to get around much more.efficiently, potentially increasing the portion of blind people who can reasonably work.
Traffic congestion could be reduced dramatically, as human reactions are the cause of a huge amount of it currently.
Drunk driving could be reduced dramatically.
Car sharing could become the norm since you could potentially have a huge fleet of cars-on-demand to show up when you need them.
The elderly could stay mobile much further in their lives, improving longevity and quality of life dramatically.
It's fascinating to consider all the possibilities. If it works perfectly, I think it could be as big of a cultural revolution as the internet. [Reply]
Just make sure they have bumpers on them..like the bowling alley. Those kind of bumpers. But it sounds like a good idea as long as they're eco friendly. [Reply]
I've always thought the cars in iRobot are a pretty good idea of what we'll see in the future. Other than the manual override mode though. No way any they would let you override a car when it's going 100-200 MPH which is what I think the speeds would be like on highways. Maybe on side roads and normal streets, but never on highways IMO. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Perhaps not yet. But Google's car has logged 700k miles with the only accident being rear-ended by a human. It's gonna get there.
I was actually arguing that if a Google car level effort would be put forward on building a robot golfer, that it would be able to shoot 36 to 45 for 18 holes. Some were saying that the best robot that could be built would struggle to break 100. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Just thinking through it, these things WILL get figured out in the next couple decades. It could happen very quickly, or it may take a while, but it'll get done. The technology is already too close to a reality for it not to happen.
So given that, the implications are incredible to think about. Off the top of my head (and summarizing some from the article and elsewhere), here are a few. These are all, of course, purely theoretical depending on how things work out.
Cars could take kids to and from school on their own, freeing up parents.
People who are visually impaired would have a way to get around much more.efficiently, potentially increasing the portion of blind people who can reasonably work.
Traffic congestion could be reduced dramatically, as human reactions are the cause of a huge amount of it currently.
Drunk driving could be reduced dramatically.
Car sharing could become the norm since you could potentially have a huge fleet of cars-on-demand to show up when you need them.
The elderly could stay mobile much further in their lives, improving longevity and quality of life dramatically.
It's fascinating to consider all the possibilities. If it works perfectly, I think it could be as big of a cultural revolution as the internet.
Roadside hotels would go out of business, because all of the cars would have places to sleep. Maybe all of the cars would be small RVs for that matter.
Since you can sleep in the car, more people will take long road trips, which means the lines at Disneyland will get longer.
Pizza delivery will go away because you'll just send your car to pick it up.
Cars could come with buttons with pre-set destinations like "home" and "park" and "office". Dogs could be trained to push those buttons so they can travel around and stick their heads out the window or play in the park any time they want. [Reply]
Originally Posted by cdcox:
Impossible. If a robot golfer can't break par, there is no way it will ever be able to drive a car as well as a human.
Google has been running driverless cars for several years now with great success. Wait until they reduce the production costs enough to mass produce these cars/trucks/etc. [Reply]
