https://theathletic.com/2450221/2021...weeks-of-camp/
Royals roster insight: What we’ve heard in the first three weeks of camp
by
Alec Lewis
Originally Posted by :
SURPRISE, Ariz. — There have been so many sounds these last few weeks on the back fields in Surprise: Jorge Soler’s bat whacking baseballs into the sky; third-base coach Vance Wilson directing pitchers during fielding practice; Salvador Pérez hitting a ball to the houses and yelling, “That’s a homer, dog!”
Then there has been an occasional one of these, aimed at a reporter: “Shhhh!”
The shushes have usually come when things are quiet. They come after the players have left the field and the work has ended. Sometimes a coach has said it in passing. Other times, it’s been a player. Always in the context of how good this Royals team — at full health — might actually be.
“Shhhh!”
The secret may not be so safe here in The Athletic, but nationally, it likely is … for now. It’s easy to say it’s just spring training, but the Royals’ positive momentum from the end of the 2020 season has carried over to the offseason and into 2021. The Royals lead the Cactus League both in the standings (11-3) and in run differential (+29). Veterans such as Mike Minor have contributed. Youngsters such as Nick Pratto have, too. Oh, and there’s that Bobby Witt Jr. guy.
Three weeks into camp, here are a few thoughts based on what we’ve seen and gathered from conversations with club officials and opposing scouts. We’ll begin with the bullpen:
1. Before spring training, the minor-league signing of Wade Davis dominated the conversation about the bullpen. Davis, who gave up 10 runs in 4 1/3 innings in 2020, has controlled his fastball this spring, which has been a positive sign. But another right-handed reliever on a minor-league deal has arguably impressed more: Brad Brach.
Spring training had begun by the time the Royals signed Brach, a 34-year-old righty who posted sub-3.59 ERAs every season from 2013-18. He first pitched this spring in an intrasquad setting; some young Royals hitters were whiffing almost laughably at Brach’s cutter and change-up. Those whiffs have continued as Brach has entered real games.
It may not be beautiful, but only seven pitchers in 2020 released the ball from an angle closer to the third-base dugout — which signals a serious challenge for righties.
“Dayton (Moore, the Royals general manager) and I talk about this a lot: Having that guy who has that different look,” manager Mike Matheny said. “That’s a different look.”
For that, Brach may be in line for a big-league spot out of camp, though it’s a bit crowded back there: Greg Holland, Jesse Hahn, Josh Staumont and Scott Barlow appear to be locked in for spots. Kyle Zimmer is out of options, meaning he’ll likely make the club out of camp. There’s also Tyler Zuber, Jake Newberry and Richard Lovelady, among others.
2. An even lesser-known pitcher has caught eyes in camp: Jake Brentz.
The 26-year-old lefty, from Ballwin, Mo., throws in the upper 90s. So why would the Pittsburgh Pirates release him, as they did in 2019? Fastball control, or lack thereof.
However, some of the best pitchers in history — Sandy Koufax, to use an example for context, not at all as a comparison — didn’t control the ball well until they were 26 years old. Brentz has a slider and change-up that play alongside a fastball that some scouts knock due to its spin-specific characteristics, such as axis. But Brentz’s velocity should keep him in the big-league bullpen conversation as long as he’s controlling his location.
3. Jakob Junis pitched in a “B” game Saturday against the Texas Rangers. His line — 3 1/3 innings pitched and three runs given up — wasn’t great. But here’s the thing about pitching lines this time of year: They don’t indicate the pitches he was throwing, nor the pitches he wasn’t.
Junis’ newest weapon, the cutter, has proven effective against big-leaguers this spring. His slider’s history speaks for itself. Comfortable with his arsenal, Junis focused Saturday on a developing change-up and two-seam fastball. So the results of that session don’t tell the whole story.
Taking spring training as a whole, Junis has received rave reviews from club officials and scouts alike. The cutter, many believe, will be dangerous against hitters. Now it’s a matter of role. He’s built up to three innings, which has always been the plan. Will the Royals keep him going? Or will they have him back off, leaving him fitting best for the bullpen?
It’s an interesting question, and one that ties to the rotation.
4. Brad Keller, Mike Minor, Brady Singer, Kris Bubic and Danny Duffy look like locks to start games for the Royals when camp breaks. What are Junis’ odds of starting and/or Ervin Santana’s chances of making the roster? The answer might hinge on the possibility of a six-man rotation.
“I’m open,” Matheny said. “That’s something Dayton and I have had conversations about. And we’ll continue to figure out what’s going to be best for each individual player to protect them on the health side. But also to give our team the best shot each night.”
The Royals won’t even need a fifth starter until mid-April. Then, though, the schedule gets thick with 12 games in a row. Maybe that’s where Santana or Junis in a starting role makes sense. Another factor: Singer, Bubic, Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar haven’t pitched tons of innings in recent years. A six-man rotation could bridge that gap.
5. Speaking of Lynch and Kowar, how have they looked this spring? As usual, the answer lies in their fastball control and command.
When both have been good for Kowar, he’s utilized the change-up that would be a devastating big-league pitch right now. When both have been good for Lynch, he’s effectively thrown his change-up and two breaking balls. (Lynch manipulates his grip on the breaking balls, often leading to curveball depth on the slider — a la Brad Keller.)
It’s easy to look at game-by-game results with each pitcher, but scouts don’t look it that way, so we won’t either. Kowar’s continued development is going to be about confidence with the curveball (a playable pitch) and fastball command, especially if he’s going to be a starter. Lynch, another lefty who will take time to develop, is primed for a top-of-the-rotation spot at some point if he can consistently repeat his delivery.
The same element is going dictate Jon Heasley, Austin Cox and Jonathan Bowlan’s paths. Scouts have been impressed with Heasley’s ability to work quickly, Cox’s ability to pitch to both sides and Bowlan’s quiet mechanics. Each speaks to how successful a 2018 MLB Draft the Royals had.
6. We’ll move from pitching prospects to hitting prospects, starting with Nick Pratto, who homered twice Saturday. The wind can blow pretty good in Surprise, and the ball flies in Arizona, but Pratto’s contact, specifically on the second homer, speaks to the strides he’s made.
The Chicago Cubs pitcher, Michael Ruckerm threw him a 94 mph fastball up in the zone. Pratto, who swung and missed constantly in 2019, brought his barrel to the pitch and crushed the ball toward center field. A larger sample size will tell the tale of how far Pratto truly has come, but scouts buy it to this point.
7. Kyle Isbel is one of Pratto’s closest friends on the club, and scouts and officials have spoken highly of him lately. He’s a left-handed hitter with a compact swing who has given a number of scouts flashbacks to another era. “Ballplayer” and “throwback traits” have been thrown around. Isbel doesn’t get too high or too low; he simply plays. It’s hard to imagine him not getting a shot when an opportunity arises for him to play every day.
8. MJ Melendez has long been viewed as the top catching prospect within the Royals organization, and for good reason. He’s a former second-round pick and the son of a coach. Melendez’s aptitude is clear. A late start to big-league spring training has affected his timing, but it’s also allowed the club to provide more opportunities to another catching prospect, whom the Royals added to the 40-man roster this winter: Sebastian Rivero.
Matheny has continuously raved about Rivero’s receiving ability, and even Royals starter Brad Keller said recently Rivero could catch in the big leagues now. The bat has long been a question, but Rivero showed more pop at the alternate site in 2020. It seems to have translated. He homered last week, then spoke to reporters afterward, mentioning his focus, and how he gets to work with his favorite plate, Salvador Perez, on a daily basis.
Rivero is one to keep an eye on this season.
9. We could talk about Bobby Witt Jr.’s 484-foot home run, his speed, or even his versatility in the infield. Because those elements of the 20-year-old’s game have been hammered home already, though, this might be the time to talk Witt’s ability to adjust pitch-by-pitch in the batter’s box.
Veteran hitters such as Whit Merrifield do this. They see a fastball in and expect a slider away. They notice a pitch is breaking less than they thought and adjust. A veteran scout noticed this quickly with Witt. Packaged with everything else, he was impressed, to say the least — enough to liken what Witt’s done to what a man named Juan Soto did during his rookie campaign with the Washington Nationals.
Once again, comparisons are dangerous, so we’ll use this one to provide context to the question: When will Witt debut? He’s only had 164 minor-league at-bats. For reference, Soto had more than 450 in the minors. He’d raked at every level, leaving few internal questions about if he’d accomplished enough by the time he arrived in the bigs.
When the Nationals promoted Soto, two of their starting outfielders were injured. Another top prospect was hurt. Two other utility players had season-ending injuries. To top it off, the Nationals were in the thick of a competitive National League East race. The point: For the Royals to push Witt before more minor-league time, a lot would have to happen.
10. Bouncing from shortstop to shortstop, Adalberto Mondesi now has a handful of games under his belt. Matheny had mentioned Mondesi looked more like the hitter he showed he could be at the end of the 2020 season (as opposed to the beginning), and Mondesi’s swings have reinforced that.
The 25-year-old switch-hitter has taken great passes at the ball, per scouts, showcasing the ability so many have long seen. For the short term, this means even stronger potential for the Royals lineup.
Mondesi is said to be in a good place, and the Royals haven’t wavered over in the years from their belief nor commitment in him. What this might mean for a potential long-term marriage is a question that remains unanswered.
11. Nicky Lopez is a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman, and the Royals value premium defense more than most. But clubs that want to win need big-leaguers who hit, and Lopez, unfortunately, has not done that to this point.
He’s 26 years old and only has 548 career at-bats, so it wouldn’t be fair to move on yet, especially considering Lopez didn’t struggle at the plate in the minors. He spent the offseason on his swing, learning pressure points throughout each hand, shortening his stroke. Still, he’s going to have to produce in situational opportunities.
If he doesn’t, the Royals have Hanser Alberto, who has not only proved capable at third base and second but who has also been a boon for the clubhouse. There’s also the potential that Kelvin Gutierrez or even Emmanuel Rivera could play third, moving Hunter Dozier to the outfield and Merrifield to second base. As we’ve discussed so many times, that’s the benefit of Dozier and Merrifield’s versatility.
12. Pérez and Soler have already been mentioned. Both players have swung the bat well this spring. Both players are also entering the final seasons of their contracts. We’ve written this since the 2020 season ended, but their futures will hover in the background of this 2021 season, regardless of how well things could go.
(Shhh!)
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Benintendi scratched
Andrew Benintendi felt some lower back soreness on Monday morning, prompting the Royals to take him out of the lineup.
The Royals aren’t concerned with Benintendi’s health; the left fielder has been taking a lot of swings, which can lead to soreness this early in spring.
He’ll take advantage of a day or two off, just as outfielder Michael A. Taylor did late last week before getting back into the lineup on Monday.
In Benintendi’s place on Monday was Bubba Starling, who hit a first-pitch grand slam on Sunday night against the Dodgers and followed with a first-inning home run on Monday.
The Kansas City native and former first-round Draft pick is a non-roster invite this year fighting for a spot on the Royals’ bench at some point this season, especially with what he brings as a defensive replacement.
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